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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 5 of the 2025-26 season on 9/20/2025. He picks out the best plays and looks at how to target the fixtures for fantasy purposes.
We head into Matchday 5, the first set of fixtures after the Champions League got underway in midweek. The additional set of games for many EPL teams adds another dimension to our picks and plays, with squad rotation being another wrinkle we need to consider in our analysis.
Here, we'll be looking at the best betting plays for Matchday 5 and where you can gain an edge in your fantasy lineups. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Also, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week on RotoBaller.com, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews articles. All of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@F1FantasyEuan, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @thefplbois, and yours truly, @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Betting Picks
West Ham United (+210) vs. Crystal Palace (+135) - 10:00 a.m. ET - Saturday, September 20
West Ham were brought back down to earth with a 3-0 defeat at home against Tottenham Hotspur last week. Palace maintained their unbeaten start to the season, but were held to a disappointing goalless draw by Sunderland. It was their second goalless draw of the season.
Despite failing to break down Sunderland's defense, Palace still looks a better outfit than West Ham in the early weeks of the season. Graham Potter's tenure with West Ham has been a big disappointment so far. Palace haven't lost in their last six trips to West Ham, and we'll take the visitors to win here.
"The results haven't been good enough"
What does the future hold for Graham Potter at West Ham? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/snXiS1lKnp
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) September 13, 2025
We'll also be playing for Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta to score. Five of his seven shots this season have been on target, and he scored a brace in this fixture last season. Mateta has scored four goals in five games against the Hammers, despite only starting three of them.
If Mateta doesn't start this game, the bet is voided.
Betting Pick: Crystal Palace to win (+135) - 0.8 units
Betting Pick: Jean-Philippe Mateta to score (+130) - 0.8 units
Manchester United (+180) vs. Chelsea (+138) - 12:30 p.m. ET - Saturday, September 20
Manchester United's 8.29 xG (expected goals) ranks second best in the league. However, they have only scored four goals, with two being own goals and one a penalty. Bryan Mbeumo is the only United player to score from open play so far. He leads the team in shots (12) and shots on target (five).
Cole Palmer returned from injury last weekend to help Chelsea earn a point at Brentford. Despite only playing a total of 125 minutes this season, Palmer's nine shots are the joint most at the club. We'll be taking both Palmer and Mbeumo to have two shots, with one being on target.
Cole Palmer is back amongst the goals after less than FIVE minutes on the pitch 🥶 pic.twitter.com/c2342dmVQ8
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) September 13, 2025
Betting Pick: Single game parlay - Bryan Mbeumo and Cole Palmer both to have 2+ total shots and 1+ shots on target (+163) - 0.7 units
Fulham (+104) vs. Brentford (+275) - 3:00 p.m. ET - Saturday, September 20
An injury-time winner against Leeds United last weekend secured Fulham's first win of the season. Fulham's only blemish was their controversial defeat against Chelsea. No opposing player has scored at Craven Cottage in Fulham's two home games so far.
Brentford also left it late last weekend, scoring an injury-time equalizer against Chelsea. The Bees have lost both of their away games, and it was a similar story last season. Then, Brentford picked up only two points in their first nine away games of the campaign.
Fulham appears to be the better team on paper and won both games against Brentford last season. They have a home advantage, and Brentford's early-season struggles on the road are set to continue. We'll be backing Fulham to make it consecutive league wins.
We'll also be playing for at least three total goals in the game. That happened in both fixtures last season and in five of the last six meetings between these two. There have been at least three total goals in three of Brentford's four games as they still look shaky defensively.
Betting Pick: Fulham to win (+104) - 1 unit
Betting Pick: Over 2.5 total goals (-114) - 1.5 units
Betting Pick: Single game parlay - Fulham to win and over 2.5 total goals (+180) - 0.5 units
Bournemouth (+150) vs. Newcastle United (+175) - 9:00 a.m. ET - Sunday, September 21
This is just a little play on a market that seems underpriced. Bournemouth and Newcastle have both taken 27 corners this season. Only Chelsea (28) has had more. Both sides have had at least five corners in all four of their games, so we'll be playing both sides to reach that mark in this game.
