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Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/4/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Alec Burleson, Brandon Lowe, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Maikel Garcia.
Before I get into any analysis, I have to give my colleague Frank Ammirante mad props for nailing three of his five HR calls on Wednesday, as this is no easy feat! Hitting on just one bet usually allows us to break even, but hitting three of five bets would have been a very profitable night! I'll do my best to live up to the high standards today and see if we can't keep the hot streak going!
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, July 4, 2025. We have a ton of great plays to look at on this Independence Day! Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/4/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, July 4:
- Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals
- Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
- Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals
Alec Burleson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+TBD DraftKings Sportsbook)
We are going to start this Fourth of July party with our old friend, Alec Burleson. He has been featured in this article at least once by me and has another solid matchup that we can hopefully take advantage of today.
Burleson has shown some power this season, as noted by his 10 home runs. Five of these home runs have come in the past three weeks while posting a .883 OPS. The power metrics have been pretty solid as well, with Burleson posting an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, which ranks him in the top 24% of the league. He has also posted a very respectable hard-hit rate of 38%, which ranks him in the top 17% of the league.
Burleson also loves to hit right-handed pitching, as noted by his OPS of .832 compared to .610 vs. left-handers this season. That is exactly who he will be facing in the Chicago Cubs' right-hander, Colin Rea.
Rea has had his fair share of struggles this season, especially against left-handed sticks. On the season, he has allowed a total of 14 home runs, nine of which have come against left-handed hitters. He has also allowed a BAA of .335 to lefties this season, which is remarkably bad. Rea has also struggled mightily at Wrigley Field, where he has allowed a 2.0 HR/9 mark compared to 1.1 on the road.
This is a great spot for Burleson to go yard today, so here's hoping he does.
Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+270 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brandon Lowe might be my favorite play within this article this morning. He has a lot going in his favor today, which makes him a solid candidate to hit a home run. Lowe has hit a total of 19 home runs this season, six of which have come in the past 21 days while posting an OPS north of 1.000.
He does a ton of his damage against right-handed pitching, as he has smacked 16 of the aforementioned 19 home runs off them while posting a .901 OPS. The power metrics once again back up the results, as Lowe has posted a 92.3 mph average exit velocity, which ranks him in the top 8% of the league. He has also posted a hard-hit rate of 41.2%, which ranks him in the top 6% of the league.
Lowe will be facing Minnesota Twins' right-hander Chris Paddack, who has had flashes of decency this season but has struggled quite a bit vs. left-handed hitters. He has allowed a total of 13 home runs, eight of which have come against left-handed hitters.
Paddack has also allowed a home run in five of his previous six starts and allowed two home runs in his most recent start. Overall, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.1 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 15% of the league. He has also allowed 25.2% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 28% of the league.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been absolutely on fire in recent weeks. Over the past 21 days, he has posted an OPS of .878 while swatting four home runs. On the season, Guerrero has hit a total of 12 home runs, nine of which have come against right-handed pitching.
Guerrero has also looked solid in the metrics department, which is not atypical of hitters in this weekly article. He has posted a hard-hit rate of 41.8%, which ranks him in the top 4% of the league. His average exit velocity is currently sitting at 92.9 mph, which ranks him in the top five percent of the league.
He also has splits that matchup well today. Against right-handed pitching, Vladdy has posted an OPS of .847 since 2023. He has also performed well at home, as noted by his OPS of .846 and eight home runs in 2025.
He will be up against Kyle Hendricks of the Los Angeles Angels as well as their abysmal bullpen once Hendricks is done. Overall, Hendricks has allowed a total of 15 home runs. 10 of these 15 home runs have come off right-handed sticks, as he is allowing a BAA north of .300 against them.
Hendricks is also giving up 1.6 HR/9 this season, which ranks him in the bottom 11% of the league. Once he is done, Guerrero will get to face off against an Angels' bullpen that has allowed a total of 49 home runs, which ranks dead last in baseball.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s swing is so smooth.
Want him to start the All-Star Game? ➡️ https://t.co/AOTyLAg5Kr pic.twitter.com/Ng1JSyXRXk
— MLB (@MLB) June 25, 2025
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Maikel Garcia OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+850 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Here is our longshot of the night with Maikel Garcia. He is currently listed at +850 on DraftKings Sportsbook, likely because he has only been able to muster eight home runs this season. That being said, I do like the matchup in a hitter-friendly ballpark out in the desert.
Garcia has only hit eight home runs this season, but he has posted an OPS of .930 with three home runs against left-handed pitchers. He also has surprisingly solid power metrics, as his average exit velocity of 91.2 mph ranks him in the top 19% of the league. He has also performed very well on the road, where he has posted an OPS north of .900 compared to just .765 at home.
He will be up against Arizona Diamondbacks left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who has allowed a total of nine home runs to right-handed hitters this season. Rodriguez has also allowed a 1.4 HR/9 while at home this season, which is nothing to write home about.
While Garcia is not a lock by any means to go deep tonight in Arizona, the matchup is pretty solid, and the odds sitting at +850 are worth taking a look at.
Maikel Garcia hits one off the foul pole to tie the game up! pic.twitter.com/UF8Ojev40z
— MLB (@MLB) March 29, 2025
Good luck if you are tailing these bets today, and remember to always bet responsibly! Thanks for reading and for making RotoBaller your one-stop shop for all things baseball!
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