RADIO
Welcome to Week 3 of my weekly article series for RotoBaller, The Fantasy Matchmaker. In this series, I will be looking at fantasy football matchups as each week of the 2023 NFL season approaches and giving you some players whose matchups I love, to the point it probably bumps them up higher for me than where that week’s positional ranking has them.
The common method for analyzing fantasy football matchups and the strength of opponents is by fantasy points allowed. How many fantasy points has that opponent been allowing to that position on average? This is something I track weekly but I take it a bit further as only looking at raw fantasy points allowed per game does not tell the whole story. Once a new season is a few weeks in, we can start using that season’s fantasy points-allowed data to predict future matchup strength. But in the first few weeks of the season, that data is not yet available in a large enough sample size. So I developed a preseason fantasy strength of schedule (SOS) scoring system based on the previous season’s data and multiple new-season projection inputs. My strength of schedule scoring entering Week 3 includes the preseason data and what each team has given up in Weeks 1 and 2 (including the average). This is also the point when I begin to incorporate “opponent-adjusted” data, looking at what teams are giving up compared to both the league average and what that opponent scores on average.
RotoBaller generates an overall Top 375 player rankings (all positions) for Points Per Reception (PPR), half PPR, and Standard (no PPR) each week. As I show matchups for each position, I will break that Top 375 list down further into rankings within each position (e.g., QB1, QB2, QB3, RB1, RB2, RB3, etc.). The idea is to show each relevant skill position player’s matchup and positional rank for that week. Each table will be filtered based on the positional rankings. I encourage you to check out the RotoBaller Week 3 ranks, available here. I will also include my “Postmortems,” looking back across each position at my Week 2 loves and “not great, Bobs” to see how I did. Now onto the Week 3 matchups I love.
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Fantasy Football Quarterback Matchups
The following shows the projected matchup strength for the QB position in Week 3. The table includes the QB, the QB Week 3 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), the opponent, and the opponent’s projected rank versus fantasy QBs according to my scoring system. The table is filtered in the same order as the RotoBaller positional rankings.
The additional data points I am including for QBs are the projected point totals in each game, the spread, and the implied total points for the QB’s team (all from FanDuel.com).
Week 3: QB Matchups We Love
Dak Prescott (QB13): This is borderline as most people are starting Prescott, but he is ranked just outside the Top 12 so I will say my piece. Prescott completed an impressive 81.6% of his 38 passes in Week 2 versus the Jets, including two TDs, versus who was my fourth-toughest QB matchup entering Week 2. But he still finished as the QB17 with those numbers. In Week 3, Prescott gets the easiest QB matchup at the Cardinals, and I think he, Tony Pollard, and CeeDee Lamb will have big days against the inferior opponent. My only pause with this call is the potential early positive game script the Cowboys could be in that could limit the passing upside for Dak. But as 12-point road favorites with the second-highest implied team total (34 points), I cannot pass up calling out Prescott as a QB1 in Week 3.
Desmond Ridder (QB25): This might warrant some chuckles and wonderment if I fell asleep at the keyboard. But I have a sneaky feeling Ridder will be useable in Week 3 and finish higher than the QB25 rank. And this is not completely out of left field as Ridder just finished as the QB10 in Week 2 as he brought the Falcons roaring back to steal a win from the Packers. Now, Ridder did not play that well, with a sub-60% completion rate and only 237 passing yards. But he rushed 10 times for 39 yards and a score and I think the game against the Lions will be a similar game script with the Falcons playing catchup. Maybe this is the week Kyle Pitts finally scores a TD?
Week 3: Not Great, Bob – QBs to Avoid
Justin Fields (QB10): Fields was atrocious against what was my 22nd-ranked QB matchup (Buccaneers) in Week 2. Tampa Bay is looking better on defense across the board than my preseason outlook, and they have moved up to 15 versus QBs for Week 3. Either way, Fields completed only 16 of 29 passes and had two interceptions. His air yards per pass attempt were below five and, most concerning, he only rushed four times for three yards (after nine rushes for 59 yards in Week 1). Containing running QBs may be a strong point for the Buccaneers (a matchup strength metric I am looking into this season), but I am avoiding starting Fields at my now sixth-toughest QB matchup in the Chiefs. Fields has already been sacked 10 times on this young season and I think the Chiefs defense will have a field day (pun intended).
