Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Picks to Target and Avoid In The First Five Rounds

March 23, 2026

Joey's 2026 fantasy baseball draft strategy - targets, avoids for the first five rounds. His must-have hitters, and players to avoid in the early rounds.

The first couple of rounds of fantasy baseball drafts are the most exciting. These are the players who are going to lead your team throughout the year. However, there are good picks and bad picks in every round.

In this article, we will dive into the best and worst picks in each of the first five rounds of fantasy drafts. We will analyze one good pick and one bad pick in these five rounds. Of course, players like Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto are elite picks in the first round, but we will base our selections on the best or worst value.

So, let's look at the best and worst picks in the early rounds of fantasy drafts and determine who managers should target or avoid. These selections are based on Yahoo's ADP.

Round 1 Fantasy Baseball Strategy

Best Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. 

The best value pick in the first round of fantasy drafts is Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. There is a real case to be made that Acuna should go as high as fifth overall in drafts, only behind Ohtani, Judge, Soto, and Bobby Witt Jr. Fantasy managers, though, can grab Acuna toward the backend of the first round at his 10.8 ADP in Yahoo! leagues.

With Acuna now almost two full years removed from his torn ACL, his stolen base numbers should only increase from a season ago. The potential for a 30-home run, 50-stolen base season is certainly there for the taking. The last time the Braves outfielder tore his ACL, it took him two years to get back to full strength.

That was the season when he hit 41 home runs and stole 73 bases en route to winning the National League MVP award in 2023.

RONALD ACUŃA JR LEADOFF HOME RUN FOR VENEZUELA!!! 🇻🇪 pic.twitter.com/wg0h6OIHdF

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 15, 2026

Although it's hard to imagine Acuna putting up those kinds of numbers again, both his power and speed make him an elite pick in the first round. The power was there for him last year, as he had a .535 expected slugging, a 15.7% barrel rate, a 52.5% hard-hit rate, and a 76.4 mph bat speed. Now, the stolen bases should massively tick up with his knee injury in the past.

Worst Pick: Kyle Tucker

There really isn't a "bad" pick in the first round of fantasy drafts. Every player selected in the first round is an elite option that has the tools to carry your team in several categories. However, if there were a worst pick in this round, it belongs to Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker with his 11.9 ADP in Yahoo! leagues.

The biggest knock on Tucker heading into the season is his struggles to stay healthy in recent seasons. He missed over 80 games due to a fractured right shin in 2024 and missed 25+ games last year while dealing with a hairline fracture in his right hand and a calf injury. Those injury concerns should definitely be noted.

While it's tough to predict injuries, Tucker has dealt with three separate injuries over the past two years. That should give fantasy managers some pause at the backend of the first round. If he manages to stay healthy throughout the season, though, he has the potential to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 stolen bases atop this Dodgers lineup.

Round 2 Fantasy Baseball Strategy

Best Pick: Gunnar Henderson

Last year was a weird season for Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson. He dealt with an undisclosed shoulder injury for most of the season, which is why his power numbers were down. Henderson only hit 17 home runs across 651 plate appearances. That could scare some fantasy managers away from drafting him in the second round of drafts.

Nevertheless, Henderson is the best pick in the second round of drafts. He has shown he can hit over 35 home runs in a season in the past, and the Orioles' shortstop is now fully recovered from that shoulder injury. Therefore, the lefty slugger could easily launch another 35+ home runs in 2026. Just look at what he did during the World Baseball Classic, launching two homers across 14 plate appearances.

GUNNAR HENDERSON TIES IT WITH A HOMER! #WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/aPcM4YiBVl

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 16, 2026

On top of those home run numbers, Henderson will maintain a high batting average while stealing close to 30 bases. Last year, the 24-year-old stole a career-high 30 bases with a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed. That means Henderson can put together a 30-home run, 30-stolen base campaign in 2026. So, make sure to target him at his 16.1 ADP in Yahoo! leagues

Worst Pick: Pete Alonso 

The only platform that has Baltimore Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso going in the second round is Yahoo! formats. For that reason, Alonso is the worst pick in this round. He currently has a 22.2 ADP, which is a bit too high for a hitter who doesn't supply anything in the stolen base category and leans on his power numbers.

Now, it is important to have a couple of pure power hitters in roto leagues. That's exactly where Alonso comes into play. He has hit over 35 home runs in three of the past four seasons and has a few 40-home run seasons on his resume. Last year, the Orioles slugger batted .272 with 38 home runs, 126 RBI, and one stolen base across 162 games with the New York Mets.

However, there are better all-around players at this point in drafts. He doesn't steal any bases, and there's a strong chance his .272 batting average drastically drops this season. Between 2023 and 2024, Alonso had a combined .229 batting average at the plate. That's enough reason to avoid the slugger in the second round of drafts.

Round 3 Fantasy Baseball Strategy

Best Pick: Francisco Lindor

The only reason that New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor is going this late in drafts is because of a hamate bone injury. Lindor underwent surgery on a fractured left hamate bone in early February. But the expectation is that the four-time All-Star will be ready to go around Opening Day. He appeared in his first spring training game on March 15, putting him on track for the start of the season.

Even though there are concerns about what Lindor's power could look like once returning from this hamate bone injury, he has been one of the most consistent fantasy players over the past few seasons. He hit 33 home runs and stole 31 stolen bases in 2023, totaled 33 home runs and 29 stolen bases in 2024, and hit another 31 home runs with 31 stolen bases in 2025.

