Our starting pitching rankings will be split into two parts. Today's edition will examine only the top five tiers of starters, as determined by our staff's composite rankings (which differ a bit from my own evaluations where noted). Using the composite rankings to guide discussion helps to highlight personal preferences while also providing a more balanced view of the players' values. These rankings are for standard 5x5 leagues.

You should adjust these rankings to account for your league-- in shallower leagues or formats with daily transactions, upside pitchers are worth investing in since you can replace high-floor, low-ceiling players from the waiver wire. In deeper leagues or those with very infrequent waivers, high-floor pitchers are more important, as the wire will likely be barren and it'll be a challenge to effectively stream pitchers.

In weekly leagues, so long as they aren't too deep, it often makes sense to target a few elite pitchers to head your rotation and allow the two-start streamers to serve as depth; it makes little sense to carry high-floor pitchers whose value will often be outweighed by streamers. With these tips in mind, we move onto the players themselves.

 

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Tier One

And unsurprisingly, Clayton Kershaw occupies the first tier by himself. He'll be 28 on Opening Day, and over the last three years, he's sported a 1.92 ERA, 772 strikeouts (10.4 K/9) with a 0.886 ERA and 53 wins. In a word, WOW!

Tier Two

The second tier consists of Scherzer, Sale, Arietta, Greinke, Price, deGrom and Fernandez. I have both Arietta (even though my Orioles traded him away) and Fernandez ranked much higher than my peers. Even though the Cubs are going to manage Arietta's innings due to his enormous jump last year, his numbers are too much better than the others (aside from Fernandez) for me to rank him lower. Last year, Arietta posted a 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and a 22-6 record. The year before, he had a 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. While he will strike out fewer batters than Sale or Scherzer, in year-long leagues many participants may fail to meet their inning limits.

My third-ranked pitcher is my favorite non-Oriole: Jose Fernandez. At age 20 (yes 20!), Fernandez posted a 2.19 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and a 0.979 ERA. Going into his last start of 2014 before the injury that ultimately required Tommy John Surgery, he had a 1.74 ERA, 12.5 K/9, and a 0.90 WHIP. Last year, while battling a biceps injury and not being too far removed from his surgery, he still posted 11 K/9, a 1.16 ERA, a 2.92 ERA and a 6-1 record.

Another year removed from Tommy John, the sky is the limit. If not for his innings limit, I would place him ahead of Arietta. Despite liking these two pitchers the best out of the second tier, when factoring in risk with upside, I view all the pitchers in the second tier as somewhat similar in value. I would choose whoever falls to me, rather than reaching . But because Fernandez is currently the eighth pitcher coming off the board, I expect him to be the best value.

Tier Three

In the third tier, the two pitchers I like significantly more than my peers are Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg. While second half performance is usually a worse predictor of the future than full season performance, there is a reason to view Harvey's and Strasburg's second halves differently. In Harvey's case, he was further removed from his recent Tommy John surgery, posting a 2.19 ERA, 0.923 ERA, and 9.1 K/9.

In the year before his injury, he posted a 2.27 ERA with a 0.931 ERA and 9.6 K/9. As those impressive stat lines are remarkably similar, that might be who he is. Strasburg is a player who I admittedly have overrated over the years, so take this one with a grain of salt. However, here is why I am bullish. After battling a lingering injury to start the year, in the second half he posted a 1.90 ERA, a 0.754 ERA, and 12.5 K/9. Yikes! While Strasburg has always performed below my expectations, he still has a nice floor given his career 10.4 K/9 and 1.09 ERA to go with a 3.09 ERA.

Currently being drafted as 12th and 13th pitchers, these two can be considered value plays. On the flip side in this tier, Keuchel appears to be drafted way too highly for me. Yes, he won the Cy Young. However, this is 5x5. He has never struck out a batter per inning or had a ERA under one. As such, I feel my peers are ranking him too highly due to his real world performance overshadowing his fantasy performance. Why not wait a bit longer and get a similar fantasy player in Sonny Gray for cheaper?