Geno Smith (QB18): It has been a tale of two games for Smith and the Seahawks offense. Stymied and steam-rolled by the Rams in Week 1, the Seahawks went punch for punch with the Lions in Week 2, with Smith finishing as the QB8 on the week. A much tougher matchup with the Panthers is on tap for Week 3 (fifth-toughest QB matchup). I think RotoBaller has this ranking right and the tough matchup looks to be baked into the low-end QB2 spot. But recency bias is real (and not spectacular) and I think managers throwing Smith into their lineup based on the Week 2 results will be disappointed. The Panthers are a bottom-ten RB matchup, and that is where I think the Seahawks attack for much of the day.
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Matchups
The following WR table shows the Top 80 WRs for Week 3 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR, opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy WRs.
Week 3: WR Matchups We Love
Amari Cooper (WR19): I am going with a Browns WR again this week, but this time I’m going with their WR1. The Browns face the easiest WR matchup in the Titans in Week 3. That and the upheaval at their RB position following the season-ending injury to Nick Chubb combined with the Titans being a brutal RB matchup (third-toughest) tells me this will be a relatively pass-happy day for the Browns, and Cooper should be the biggest beneficiary.
Drake London (WR32): This call follows the logic discussed in my write-up about Desmond Ridder. It has also been a tale of two games for London, with a goose egg in Week 1 on one target, followed by 67 yards and a TD in Week 2 (24.1% target share). Now, we have to be careful when looking at Falcons’ pass catcher target shares, as a high percentage of a low passing volume is not good for fantasy football. But Ridder threw 32 passes in Week 2 in a negative game script, which is like a normal team throwing 60 passes. If the passing volume approaches or potentially exceeds that against the 25th-ranked WR matchup (Lions), London could feast in Week 3.
Week 3: Not Great, Bob – WRs to Avoid
DeAndre Hopkins (WR25): Hopkins was questionable last week with an ankle injury but was able to suit up, to the tune of only 40 yards on four catches. The injury likely limited Hopkins in Week 2 in a game where Ryan Tannehill only threw 25 passes. But he completed 20 of those passes for 246 yards against a beatable Chargers pass defense, so it was disappointing Hopkins was not more involved. In Week 3, Hopkins gets a road matchup against my fourth-toughest WR matchup (Browns). Even if Hopkins is 100% this is a brutal matchup, so I am sitting him where I can.
Marquise Brown (WR42): Brown and the Cardinals offense showed signs of life in Week 2 against the Giants. QB Joshua Dobbs had his best game as a professional and Brown caught six of ten targets for 54 yards and a TD. This was following a dismal day for Brown in Week 1. Brown finished as the WR26 on the week, and, similar to Geno Smith, that may lure managers into thinking Brown should start. It could be a long day for Brown and the Cardinals facing the toughest WR matchup (Cowboys), and this is another player I think RotoBaller has ranked correctly, with the terrible matchup baked into the rank. Only the Chiefs and Patriots have their highest-ranked WR lower than Brown for the Cardinals at WR42 (Skyy Moore at WR43 and Kendrick Bourne at WR58).
Fantasy Football Running Back Matchups
The following RB table shows the Top 60 RBs for Week 3 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy RBs.
Week 3: RB Matchups We Love
Isiah Pacheco (RB16): After a slow Week 1 for Pacheco (and the entire Chiefs offense), he looked more like 2022 Pacheco in Week 2 against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has been better against the run than I expected and is the current 15th-ranked RB matchup. Pacheco gained 70 yards on 12 attempts (5.8 yards per carry). Pacheco’s 85.7% RB rush share was one of the highest of Week 2, and he gets the 28th-ranked Bears in Week 3. The Chiefs should be in a positive game script early in this one, and this could be Pacheco’s highest rushing volume game on the season.