If Lindor were healthy coming into the season, he would be a surefire top-15 pick in drafts. So, buy the discount on the Mets shortstop. He is the best pick in the third round with the potential to have another 30-home run, 30-stolen base campaign. Lindor will also be able to maintain a solid batting average throughout the year.

Worst Pick: Bryce Harper

Things appear to be trending down for Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper as he heads into the latter part of his career. For starters, his numbers across the board were down from the 2024 season. His batting average was 24 points lower (.261), his home run total dropped by three (27), his RBI total dropped by 12 (75), and he scored 13 fewer runs (72).

Additionally, Harper has dealt with some injuries in recent seasons. He has played more than 135 games just once since 2022 and has battled through numerous injuries over the past four years. In 2022, he broke his left thumb. In 2023, he started the season late after recovering from offseason elbow surgery. In 2024, he dealt with a hamstring strain, and dealt with a wrist injury in 2025.

Those injuries, mixed with his declining age, make him the worst pick in the third round. His squared-up rate (21.4%), chase rate (35.6%), and whiff rate (30.7%) all ranked extremely low, and the days of him hitting 30 home runs might be in the past. Therefore, Harper is not a great pick at his 32.9 ADP in Yahoo! leagues.

Round 4 Fantasy Baseball Strategy

Best Pick: Logan Gilbert

Seattle Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert has been one of the best fantasy pitchers since entering the league. From 2022 to 2024, Gilbert averaged a 3.38 ERA, a 1.041 WHIP, and 194.3 strikeouts per season. In each of these three years, the hard-throwing right-hander started at least 32 games and threw over 185 innings on the mound.

Although Gilbert missed some time due to an elbow injury last year, he was still one of the best fantasy pitchers when healthy. He had a 3.44 ERA, a 1.031 WHIP, and 173 strikeouts across 25 starts and ranked in the upper half of the league in whiff rate (32.9%), strikeout rate (32.3%), expected ERA (3.09), and expected batting average against (.206).

Logan Gilbert's Splitter...still Disgusting. 🤮

[The smile and nod from Gilbert after that pitch. ] pic.twitter.com/Bn7gepTDjv

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 23, 2026

As a result, Gilbert is the best pick in the fourth round of drafts. He has been one of the most durable pitchers in the league and will post elite numbers across the board. He will maintain a low ERA, have an extremely low WHIP, and will likely top 200 strikeouts if he stays healthy. He is a fantastic value pick at his 41.8 ADP in Yahoo! formats.

Worst Pick: Mookie Betts 

There is a chance that Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Mookie Betts bounces back from a disappointing 2025 season. Betts hit .258 with 20 home runs, 82 RBI, and eight stolen bases across 150 games last year. Those numbers aren't particularly great for a hitter that has a fourth-round ADP in drafts. He's currently going around players like Hunter Brown, Logan Webb, Gilbert, and James Wood.

With Betts coming off such a down year, it's hard to invest a high draft pick on him. His batting average dropped by 31 points from the 2024 season, and his power metrics aren't encouraging heading into 2026. The 33-year-old ranked 20th percentile in barrel rate (5.5%) and in the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate (35.8%). That 5.5% barrel rate was his lowest in a season since 2017.

There's just too much risk surrounding Betts right now to take him at his 38.7 ADP in Yahoo! leagues. His power numbers have been down in each of the past two seasons, and the veteran only stole eight bases in 2025. Those eight stolen bases were his fewest in a season since his rookie campaign in 2014.

Round 5 Fantasy Baseball Strategy

Best Pick: Jackson Merrill

Fantasy managers shouldn't read too much into San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill's 2025 season. It was an injury-riddled campaign in which the 22-year-old dealt with a concussion, a hamstring strain, and an ankle sprain later in the year. So, Merrill was never able to get into a groove at the plate.

But the potential is there for the Padres outfielder to return to his rookie year form. During the 2024 season, Merrill hit .292 with 24 home runs, 90 RBI, and 16 stolen bases across 156 games. If he can get back to that form, he becomes one of the best value picks in drafts. The young outfielder would be a discount version of some of the top players going in the first three rounds.

Merrill can hit around .280 while totaling over 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He had a 13% barrel rate, a .490 expected slugging, and a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed last season. That should give fantasy managers enough confidence to select him at his 55.8 ADP in Yahoo! leagues. A 20-home run, 20-stolen base season could be in store for him.

Worst Pick: William Contreras 

There isn't a lot of upside in selecting Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras at this point in drafts. He only hit .260 with 17 home runs, 76 RBI, and six stolen bases across 150 games. Those numbers were down from his 2025 season, where he hit .281 with 23 home runs, 92 RBI, and nine stolen bases across 155 games.

Although Contreras battled through a fractured finger for most of last year, most of the catchers going after Cal Raleigh are about the same. There really isn't a major difference between the Brewers catcher and Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith. Both will hit for a solid average, total around 20 home runs, and drive in close to 75 runs. Yet, Smith is going 50 picks later in Yahoo! drafts.

Contreras isn't that much of an advantage at the catcher position, which is why it's best to skip past him at his 59.8 ADP in Yahoo! leagues. Neither his expected batting average (.253) nor his barrel rate (6.4%) ranked particularly well last year, and the 28-year-old is only good for about five to 10 stolen bases in 2026. That makes him the worst pick in the fifth round of Yahoo! drafts.

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