Tier Four

In the fourth tier, the biggest error to me is ranking Darvish too highly. Even if nothing goes wrong, he isn't expected back until mid-May or June. On top of that, he likely will experience the initial struggles that others returning from Tommy John have. On the other side of the equation, I have Danny Salazar pegged higher than my peers. Last year, he had a 9.5 K/9 rate, a 1.13 ERA and a 3.45 ERA. In his career, he has a 9.9 K/9 ratio. In front of an improved Indians' defense, and at 26 years of age, he has room for further improvement.

After this fourth tier, our rankings start to diverge more noticeably. It is probably not a coincidence that this is the point where I determine that non-upside plays are too close to what is available on the waiver wire. I'd rather gamble on someone who can outperform the waiver wire by a decent margin than use a relatively high draft pick to get the same value.

Tier Five

Because of that calculus, I rank Zimmerman and Quintana lower than my peers, and McCullers higher. Zimmerman's line last year consisted of a 3.66 ERA, 1.205 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and a 13-10 record in the NL East. Those aren't numbers to get too excited about, and now he will be facing much tougher AL lineups. While he had a good 2014, it stands out like an outlier from his consistent career numbers, which resemble his career averages of 3.32 ERA, 1.16 ERA and 7.4 K/9. Switching to the AL, and at age 30, I'd bet he performs close to a waiver wire streaming option in standard leagues.

Quintana likewise lacks upside. He's pitched four seasons, and by combining his best numbers from each category in any season we get a 1.22 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and a 3.32 ERA with nine wins and six losses. While that is well-rounded, it's hardly an impressive line given that it is his best work over four years. Lance McCullers, on the other hand, gets me excited. The guy wore Batman cleats in his debut; that shows charisma and the type of self-confidence that I want in my upside plays.

Even though he wore down as the season progressed, presumably due to a career high in innings pitched, he finished with a 3.22 ERA, 1.186 ERA, and 9.2 K/9. At the break, he boasted a 2.56 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and a 1.10 ERA. Based on his age (only 22 years old), his overall solid numbers, and his improved numbers when fresh, I like his breakout potential for 2016.

While that concludes today's analysis, check in tomorrow for my starting pitcher value picks and sleepers among those rated in the sixth tier and below. Starting pitching gems are often uncovered late in the draft, and tomorrow they will be identified.

 

Starting Pitcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (February)

