RADIO
Welcome to the Divisional Round main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Divisional Round main slate and I hunt for value plays that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
We have a four-game divisional-round slate on tap this weekend, but despite the reduced player pool, we still have a strong array of value plays to choose from. That's largely thanks to some of the most explosive offenses in the league being in action, as well as several favorable positional matchups and multiple players that have the ability to overdeliver on their current salaries.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Trevor Lawrence, JAC at KC | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $29
Lawrence carries his usual questionable tag due to a toe injury into Saturday's game, but that is essentially a non-issue after he's played through the issue successfully for weeks. The breakout second-year star just authored a memorable comeback against the Chargers in the wild-card round, one that tested his mettle after a horrific, four-interception first half. Lawrence finished with 24.3 DK/FD and 20.3 Yahoo points with the help of four touchdown tosses, and he'll now get a crack at a Chiefs team he threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns against back in Week 10 in a performance that netted 21 fantasy points across the board.
Kansas City did have some solid metrics against the pass overall at home this season, but they still yielded plenty of fantasy-friendly production in the form of touchdowns. The Chiefs allowed an NFL-high 33 touchdown passes overall, including an NFL-high 27 in the red zone. In turn, the Jags frequently opted to go to the air inside the 20 -- Lawrence put up the eighth-most pass attempts in that part of the field (82), and he finished the regular season with a 19:3 TD:INT in the red zone before connecting for three of his aforementioned four scoring throws in the red zone against the Chargers in the wild-card win.
Brock Purdy, SF vs. DAL | DK: $5,400, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $27
Purdy continued to defy the odds as the first seventh-round rookie quarterback since 1950 to start a playoff game when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in the wild-card win over the Seahawks. The stellar effort netted 37.9 DK/34.9 FD/32.9 Yahoo points and served as Purdy's seventh multi-touchdown tally in as many games as a starter. Purdy unsurprisingly looks more comfortable the more he plays, and with a full array of healthy weapons around him now that Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell are back in the fold, it's also very possible head coach Kyle Shanahan continues to open up the playbook for him, even against a talented Cowboys defense.
Twenty of Purdy's 114 completions in the regular season went for 20+ yards, and he then accomplished the feat on six of his 18 during the wild-card win over the Seahawks, a team that had done an excellent job limiting big plays through the air in the latter portion of the season. Naturally, the yards-after-catch ability of Samuel and Christian McCaffrey certainly help Purdy's cause, and the Cowboys check in allowing 237.3 passing yards per contest in the last three games, along with 10.8 yards per completion in that span. Purdy has also thrown multiple touchdown passes in every single game since jumping into action for Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13 against the Dolphins.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Dak Prescott, DAL at SF | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $30
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Travis Etienne, JAC at KC | DK: $6,400, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $23
Etienne delivered nicely as a wild-card round value suggestion, posting 16.1 DK/12.6 FD/Yahoo points with a 109-yard performance versus the Chargers questionable run defense. The second-year back's matchup isn't quite as inviting in Saturday's divisional-round clash against the Chiefs, but Etienne actually accrued 73 total yards on 14 touches against Kansas City back in Week 10 despite being limited by game script. Etienne also has the speed to excel in any matchup -- as he demonstrated during the regular season with five 100-yard efforts despite not taking over lead-back duties until the second half of the campaign -- and Kansas City also proved to be a markedly more vulnerable defense against the run at home this season.
The Chiefs allowed 121 rushing yards per home game at 4.7 yards per carry, while Etienne averaged 5.1 yards per rush as a true lead back before his abbreviated Week 18 outing. The speedy back then put together the aforementioned ultra-efficient 20-carry, 109-yard effort against Los Angeles, and he certainly has the capability of exploiting the fact KC ranked 24th in second-level yards allowed to RBs this season. Etienne countered with an elite 21.8 percent broken-tackle rate in the regular season, certainly supporting the notion he could rip off more chunk gains on Saturday with enough touches.
Miles Sanders, PHI vs. NYG | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $24
Despite his talent, Sanders could be a bit of an under-the-radar play (by four-game slate standards) this weekend due to a relatively underwhelming body of work to close out the regular season and the fact the members of his team's air attack should be more popular. However, much like Etienne, Sanders' speed is a major X-factor that can help him pay off his reasonable salaries with a handful of chunk plays. Additionally, he checks in with a very favorable resume against these same Giants -- which struggled to prevent long runs all season -- having gashed them for a season-high 144 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries in Week 14.
New York allowed 139.6 rushing yards per road game on the season, along with 5.2 RB yards per carry. The G-Men also ranked No. 28 and No. 29 in second-level and open-field yards allowed, while Sanders generated a 16.2 percent broken-tackle rate during the regular season that makes him a great candidate to exploit that type of weakness. It's also worth noting Sanders tied for fourth-most red-zone rushing touchdowns this past season (10), while the Giants allowed an NFC-high 3.8 red-zone scoring attempts per road game.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Jerick McKinnon, KC vs. JAC | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $20 // Elijah Mitchell, SF vs. DAL | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $12
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Christian Kirk, JAC at KC | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $24
Kirk's salary is particularly appealing on DK, but it's certainly still reasonable enough on FD and Yahoo to make him worth your while in a game where the Jaguars will have to remain aggressive. The veteran wideout turned in an impressive performance against the Chargers in the wild-card win, generating 21.8 DK/17.8 FD/Yahoo points on the strength of an 8-78-1 line. That followed a 6-99-1 tally versus the Titans in the Week 18 postseason-clinching victory, and Kirk also lit up this same Chiefs squad for nine receptions, 105 yards and two touchdowns (34.5 DK/27 FD/27 Yahoo points) back in Week 10.