Joshua Kelley (RB20): Week 2 represented an interesting situation with Kelley taking over as the lead RB for the Chargers, after rushing 16 times for 91 yards and a TD in Week 1 (with Ekeler in the game). Ekeler missed Week 2 with an ankle injury, and the excitement for Kelley as the lead back was warranted, until you looked at the matchup. The Chargers faced the Top 5-ranked Titans (vs. fantasy RBs) and there were many in the fantasy football space trying to warn against starting him. I am surprised I did not have him in the “Not Great, Bob” section last week. But that all changes in Week 3. As of this writing, Ekeler is still questionable, but I don’t think he plays in Week 3. Ekeler’s own words have been fuzzy and vague about the timing of his return. This is the week to be excited for Kelley, as the likely lead back against the 30th-ranked RB matchup in the Vikings.
Week 3: Not Great Bob, RBs to Avoid
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB14): If you need to know any more about how 2023 is going for the RB position, Robinson Jr. finished as the overall RB1 in Week 2. With Antonio Gibson seemingly banished to Ron Rivera’s doghouse indefinitely after a Week 1 fumble, Robinson Jr. took full advantage in Week 2, scoring 26.9 fantasy points after seeing 90% of the team’s RB rush attempts. He also caught two passes for 42 yards. I had to double-take when I saw his RB14 rank for Week 3, although it’s not as crazy as it seems with so many top RBs out with injuries. With Robinson Jr.’s draft price, I am hoping you have better options in Week 3, as he faces one of the stingiest RB matchups in the Bills, my fourth-toughest RB opponent.
Jerome Ford (RB17): I went to bat for Ford on Twitter/X. I do not think the Kareem Hunt signing hurts Ford’s fantasy value as much as some seem to think. Hunt was not good last year.
His numbers were not good pic.twitter.com/p0GQsgCAIO
— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) September 20, 2023
Hunt will be involved, but Ford is still the RB I want from this backfield. Just not in Week 3. We already saw a similar situation play out in Week 2 as I discussed above with Joshua Kelley. The Browns’ starter is out (please get well soon Nick Chubb!), Ford looked good last week and now takes over as the lead back. But Ford, just like Kelley in Week 2, faces the Titans in Week 3, the third-toughest RB matchup. If I already had Ford (dynasty leagues) or was able to acquire him off of waivers (redraft leagues) I would be excited, but the Browns upcoming schedule (beginning with the Titans in Week 3) could crash the early Jerome Ford party, with the Ravens in Week 4 (fifth toughest RB matchup), a bye in Week 5, and the 49ers in Week 6 (sixth toughest RB matchup).
Fantasy Football Tight End Matchups
The following TE table shows the Top 40 TEs (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy TEs.
Week 3: TE Matchups We Love
Pat Freiermuth (TE10): Outside of a receiving TD in Week 1, it has been a horrendous start to the season for Freiermuth (and the entire Steelers offense, really). Freiermuth has only two catches on five targets on the season. The definition of “Not Great, Bob.” But he has also faced two of the Top 5 toughest TE matchups in the 49ers and the Browns. This week he gets the Raiders, the second-easiest TE matchup. While his yardage might not push him into TE1 territory this week, I do think he finds the end zone at least once.
Jake Ferguson (TE15): With five catches on 11 targets, only 22 yards, and one TD on the season, Ferguson has not yet lived up to the hype attached by some to the new TE1 in Dallas. A fourth-round pick in 2022, Ferguson is in that Day 2, early career limbo zone wherein TE fantasy success comes at a low probability. But Ferguson has averaged a 65% snap share and ran the most TE routes (20) for the Cowboys in Week 2, by far. Ferguson gets the 28th ranked TE matchup at the Cardinals this week and I think he rides the TD wave from last week and scores again in Week 3.