Ranking	Tier	Name	Brad	Max	Kyle	Nick	Harris	Jeff	Bill
1	1	Clayton Kershaw	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	2	Max Scherzer	2	2	2	2	2	4	4
3	2	Chris Sale	4	3	3	3	3	5	2
4	2	Jake Arrieta	3	4	4	4	12	2	3
5	2	Zack Greinke	5	5	9	7	5	8	5
6	2	Jacob deGrom	9	7	5	5	9	6	6
7	2	David Price	8	6	6	6	4	10	8
8	2	Jose Fernandez	18	8	7	8	6	3	14
9	3	Madison Bumgarner	10	11	10	10	7	11	13
10	3	Dallas Keuchel	6	9	11	9	16	17	7
11	3	Gerrit Cole	13	14	8	15	11	13	9
12	3	Noah Syndergaard	11	15	12	16	15	12	10
13	3	Felix Hernandez	7	10	18	14	13	18	12
14	3	Stephen Strasburg	17	21	13	11	10	9	16
15	3	Matt Harvey	16	16	16	18	8	7	17
16	3	Chris Archer	14	13	14	17	14	16	11
17	3	Corey Kluber	12	12	15	13	19	15	15
18	3	Carlos Carrasco	15	17	17	12	21	14	18
19	4	Jon Lester	19	22	19	21	24	19	20
20	4	Cole Hamels	25	20	21	19	20	24	21
21	4	Johnny Cueto	21	23	20	26	18	20	23
22	4	Sonny Gray	23	19	25	22	17	26	19
23	4	Adam Wainwright	20	18	26	20	26	25	25
24	4	Carlos Martinez	22	24	23	25	28	21	24
25	4	Danny Salazar	27	26	24	23	32	22	28
26	4	Tyson Ross	24	25	31	29	22	23	30
27	4	Marcus Stroman	30	28	27	27	23	31	31
28	4	Francisco Liriano	26	33	29	28	27	27	36
29	4	Yu Darvish	43	30	22	24	32	49	22
30	5	Masahiro Tanaka	39	27	35	30	33	32	29
31	5	Michael Wacha	37	31	33	32	31	34	32
32	5	Jordan Zimmermann	28	32	38	35	25	53	27
33	5	Jose Quintana	31	36	30	36	29	46	34
34	5	Jake Odorizzi	32	38	32	44	33	28	39
35	5	Luis Severino	29	29	44	34	41	44	26
36	5	Scott Kazmir	36	34	37	38	38	37	33
37	5	Garrett Richards	38	39	39	39	35	36	37
38	5	Lance McCullers	34	50	28	41	42	29	40
39	5	Michael Pineda	52	37	41	31	44	40	35
40	5	Jeff Samardzija	35	42	46	47	34	35	49
41	5	Patrick Corbin	42	47	34	33	54	39	42
42	6	Justin Verlander	40	49	51	45	50	30	46
43	6	Shelby Miller	51	35	54	52	30	61	38
44	6	Steven Matz	64	41	47	40	49	38	44
45	6	Gio Gonzalez	45	46	50	51	46	47	45
46	6	John Lackey	33	48	56	48	51	50	55
47	6	Raisel Iglesias	59	51	43	46	48	48	51
48	6	Hyun-Jin Ryu	49	45	48	56	53	51	47
49	6	Drew Smyly	66	43	57	43	47	33	60
50	6	Clay Buchholz	41	54	42	49	58	56	56
51	6	James Shields	61	44	58	58	45	41	52
52	6	Yordano Ventura	44	47	53	53	56	58	48
53	6	Collin McHugh	46	52	52	57	57	54	50
54	6	Joe Ross	92	40	36	37	55	57	57
55	6	Hisashi Iwakuma	54	61	40	55	52	60	58
56	6	Taijuan Walker	60	67	45	50	43	62	54
57	6	Carlos Rodon	71	57	59	54	39	45	64
58	6	Jaime Garcia	48	53	64	42	73	67	43
59	6	Kyle Hendricks	62	63	55	59	62	42	62
60	6	Alex Cobb	81	46	49	68	59	71	41
61	7	Wei-Yin Chen	53	55	74	60	60	52	63
62	7	Eduardo Rodriguez	57	56	62	61	69	59	61
63	7	Julio Teheran	63	59	72	66	40	63	66
64	7	Andrew Cashner	50	60	73	69	65	72	59
65	7	Nathan Eovaldi	47	74	60	63	75	70	68
66	7	Brett Anderson	56	58	70	62	78	66	78
67	7	Andrew Heaney	58	65	65	71	80	68	65
68	7	Anibal Sanchez	67	68	67	72	63	74	74
69	8	Robbie Ray	55	69	61	70	88	76	71
70	8	Jason Hammel	73	70	63	75	83	73	53
71	8	Aaron Nola	68	62	69	77	72	75	72
72	8	Ian Kennedy	77	75	78	64	66	65	77
