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Shortstop Trea Turner signed an 11-year deal with Philadelphia. Rephael takes a look at what this could mean for his fantasy baseball value in 2023.
There were four marquee shortstops listed on this year's free agency display. The Phillies, who needed a drastic change at shortstop, were the first bidders to commit to one of the shortstops. That would be Trea Turner. Philly locked Turner on an 11-year 300$ million contract, covering his 30s and early 40s. The 29-year-old is arguably the most well-rounded position player in the game, and the Phillies lineup has just gotten scarier.
Turner finally cashed in and will represent the Philly strips for quite some time. In a "Trea Turner" subpar year, the Florida native slashed .298/.343/.466 with a .809 OPS and 21 blasts.
From a batting average standpoint, Turner compromised his consecutive .300 streak and missed the threshold by just two points. Although a Trea Turner "down year" is every player's dream. Nonetheless, the blooming shortstop will employ the Phils' leadoff spot for over a decade which may even produce a ring or two for Philly fans.
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Consistency is Key
Just one shortstop remains on the free agent market in the form of Dansby Swanson. Out of the four, Turner earns the highest AAV (around $27 million), which would estimate to be the largest contract barring the Carlos Correa 13-year deal. Large sums of money are not granted to the average player. Turner's uniqueness and totality as a player are quite rare to encounter, and the Phillies were clearly all in.
One term which broadly defines Turner as a player is consistency. Alluding to his amateur career as a prospect, Turner was listed second on the Nationals Top 30 List, behind Lucas Giolito. The shortstop was lauded as a contact-over-power hitter with reserved power. The window of time between reaching the pros and time spent in the minors was relatively minimal. Turner is a contact machine that clearly manifested in the three years spent in the minor leagues.
The trajectory of Turner's minor league career certainly translated to his modernized game. Despite possessing unimaginable speed, his bat is revered as one of the most well-rounded models in the game. Of course, the reigning MVP-Aaron Judge is on an entirely different level, however, Turner represents something beyond human comprehension.
As presented in the chart, Turner is far superior to the average hitter. With a minimum of 500 plate appearances, his average has never regressed below the league average. The dimensions of the original chart include the league average (a drop below .250) which is cut off in the chart displayed above. The lowest average that could be associated with the league average was .259 on July 28m 2018.
By now the point has been made. Turner is non-human. Funny enough, there's more to it.
Power is Developed Gradually
Despite cranking just 19 home runs between three years in the minors, Turner's raw power has become a vital component of his game. Power typically manifests itself over time, but in Turner's game, his evolution as a hitter surpassed expectations by a mile. The Florida native has amassed 124 career home runs across eight MLB seasons. Additionally, he has produced consecutive 20-plus home runs seasons and could possibly break 30 in 2023.
His slugging percentage, as inferred from the graph, continues to climb when facing certain pitches. When facing offspeed pitches in 2022, Turner generated a .551 SLG%, which is 100 points higher than in 2021. His production against fastball regressed significantly over a one-year span but still shook out to a respected .519%. The outlier in the graph is clearly the breaking ball. Although, it seems to be unimportant considering that Turner surpassed his career-high in home runs this past season.
According to Steamer projections, Turner is expected to hit 19 HRs with a .446 SLG%. Although when including the aforementioned home run count over the past two seasons, it wouldn't be irrational to expect close to 30 HRs.
Conclusion
After agreeing to a $21 million contract through arbitration to play for the Dodgers in 2022, Turner did exactly what a player of his caliber would do. Sign a $300 million contract over an extended period of time. The 29-year-old will join a playoff-contending lineup that is now complete with the addition of Turner. For the next 11 seasons, the Phillies will have the privilege of hosting Trea Turner as their shortstop, as well as the presumed leadoff man.
According to NFC, for our fantasy fanatics, Turner ranks first with a 2.18 ADP. Good luck in the upcoming season!
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