RADIO
Hi, golf fans! Welcome back to "Horse For The Course." Perhaps the most popular win of the season happened last week in Detroit, as Rickie Fowler emerged from a three-man playoff to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic. It was the fan favorite's first victory since 2019.
While the Rocket Mortgage had a rather weak overall field, seeing players like Fowler and Collin Morikawa duel down the stretch at least made it exciting. Unfortunately, there's no such star power in store this week at the John Deere Classic.
"Horse For The Course" is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week, check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our excellent PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2023 John Deere Classic
Let's cut right to the chase. This John Deere field is...not great. Despite being a fixture on the schedule for over 50 years, the field for this longstanding event is now routinely one of the weaker groups that we see every summer. What does that mean from a DFS perspective? We can expect inflated price tags on mediocre players and a slate that will be filled with volatility.
Ok, with that out of the way, let's focus on the task at hand. Just because the Deere is fairly devoid of superstars doesn't mean that it won't be fun. In fact, there are some intriguing storylines to play around with this week. A few of the most prominent? Will this year's rookie sensation Ludvig Aberg break through? Can last year's rookie sensation Cameron Young regain his form and assert some dominance over a weak field? Can Adam Hadwin make it through a tournament without being hurt on the final hole in some way?
J.T. Poston (remember him?) is your reigning John Deere Classic champion. He'll be tasked with defending his title against the aforementioned Aberg, Young, and Hadwin, as well as an eclectic group that includes Denny McCarthy, Russell Henley, and Taylor Moore.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC Deere Run
Par 71 - 7,268 Yards, Greens: Bent, Designed By: D.A. Weibring & Chris Gray
This D.A. Weibring design ain't exactly Bethpage Black. The extra-wide fairways are super easy to hit. The greens are super easy to hit. Paul Goydos shot a 59 here in 2010. You get the idea...there will be birdies. Lots and lots of birdies.
TPC Deere Run features some dramatic elevation changes throughout the layout with the course being designed to present players with risk/reward options that, more often than not, result in more reward than risk. Though birdies are plentiful, the bombers don't necessarily have a distinct advantage in this tournament, as guys like Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker are some of the biggest all-time money earners at the John Deere Classic.
As we're forced to do in these types of tournaments, I'll once again be looking for players that can go low by focusing on Birdie or Better Percentage and DK Points Scored. I'll also give weight to Strokes Gained: Approach & Tee to Green while giving a small bump to guys that have success putting on Bentgrass, as these types of events usually devolve into "putting contests".
Recent John Deere Winners & Scoring Info
- 2022: J.T. Poston (-21)
- 2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
- 2020: Canceled due to COVID
- 2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
- 2018 Michael Kim: (-27)
- Average Winning Score Last Five Years: -22
The Horse
Russell Henley
- Event Scoring Average: 67.42 (Three career starts)
- Notable Course History: T11 (2021), 2nd ('19), T27 ('14)
- DraftKings Price: $10,400 FanDuel Price: $11,800
Listen, I'm all for getting frisky and thinking outside the box. That said, there aren't really too many ways to get creative with this week's "Horse", as Russell Henley sticks out like a sore thumb on this slate due to his recent form and course history.
Henley has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour this season. After nabbing a win at Mayakoba to close out 2022, the UGA alum has carried the positive momentum into 2023, recording top-20 finishes in seven of his last eight starts while grading out second in this Deere field in SG: Total (L24).
He also boasts strong history at TPC Deere Run. His 67.42 career scoring average is the best in the field among those with two starts and in his last two Deere appearances he's recorded a T11 and a runner-up finish.
Russell Henley is coming to #JDC23 in 7 days!
Be there!#golf #music #pgatour #johndeere #tpcdeererun #magichappenshere #johndeereclassic pic.twitter.com/fhp6okumRo— John Deere Classic (@JDCLASSIC) June 28, 2023
The Ponies
Adam Schenk
- Event Scoring Average: 68.45 (Four career starts)
- Notable Course History: T4 ('21), T6 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $9,500 FanDuel Price: $10,600
Do I feel great about seeing Adam Schenk priced at $9,500 on DraftKings this week? Of course not. That said, PGA DFS pricing is all relative, and Schenk undoubtedly stands out as a strong option on this watered-down slate.