Week 3: Not Great Bob, TEs to Avoid
Zach Ertz (TE18): Staying in Arizona, I am avoiding Ertz in Week 3. And it’s not due to the results so far. Ertz is second in the NFL with 18 TE targets on the season and has the second-highest TE target share at 27.6%. That’s the type of TE opportunity you typically chase in fantasy football. The Cowboys are the eighth-toughest TE matchup and I don’t think Joshua Dobbs will be able to do enough against this defense to facilitate fantasy relevance for anyone. The only stat that gives me pause with this call is the Cowboys have allowed the eighth-highest target share to opposing TEs this season.
The season is young and we are still figuring out NFL defenses’ strengths and weaknesses. If the weak point of the Cowboys’ stifling defense turns out to be the TE position, this call could backfire.
Dalton Kincaid (TE13): If possible I am avoiding Kincaid in Week 3 against the Commanders. The Commanders allowed a 40% TE target share to the Cardinals in Week 1, although the Cardinals’ TEs only turned that into eight catches for 44 yards. Then in Week 2, the Commanders allowed zero catches to the Broncos’ TEs on only one target. Now, the current TE group in Denver doesn’t necessarily strike fear in the hearts of defenses, but a zero-catch day for a TE group is rare. I currently have the Commanders ranked as the 12th toughest TE matchup, but I think they might even be better than that.
Fantasy Football DST Matchups
The following DST table shows each DST and their opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy DSTs. I have included Week 4 with the DST data as the DST streaming game needs to look ahead.
Kansas City Chiefs: Forget streaming, the Chiefs are close to my top DST play on the week, with a home game against the struggling Bears. Justin Fields is known to take a sack and with the return of Chris Jones in Week 2, the Chiefs defense could rack up multiple sacks and turnovers against Chicago. The Chiefs are currently rostered in only 46.8% of ESPN leagues. I would be picking them up and playing them over every team except for the Cowboys versus the Cardinals. If that was not reason enough, the Chiefs then get the Zach Wilson-led Jets in Week 4, currently my fifth-best matchup for opposing DSTs.
Seattle Seahawks: I like the Seahawks DST this week versus the Panthers, who I have as the second-best matchup for opposing DSTs. This game will likely be low-scoring, and I think the Seahawks can force multiple turnovers from rookie Bryce Young. This play is not on the same level as the Chiefs, but at 7.1% rostership in ESPN leagues, the Seahawks are readily available. In Week 4 the Seahawks travel to the Giants who will be without Saquon Barkley. That matchup will hinge on which version of Daniel Jones shows up.
Last Week's Postmortems
I am fine with being wrong about things, especially when it comes to fantasy football, where most of us are wrong more often than we are right. So, each new week, I will include a post-mortem of the previous week’s likes and dislikes. I will subjectively judge myself based on the results of the previous week, with my take either being a “HIT” or a “MISS,” or in some cases a “PUSH.”
Last Week's QB Matchups I Loved
Mac Jones: Jones was ranked as the QB21 heading into Week 2. I loved his matchup with the Dolphins, my fifth-easiest QB matchup at that time, with Jones coming off a 54-pass-attempt game in a Week 1 loss to the Eagles. Week 2 looked like another potential negative game script for the Patriots, and with DeVante Parker back I loved Jones in a potential shoot-out. Jones did throw 42 passes, but finished with only 231 yards and one TD. His air yards per attempt decreased from 6.1 to 4.9 and he finished with 14.7 fantasy points and QB23 on the week. Verdict: MISS.
Brock Purdy (QB14): Purdy was ranked as the QB14 for Week 2. His matchup with the 15th-ranked Rams was decent, but I loved the implied team total of 30.5 points for the 49ers, which was the third-highest projection of the week. The 49ers scored 30 points (I’m telling you, the Vegas odds makers are good at this), but Purdy had much less to do with it than I predicted. Purdy finished with 206 yards on only 25 passes and zero TDs. The 49ers scored all three of their TDs on the ground (including one by Purdy, somewhat salvaging his fantasy day) in what was a mostly neutral game script. Purdy scored 14.7 fantasy points and was the QB23 on the week. Verdict: MISS.
