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Lauren's starting pitcher (SP) fantasy baseball sleepers, cheap upside picks for 2025. Her favorite SP draft targets that could be in for a big fantasy season.
The 2025 Major League Baseball season is almost here. Regular-season games begin Tuesday, March 18, when the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers face off in Tokyo. The season will start for the remainder of the league on Thursday, March 27.
As it draws nearer, each team's rotation begins taking shape. At this point, everyone is familiar with the top pitchers in the league, such as Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Paul Skenes, etc., and they will likely go early in fantasy baseball drafts. Every fantasy manager knows the pitchers drafted in the middle and late rounds can make or break a season, though.
So let's take a look at some of my favorite draft value picks. Below are four starting pitching options with low ADPs who still boast respectable numbers and can support the back end of a rotation well.
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Max Meyer, SP, Miami Marlins
When Miami Marlins righty Max Meyer made his Grapefruit League debut, he touched 97.7 mph on his fastball, which he didn't do last season.
Injuries have significantly hindered the former third overall pick's last few seasons, hence his underwhelming 2024, where he had a 5.68 ERA in just 57 innings. Meyer, who turned 26 on March 12, is now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, so is a resurgent 2025 season in his sights?
Max Meyer is out here sitting 92 mph...with his slider pic.twitter.com/1lL9bKeQJk
— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) February 26, 2025
Let's be honest -- the Marlins have nothing to lose this year. Their lineup is just as weak as their rotation, except for Sandy Alcantara, so Meyer should be a regular in their starting staff. He's made just 13 career starts up until this point, and getting him reacclimated to the majors will be paramount. He's one of the few building blocks the uncompetitive franchise still has.
Nick Mariano's CUTTER projections have Meyer to go 7-10 with a 4.54 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts across 145 innings. It will be a rebuilding year for Meyer, so patience will be key, but once he finds his footing, the results could significantly pay off.
Regarding his inflated ERA and subpar win-loss record, it's important to remember that his offense likely won't do him any favors. Still, he has the stuff to be a successful fifth starter in the Fish's rotation, especially with an exceptional spring showing helping build momentum for him as the season kicks off.
Bowden Francis, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
One of the most unexpected breakouts of the second half of the 2024 season was that of Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Bowden Francis.
The right-hander pitched to a stunning 1.80 ERA with 58 strikeouts in 65 innings. One of his most notable starts came against the New York Mets on August 24, when he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning, eventually surrendering a home run to Francisco Lindor. He struck out 12 batters and threw 117 pitches during the impressive performance.
That outing and the rest of his remarkable end to the season established Francis as a real option for the Blue Jays rotation -- and for fantasy managers. His overall numbers in 2024 consisted of a 3.30 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts.
Proceed cautiously, as Francis' first half saw him pitch to a 5.82 ERA in just 38 2/3 innings, primarily as a reliever. His spring also hasn't been great, as he allowed five runs on seven hits and three walks in his first Grapefruit League start against the Phillies on March 9.
Bowden Francis is a pitcher that a lot of people are excited to watch in 2025
Posted a .140 BAA, 1.80 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, and had a 36.0% Hard-Hit% in the 2nd half
He limits walks, hard hits, and has above average extension!#TOTHECORE pic.twitter.com/muBWfMl6QJ
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) January 21, 2025
Despite those shortcomings, CUTTER still projects Francis to have a 3.75 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, 169 strikeouts in 180 innings, and 14 quality starts. Francis will turn 29 on April 22 and still has a ton of upside heading into his third full season in the majors. With an ADP of 211, he could be a potential steal for fantasy managers.
Grant Holmes, SP, Atlanta Braves
Grant Holmes, nearly 29, didn't make his MLB debut until 2024, but it was worth the wait, as he's quickly emerged as a force in the Atlanta Braves rotation. He saw time as a reliever and starter last season, tossing 68 1/3 frames to the tune of a 3.56 ERA in 26 games overall.
The Braves liked what they saw enough to consider him a candidate for the final spot on the 2025 starting staff, along with Ian Anderson and AJ Smith-Shawver. The rotation's landscape could change once Spencer Strider returns, but Holmes figures to be an essential piece to Atlanta's pitching staff either way. So far, in three spring appearances, Holmes has posted a 0.90 ERA with nine strikeouts in 10 innings.
Grant Holmes, 4th and 5th Ks. pic.twitter.com/nuFd289BN4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 11, 2025
As he enters the 2025 season, his workload could be a concern because, as RotoBaller's Jeremy Heist points out, the 109 combined innings he pitched last season between the majors and minors was the most he had thrown in a year since 2017.
He may move to the bullpen at some point, but until then, he's a reputable option with an ADP of 364. CUTTER projects the former first-round pick to throw 128 innings with a 3.77 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, adding 127 strikeouts, eight quality starts, and two holds.
Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Houston Astros
Houston Astros right-hander Spencer Arrighetti has impressed during spring training, pitching to a 1.50 ERA in three starts thus far. The 25-year-old debuted on April 10, 2024, and posted a 4.53 ERA across 145 innings pitched. He allowed a whopping 21 home runs and walked 65 batters. He also fanned 171 batters, equating to a 10.6 K/9. Not too shabby.
Spencer Arrighetti, Nasty 77mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/GbVck3dqIL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 1, 2025
The former sixth-round pick showed flashes during his rookie campaign, including a 7 2/3-inning start on August 28 against the Philadelphia Phillies, when he struck out 11 batters and flirted with a no-no until the eighth inning.
This was just one of multiple promising starts during his strong 2024 second half, where he had a 3.18 ERA in 65 innings, a stark contrast from his 5.63 ERA in the first half. But some jitters are expected during a rookie's first time in the bigs.
Arrighetti's solid conclusion to the 2024 campaign and spring training set him up for a positive start to his sophomore season. Our CUTTER projections have Arrighetti tossing 13 quality starts with a 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts over 167 innings. If he can improve his fastball command (batters batted .302 against it in 2024), Arrighetti may outperform his 206 ADP and occasionally be serviceable for a spot start.
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