We'll be playing that along with both teams scoring. That has happened in nine of the last 10 league meetings between these two. Newcastle have addressed the loss of Alexander Isak by bringing in attacking reinforcements. Bournemouth have scored in all four of their EPL fixtures so far.
🇩🇪💥 6ft6' Nick Woltemade (23) scored on his Premier League debut for Newcastle. 🤩 pic.twitter.com/ezXa61OaoM
— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) September 13, 2025
Betting Pick: Both teams to have over 4.5 corners and both teams to score (+320) - 0.5 units
Sunderland (+260) vs. Aston Villa (+110) - 9:00 a.m. ET - Sunday, September 21
Aston Villa have blanked in all four league games. At the other end of the pitch, only Burnley has a higher xGA (expected goals against) total. Sunderland won their opening two home games and scored five goals in the process. The home team looks too well-priced to ignore.
🚨🔻 Aston Villa have NOT won a game so far this season…
⚖️ 0-0 draw vs Newcastle
❌ 1-0 loss vs Brentford
❌ 3-0 loss vs Crystal Palace
⚖️ 0-0 draw vs Everton
❌ 4-2 loss on penalties to BrentfordNext 3 matches: Sunderland (A), Bologna (H), Fulham (H). pic.twitter.com/Eymtk5umOw
— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) September 16, 2025
We'll play things a bit carefully and opt for Sunderland to win or draw, along with a total of four or more cards to be shown in the game. The referee for this fixture is Samuel Barrott, who has shown six yellow cards in each of the two games he's taken charge of this season.
Last season, Barrott averaged 4.61 yellow cards per game. Sunderland's only been shown five yellow cards this season. But three of them came in their last home game. Villa has received a total of eight yellow cards and one red. Three of the eight cautions were shown last weekend away at Everton.
Betting Pick: Sunderland to win or draw and over 3.5 total cards (+130) - 0.8 units
Parlay 1: Double chance - Crystal Palace, Fulham, and Sunderland to win or draw (+204) - 0.6 units
Parlay 2: Bournemouth vs. Newcastle United over 4.5 corners and Sunderland vs. Aston Villa over 3.5 total cards (+272) - 0.6 units
Parlay 3: All picks (+24582) - 0.2 units
Fantasy Premier League Game Previews
Every matchday, we will look at games to target and avoid in fantasy for attack and defense based on what the oddsmakers are pricing. We'll also be giving out some individual players worth consideration based on how games are expected to play out.
Attack
The Merseyside Derby gets this weekend's action underway. And with odds of -175 for over 2.5 goals to be scored, it's the shortest-priced game on the slate for goals. However, it feels like a trap. The last five times Everton have visited Anfield, there's been fewer than three total goals scored.
Everton's already kept two clean sheets this season, while Liverpool's last two games ended in 1-0 victories. Liverpool also played their opening Champions League game on Wednesday, less than 72 hours before this game kicks off. I'm not as confident as the oddsmakers that we see three goals in the game.
Leeds United's trip to Wolves has an implied probability of 61.09% that fewer than three goals are scored. Given Leeds have failed to score in their two away games so far, that seems a given.
Wolves have conceded seven goals in their two home games, so something has to give. Wolves don't seem to be too concerned with their start to the season, extending head coach Vitor Pereira's contract.
🚨EXCL: Vitor Pereira is set to sign a new contract with Wolves. Talks at an advanced stage over improved terms, as the club show faith in their head coach. #wwfc https://t.co/RMB95fDkWz
— Liam Keen (@LiamKeen_Star) September 17, 2025
While I wouldn't focus too much on this game, sprinkling in some Leeds attacking players into lineups wouldn't be the worst idea. But having failed to score a goal from open play so far, Leeds are far from a given to find the net here, making them a perfect variable to play.
One side that does have appeal is Arsenal. The Gunners have the same odds to score over or under 1.5 goals (-117). However, the over looks the most likely outcome. Arsenal has scored eight goals in their two home games, albeit this will be their toughest test at The Emirates so far.
City conceded two goals against Tottenham and Brighton. They also played their Champions League tie on Thursday, with Arsenal having played theirs on Tuesday. The extra rest could help Arsenal, and even with some key players out injured, they'll be buoyed by the memory of last season's 5-1 win against City.