Jared Goff: Goff was ranked as the QB12 heading into Week 2. I loved Goff’s matchup with the Seahawks who were torched by Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell in Week 1. The Lions were 5.5-point home favorites with a solid implied team total of 29 points. That and the recent history of college-style shootouts between these two teams had me excited for this matchup. Goff did not disappoint, completing 28 of 35 passes (80% completion rate) for 323 yards and three TDs. He scored 23.9 fantasy points, good for QB6 on the week. Verdict: HIT.
The Lions are cooking and Jared Goff is the most underrated QB in football
— Dylan Powell (@PowellAnalytics) September 17, 2023
Last Week's QB Matchups I Avoided
Russell Wilson: Wilson entered Week 2 ranked as the QB18, and I did not like his matchup with my fifth-toughest QB matchup in the Commanders, and an implied team total for the Broncos of only 22.8 points. Although completing only 56.3% of his passes, Wilson did throw for 308 yards and three TDs, including two long TDs to rookie Marvin Mims Jr. Wilson added 56 yards on the ground while increasing his air yards per pass attempt from 6.4 in Week 1 to 10.1 in Week 2. He finished with 26.9 fantasy points and was the QB3 on the week. Verdict: MISS
What we said about Marvin Mims last week. We were just a little early. 😉pic.twitter.com/h5zAeO1CsW
— Jorge Martin (@jorgemartin17) September 17, 2023
Matthew Stafford: Stafford was ranked as the QB24 as Week 2 commenced and faced the third-toughest QB matchup in the 49ers and one of the lowest implied team totals on the week (14.5). I did think the 49ers would win this game more handily, but Stafford still threw 55 passes for 307 yards. But, his air yards per pass attempt was a paltry 4.3, and he threw two interceptions to only one TD. Stafford finished with 16.0 fantasy points, good for QB22 on the week. Verdict: HIT (even though he barely exceeded his QB24 rank).
Kenny Pickett: Pickett was ranked as the QB27 and faced my toughest QB matchup at home versus the Browns. The Steelers somehow managed to win this game, but Pickett was not the reason. He scored 11.3 fantasy points and was the QB29 on the week. Verdict: HIT.
Week 2 QB Hit Rate: 50% (3-3).
Last Week's WR Matchups I Loved
Elijah Moore: Moore came into Week 2 ranked as the WR43 after showing some flashes in Week 1. The Browns faced my 25th-ranked QB matchup at the Steelers. When I made this call I did think Amari Cooper was not going to play, but I don’t think it would have mattered. Moore was targeted nine times and had a solid 22.5% target share, but he caught only three balls for 36 yards and finished as the WR67. Verdict: MISS.
Nico Collins: Collins was the WR41 according to RotoBaller Week 2 rankings and faced a matchup with my second-easiest WR matchup in the Colts. Collins caught seven of nine targets (20.9% target share) for 146 yards and a TD. He finished with 24.1 fantasy points and was the WR4 on the week. Verdict: HIT.
Nico Collins Weeks 1 and 2 #ReceptionPerception Charting Review is up on the site.
A few notes:
- True, true X-receiver
- Separating so cleanly on over the middle routes
- 76.7% success rate vs. man coverage
- Playing bully ball gaining extra YAC
- Just can't express how… pic.twitter.com/2zgqeccJ41— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 20, 2023
Last Week's WR Matchups I Avoided
Courtland Sutton: Sutton was ranked as the WR31 entering Week 2, with a matchup against the sixth-ranked Commanders. See above for my discussion about Russell Wilson, but the same logic applied to fading Sutton in Week 2. With Mims Jr. having all the fun, Sutton caught five of seven balls for 66 yards and no TDs. He finished as the WR47 on the week. Verdict: HIT.
George Pickens: Ranked as the WR30, Pickens faced who I had as the toughest WR matchup in the Browns. I faded Pickens even with Diontae Johnson out of the fold and it proved to be ill-fated. Pickens was targeted 10 times and had 127 yards and a TD, good for WR9 on the week. Verdict: MISS.