The Indiana native heads to this heartland setting where he's been eminently comfortable in previous John Deere appearances. Schenk has turned heads in prior years at TPC Deere Run, scoring a T4 in 2021 on the heels of a T6 in 2020.
In addition to the strong course history, the 31-year-old comes in with popping form. Schenk gained nearly eight strokes T2G in last week's Rocket Mortgage en route to a top-10 finish. That performance marked his third top-10 result since May, a stretch that included a runner-up finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Adam Schenk continues to knock on the door for his first PGA Tour victory. His seventh place finish today is his third top ten finish of the season. The former South Knox and Purdue star currently sits in 33rd place in the FedEx Cup Standings
Video Courtesy: CBS/PGA pic.twitter.com/8E14Sv1gYe— Marty Ledbetter (@MartySports10) July 2, 2023
Seamus Power
- Event Scoring Average: 68.13 (Four career starts)
- Notable Course History: T8 ('21), T16 ('18), T25 ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $9,100 FanDuel Price: $10,100
It will be fun to watch Seamus Power this week, as the Irishman presents us with an interesting case study in course history vs. recent form.
After a blistering 18-month stretch in which he won twice and posted four top-10s across 2021 and 2022, the 36-year-old golf lifer has come tumbling back down to earth a bit this summer. Power has now missed the cut in three of his last four starts, losing strokes on Approach in all those outings.
While the recent form looks quite bleak, there's optimism that Power can turn things around at TPC Deere Run, a layout where he's never missed a cut and has recorded top-25 results in three of his last four starts. He's not that far removed from playing good golf and the putter has been firing rather nicely, as he's gained a combined 7.3 strokes on the greens over his last three starts.
Champion with his trophy.
Seamus Power shoots 19-under to win the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship by one stroke over Thomas Detry. It marks his second win on TOUR. pic.twitter.com/f5yT8isjIG
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) October 30, 2022
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Alex Smalley
- Event Scoring Average: 68.50 (Two career starts)
- Notable Course History: T16 ('22) T47 ('21)
- DraftKings Price: $8,900 FanDuel Price: $10,200
The Duke product's John Deere Classic history isn't extensive, but it is enough to feel good about when coupled with his elite recent form.
Smalley has just two appearances at TPC Deere Run on his still-growing resume. After notching a T47 in his JDC debut in 2021, a T16 in last year's edition indicates that the young pro is a player we should keep our eye on when the Tour heads to the Quad Cities.
Even without his solid track record in this event, we'd probably still have Smalley squarely in DFS consideration on this slate thanks to his sterling statistical output of late. He heads in with white-hot irons that have quietly propelled him to top-25 finishes in four of his last seven starts. Smalley has now gained strokes on Approach in an eye-popping 11 consecutive starts. He leads this week's field in both Birdie Opportunities Gained and SG: Ball Striking (L24).
Lucas Glover
- Event Scoring Average: 68.90 (13 career starts)
- Notable Course History: Win ('21), T10 ('19), T25 ('17), T15 ('13)
- DraftKings Price: $7,200 FanDuel Price: $8,800
Not gonna lie...I did get a little queasy when I typed Lucas Glover's name in just now. Sheww.
Although "The Glove" and I don't have the best history together, the same can't be said of him and TPC Deere Run, as the former U.S. Open champion has been strong throughout his career in the JDC. Glover took this event down just two years ago and posted a T10 here in 2019.
This one isn't purely course history either, as the veteran logged some eye-opening stats last week in Detroit. With the help of a new long putter, the notoriously inept Glover actually rolled the ball really well last week, gaining 5.4 strokes on the greens en route to a season-best T4 finish. The ball-striking was also on point at the Rocket Mortgage, as he gained a blistering 6.1 strokes on Approach. He now brings the newfound confidence of his new putting style and trending irons to a golf course where he's historically found lots of success.
🧹 Sweeping his way up the leaderboard!
Lucas Glover rocking the long putter and seeing dividends in Detroit.
Gained over five strokes putting this week. pic.twitter.com/cfygvhh9iW
— Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood) July 3, 2023
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