Kansas City was vulnerable to wide receivers all season, especially in the red zone, an area where the Jags pass heavily and in which Kirk is often a prime target. As mentioned in Lawrence's entry, KC finished the regular season having allowed an NFL-high 27 red-zone touchdown passes. In turn, Kirk logged 23 red-zone touches in 17 games, and he posted a 12-97-7 line in that part of the field overall before adding a nine-yard scoring grab in the win over the Chargers in the wild-card game. What's more, the Chiefs also surrendered the eighth-most receptions (223) and tied for second-most receiving touchdowns (20) given up to wideouts, furthering Kirk's case.
Deebo Samuel, SF vs. DAL | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $25
It's difficult to fathom Samuel's salaries remain as reasonable as they do this week following his 6-133-1 line against the Seahawks. That performance netted 31.5 DK/25.5 FD/25.5 Yahoo points, and Samuel naturally has the upside to do the same in virtually any matchup, especially now that he appears to be at full health. Samuel will also always get a handful of carries each game, which bodes particularly well against a Cowboys run defense that's been beatable, especially on the road. Samuel's short-area role combined with his explosiveness also makes him stand out with Purdy at the helm, considering he can operate as an excellent high-percentage target near the line of scrimmage that can turn upfield and still rack up plenty of yardage.
The Cowboys allowed an NFL-high 22 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, along with an elevated 13.1 yards per reception to the position. Dallas yielded 37.4 DK/30.3 FD points per game to wideouts as well, and Samuel could be set to claim a large stake in those numbers Sunday after earning a 19.0 percent share of the Niners' targets, drawing at target on just under 26 percent of his routes and averaging 1.72 yards per route run. Finally, consider Dallas surrendered 18 red-zone passing touchdowns during the regular season, while Samuel logged 21 red-zone touches in 13 games.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC vs. JAC | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $13
Valdes-Scantling didn't exactly endear himself to DFS players over the last few weeks of the season after producing just nine receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown on 23 targets in his last five games. However, we have to be willing to take chances on high-upside plays that are capable of blowing past their salaries, especially when those figures are particularly low due to recent struggles. The fact remains MVS has elite speed that has just missed a couple of would-be long connections with Patrick Mahomes in some late-season games, and he'll continue to operate against a very vulnerable Jaguars pass defense without fellow deep threat Mecole Hardman (pelvis), who'll remain out for Saturday's contest.
The Jaguars allowed 265 passing yards per road game and did so while giving up 11.4 yards per catch to wideouts. Jacksonville also surrendered a markedly higher completion rate on the road (65.1%) than at home (61.4%) as well, and Valdes-Scantling enjoyed some success against the Jags in Week 10 with a 3-60-1 line that netted 15 DK/13.5 FD/Yahoo points. MVS also enjoyed a stake in over 25% of the Chiefs' air yards and sported a particularly elevated 13.9-yard aDOT, giving him no shortage of upside at his miniscule salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER:
JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC vs. JAC | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $20 // Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. DAL | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $23
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. NYG | DK: $4,500, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $17
Goedert is another member of the Eagles that doesn't carry as much luster in DFS circles as the likes of his fellow Eagles pass catchers, but he could be a somewhat surprise contributor in what was a favorable matchup for tight ends all season. The talented fifth-year pro actually finished off the season in fine fashion against New York, posting a 6-46 line on seven targets after missing the initial Week 14 meeting between the teams with a shoulder injury. While more of a complementary target in the high-octane air attack helmed by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Goedert still found his way to six tallies of 64 receiving yards or greater across 12 games, including a trio of efforts above 80 yards.
The Giants allowed a robust 88-922-6 line to tight ends during the regular season, with the reception figure ranking as the seventh highest in the league. New York followed that up by yielding a 10-129 tally to the Vikings' T.J. Hockenson in the wild-card win, further corroborating their weakness defending the position. Goedert drew at least six targets in eight of his 12 games this season, and given Big Blue's vulnerability and the fact Brown could be shadowed frequently by Jackson, the veteran tight end could be in for plenty of volume again Saturday night.
Evan Engram, JAC at KC | DK: $4,300, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $20
Engram continued to be a critical target for Lawrence in Saturday night's wild wild-card comeback against the Chargers, finishing the game with a stellar 7-93-1 line on 11 targets, numbers that led to 22.3 DK/18.8 FD/Yahoo points. The veteran tight end's strong showing was reminiscent of a torrid Week 14-16 run where Engram offered a remainder of his upside by posting a combined 26-337-2 line on 33 targets.
The savvy route runner's salaries have actually remained very reasonable despite last week's numbers, and he now sees a Chiefs defense that yielded a robust nine touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season. Kansas City also gave up an elevated 11.0 yards per catch to the position, and the Chiefs' vulnerabilities to giving up red-zone passing scores already noted in Lawrence's entry could well pay off for Engram, who recorded seven of his nine RZ touches and scored all four of his touchdowns from Week 13 onward.
ALSO CONSIDER: Dalton Schultz, DAL at SF | DK: $4,200, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $21
DK/Yahoo Special: George Kittle, SF vs. DAL | DK: $5,700, Yahoo: $21
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