Defense
Everton is the shortest-priced team to blank this week, with odds of +123 to score under 0.5 goals. That's an implied probability of 44.84%, which seems about right. The Toffees have failed to score in their last four trips to Anfield. This is a very different Everton side.
While over 2.5 total goals still doesn't appeal, there's certainly a decent chance that Everton scores. They've invested in their attack this offseason and it shouldn't come as a shock if they find the net against what could be a tired Liverpool side. I'm not banking on a Liverpool clean sheet this weekend.
There isn't a standout option to keep a clean sheet this week, but Sunderland has some appeal. They host an Aston Villa side yet to score a league goal this season. Villa did bring in some attacking recruits at the transfer deadline, but their 3.32 xG this season is the third lowest in the league.
Sunderland's kept two clean sheets in their four games, and their 4.54 xGA is sixth best in the EPL. It's just difficult to back a side not to score for a fifth consecutive game. Villa has to score at some point, right?
Aston Villa are still the ONLY team in England's top seven divisions not to score in 2025/26, following a 0-0 draw with Everton 😬❌ pic.twitter.com/99to4gsSXx
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) September 13, 2025
Players to Target
Jean-Philippe Mateta is someone we've already backed to score, so he is our top option for this weekend. The only concern is whether or not Mateta gets rested with Crystal Palace set to commence their Europa Conference League campaign next Thursday.
🚨 Glasner on Mateta:
🗣️ "I think JP honestly needs a break; you saw his chance was just fatigue from playing every game, every minute. In the second half, I considered who could play striker: Clyne, Cardines, or Rodney.
Clyne is £4.0m btw 😉 pic.twitter.com/PN5KTmwqzL
— Fantasy Football Scout (@FFScout) September 17, 2025
If we play Mateta, it makes sense to pair him with another Eagles attacking option. As a very low-rostered option, Daichi Kamada is someone I'd be targeting. Kamada missed the first two games of the season through injury, but returned to pick up an assist against Aston Villa.
He also led the team in shot-creating and goal-creating actions in that game. Kamada was responsible for two of Palace's six shots on target last week, and he looks like the Eagles' main creative option. I would also consider Yeremi Pino in this game.
West Ham has conceded a league-leading six goals from set pieces so far this season. Pino is Palace's primary corner taker, and it could lead to the young Spaniard recording his first assist for his new club.
We mentioned how Leeds could be a largely ignored option to score some goals at Wolves. Anton Stach is someone who appeals as an attacking option. The 6'4" midfielder has the joint second-most shot-creating actions (according to fbref.com) of all players this season.
The last two goals that Wolves have conceded were headers, and Stach's height is certainly an option Leeds will look to exploit against a suspect defense. Stach will fancy his chances of opening his account for Leeds this week.
Solid debut from Anton Stach. Strange no Prem team moved for him earlier
Physicality, duels, ball winner, carrier, covers a lot of ground, good ball striker, set-piece taker, aerially strong, 6’4”, close control, versatile, fairly progressive & secure. All-rounder at Prem level pic.twitter.com/KiQ10Vt6u9
— Ben Mattinson (@Ben_Mattinson_) August 19, 2025
Matchday 4 Review
Below is a quick recap of how our picks last matchday turned out. We'll be tracking all our picks throughout the season. Good luck with those FPL and DFS teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
What looked like a promising week turned into a disappointment. Bournemouth's encounter with Brighton did produce three goals as we predicted. But Brighton were on the end of a controversial penalty decision, denying them at least a point and helping us to a big profit to start the weekend.
That proved to be a sign of things to come. Tottenham beat West Ham, but the Hammers failed to score (not helped by Tomas Soucek's red card). Enzo Fernandez and Florian Wirtz both failed to provide any kind of attacking return. And Liverpool scraped a win against Burnley.
We did hit some nice plays in fantasy, though. Erling Haaland bagged a brace while Daniel Munoz and Kieran Trippier both kept clean sheets. In Trippier's case, he also picked up two bonus points in FPL.
Our games to target and avoid also worked out well. The Manchester Derby saw three goals. Wolves and Sunderland both blanked. Everton kept a clean sheet. Fulham and Leeds played out a low-scoring game. Only Liverpool let us down, scoring the only goal in their contest with Burnley.
Matchday 4: -2.08 units (8 units played)
Season: -4.14 units (28 units played)
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