After 2 weeks of NFL football George Pickens leads the AFC North in receiving yards (163). He had 4 receptions for 127 yards, averaged 31.8 YPC, and had one 71 yard TD against the Browns on MNF. pic.twitter.com/1CXevOKesr
— Billy Hartford (@BudDupreeFan) September 20, 2023
Week 2 WR Hit Rate: 50% (2-2).
Last Week's RB Matchups I Loved
Dameon Pierce: Pierce’s Week 2 rank was RB23 and he faced my easiest RB matchup in the Colts. I did not expect the Texans to be in a negative game script that would have CJ Stroud throwing 47 times for 384 yards, and I expected Pierce to rush for more than 2.1 yards per carry (he did not). Pierce finished Week 2 as the RB45. Verdict: MISS.
Zack Moss: I liked Moss to garner the vast majority of the Colts’ RB touches after what we saw from Deon Jackson in Week 1. That and a soft matchup with the Texans' run defense is what I loved about Moss in Week 2. Moss ended up with a 100% RB opportunity share, rushing for 88 yards on 18 carries (4.9 yards per carry) with a rushing TD. Moss finished as the RB10 on the week. Verdict: HIT.
Rachaad White: White was ranked as the RB20 headed into Week 2 and I loved his matchup with the Bears, fresh off of their Week 1 matchup getting torched by Aaron Jones. White put up the game all of us White fans had been hoping for, with 22 touches, 103 scrimmage yards, and a TD, good for RB9 on the week. Verdict: HIT.
Last Week's RB Matchups I Avoided
Alexander Mattison: My fading of Mattison has been going since the offseason. His RB16 rank in a road matchup with the Eagles seemed way too high for me. Mattison ended up as the RB51 on the week and may be replaced by the recently acquired Cam Akers soon. Verdict: HIT.
Dalvin Cook: Cook ranked as the RB31 in a matchup against my toughest RB opponent (Cowboys). The loss of Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 had me fading all Jets skill position players, especially Cook who did not look good in Week 1. The Cowboys' defense was as good as advertised, holding Cook to five touches for only eight yards. Verdict: HIT.
Week 2 RB Hit Rate: 80% (4-1).
Last Week's TE Matchups I Loved
Luke Musgrave: I may have jumped the gun with this rookie TE. My mouth watered at his matchup with my easiest TE opponent (Falcons) and WR Christian Watson set to miss another game. Musgrave was only targeted three times and had two catches for 25 yards. Better days are ahead for Musgrave, but expecting a hit this early was a little too cute. Verdict: MISS.
Hunter Henry: I loved Henry’s matchup with the Dolphins and his involvement as Jones’ TE1 in Week 1. So far in 2023, the name of the TE game seems to be TD or bust, and Henry caught his second TD in Week 2, finishing as the TE2 on the week. Verdict: HIT.
Top 12 Reception Leaders at TE:
15 - TJ Hockenson
12 - Zach Ertz
11 - Hunter Henry/Evan Engram
10 - Sam LaPorta
9 - Darren Waller/Cole Kmet/Dalton Kincaid
8 - Hayden Hurst/Mike Gesicki/Cade Otton
7 - Kyler GransonJust like we drew it up.
— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) September 20, 2023
Last Week's TE Matchups I Avoided
Kyle Pitts: I am starting to think Pitts isn’t going to happen any time soon. The Falcons found themselves in a negative game script against the Packers, and Pitts was still out-targeted by TE Jonnu Smith in the game. Pitts finished with only 2.5 fantasy points and was the TE43 on the week. Verdict: HIT.
Hayden Hurst: Hurst was a solid streamer in Week 1 for the Panthers, a team that has not had a fantasy-relevant TE since Greg Olsen. Hurst caught a TD in Week 1, automatically taking him to Top 10 status in the 2023 TE wasteland. I was not so optimistic in Week 2 with a brutal TE matchup against the Saints. And it proved correct as Hurst caught only three balls for 20 yards and did not score. Verdict: HIT.
Week 2 TE Hit Rate: 75% (3-1).
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on Twitter (@MunderDifflinFF).
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