73	8	Marco Estrada	65	64	71	79	76	78	76
74	8	Jimmy Nelson	70	66	76	73	74	77	73
75	8	Mike Fiers	72	79	75	103	61	43	84
76	8	Kevin Gausman	85	76	79	88	71	64	70
77	8	Kenta Maeda	80	77	101	65	92	55	-
78	8	Alex Wood	82	82	68	104	68	79	79
79	8	Anthony DeSclafani	89	91	66	74	97	80	69
80	8	Mike Leake	86	78	87	86	64	82	85
81	8	Trevor Bauer	98	72	85	85	106	90	67
82	9	Erasmo Ramirez	-	95	77	67	114	92	83
83	9	J.A. Happ	-	92	83	81	87	86	102
84	9	Derek Holland	74	83	97	102	-	-	89
85	9	Taylor Jungmann	113	88	88	89	-	88	75
86	9	Nate Karns	-	81	80	93	115	93	82
87	9	Wade Miley	75	98	92	109	95	69	103
88	9	Henry Owens	91	94	91	76	119	91	80
89	9	Jesse Hahn	109	71	109	82	79	112	88
90	9	Edinson Volquez	84	84	94	91	96	111	90
91	9	Yovani Gallardo	94	89	102	97	67	115	87
92	9	James Paxton	88	103	96	96	90	83	99
93	9	Jake Peavy	115	97	84	95	99	87	81
94	10	Daniel Norris	99	93	-	111	70	85	109
95	10	Drew Hutchison	-	111	81	80	-	94	107
96	10	Jerad Eickhoff	83	100	95	78	118	95	95
97	10	Chris Heston	122	86	-	84	91	-	94
98	10	Kris Medlen	-	73	89	118	86	96	116
99	10	Mat Latos	117	96	82	87	102	102	92
100	10	Ubaldo Jimenez	93	99	93	106	98	-	93
101	10	Tyler Duffey	78	80	111	90	120	109	96
102	10	Erik Johnson	106	104	90	108	-	89	91
103	10	Ervin Santana	110	87	99	83	112	110	86
104	10	Zack Wheeler	108	85	105	107	89	116	98
105	10	Phil Hughes	114	90	103	94	101	107	100
106	11	Jesse Chavez	-	-	86	99	109	105	108
107	11	Rick Porcello	69	122	98	110	93	104	115
108	11	Chris Tillman	95	103	115	112	84	100	106
109	11	Kyle Gibson	76	110	100	101	108	118	104
110	11	Rubby de la Rosa	105	101	104	92	-	101	117
111	11	Josh Tomlin	90	102	108	128	-	98	105
112	11	Matt Shoemaker	97	113	113	122	-	99	114
113	11	Joe Kelly	79	123	110	125	113	-	-
114	12	Danny Duffy	111	105	114	117	107	103	113
115	12	Hector Santiago	120	112	119	123	82	106	110
116	12	Wily Peralta	121	106	123	116	-	121	118
117	12	Nicholas Tropeano	96	-	112	115	-	108	-
118	12	Jeremy Hellickson	100	121	-	124	-	-	112
119	12	Martin Perez	101	115	124	129	105	-	-
120	12	Jonathan Gray	104	109	122	105	85	-	-
121	12	Matt Boyd	107	-	-	121	-	-	-
122	12	CC Sabathia	112	-	116	126	-	-	119
123	13	Homer Bailey	116	117	125	-	81	-	-
124	13	Chase Anderson	118	108	-	127	-	114	-
125	13	Brett Oberholtzer	123	-	-	-	-	-	-
126	13	Adam Conley	-	-	107	113	-	84	-
127	13	Matt Moore	-	116	-	119	77	-	-
128	13	Matt Cain	-	113	-	120	-	-	-
129	13	Vincent Velasquez	-	124	121	100	-	81	-
130	13	John Lamb	-	121	120	114	104	97	-
131	13	Doug Fister	-	114	-	98	103	120	-
132	13	R.A. Dickey	-	107	-	-	-	119	111
133	13	Mike Foltynewicz	-	-	106	130	-	117	-
134	13	Trevor May	-	125	117	-	-	-	120
135	13	CJ Wilson	-	118	-	-	94	-	-
136	13	Matt Wisler	-	119	-	-	116	-	-
137	13	Jered Weaver	-	120	-	-	117	-	-
138	13	Jorge de la Rosa	-	-	-	-	111	-	-
139	13	Miguel Gonzalez	-	122	-	-	110	-	-
140	13	Chris Bassitt	-	-	-	-	-	113	-
141	13	Rich Hill	87	-	-	-	-	-	-

 

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