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Home runs, we all love 'em. We've been told long ago that a certain sub-population fancies them even more than expected.
It's time to figure out which hitters have been outperforming their expected home run totals and who may be underachieving and potentially due for positive regression. This week, I'll look at the biggest differences between HR-xHR (expected home runs) and xHR-HR, Be sure to heck out all of our Statcast analysis for fantasy baseball at RotoBaller, including our weekly Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds each week.
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HR-xHR Underachievers
Data taken from BaseballSavant is current as of 7/4/2022
Notable Players
Trey Mancini was one of the main topics of discussion in last week's Statcast analysis on Sweet Spot% so I won't expound on his misfortune too much here. The new dimensions at Camden Yards have royally screwed him more than anyone. The reason for optimism here is the notion that he could be shipped off before the trade deadline to a far friendlier atmosphere such as Philadelphia.
Jesse Winker's bad luck started back in the first weeks of the season. He was hitting the ball hard but getting poor results with several fly balls caught at the warning track. Back then, I advised to buy low on Winker and take advantage of the perception that he might not hit in Seattle. It might be too late based on how he's hit lately. Between June 21-30, Winker hit .412 with two HR and eight RBI.
JESSE WINKER BREAKS THE SCORELESS TIE IN THE BOTTOM OF THE 8TH
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) June 29, 2022
Of course, just as he was heating up, he went hitless in a three-game tilt with Oakland of all teams. Winker remains a strong buy-low in my opinion, especially as the M's get back pieces like Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger for the second half of the season.
Alex Verdugo has a 411-foot avg HR distance, 37.5% Sweet Spot%, and an expected slugging in the 82nd percentile. He rarely strikes out (9.9% K%) and gets good wood on the ball regularly. Like Winker, Verdugo only has six home runs but Statcast thinks he should have 10. He also boasts a 50% No Doubt% so even though he doesn't barrel the ball at a high rate. When he gets all of a pitch, he gets ALL of it.
Verdugo has an all-fields hitting approach and focuses on quality contact rather than power. His launch angle and pull rate are unlikely to increase enough to make him a true asset in the power department. With so much thump in the Boston lineup already, his job is to get on base. If things broke right for him, we could see a 20-homer season at some point. It isn't looking promising for 2022 even if his luck turns around.
Ramon Laureano is an interesting name for this list because he's not truly a power hitter but he does have enough thump to help in that category. We've seen it before when he went deep 24 times in 2019 and then again with 14 HR in essentially half a season in 2021. He can elevate the ball and can be aggressive when he sees a fastball, mainly because he can't hit anything else.
His 381 avg HR distance is near the very bottom of the leaderboard. Combined with the fact he plays half his games in Oakland, it's not shocking that his results haven't been better. He's a major candidate to be traded midseason which would boost his value tremendously. Keep an eye on Laureano because he has that coveted power/speed blend all fantasy managers need.
HR-xHR Overachievers
Data taken from BaseballSavant is current as of 7/4/2022
Notable Players
Bryan Reynolds is the biggest overachiever here which means he could be due for negative regression. His 37% Barrel% and 54% Hard-Hit% speak to that. He had a three-homer game about a week ago in Washington facing soft-tossing Paolo Espino. The Bucs will continue to benefit from intra-division matchups where the Reds and Cubs reside. Reynolds is doing most of his damage on the road and that should continue as well. I don't expect a huge drop in the second half, especially if Pittsburgh's young players such as Oneil Cruz can provide decent lineup protection.
Brendan Rodgers doesn't have a single no-doubter to his name. His 45.2% Hard Hit rate is pretty respectable and he's gradually raised his flyball rate over the last couple of years, giving him a modicum of HR power. The problem is Coors Field. By problem, I mean that Statcast always vastly overestimates its impact on expected stats for both hitters and pitchers. Rodgers actually has the 12th-highest average HR distance among qualified batters at 417 feet. Sure, he benefits from Coors Field but it's not like that's going to change. He's not likely to ever be more than a 20-HR guy at best; it's doubtful he even gets to that mark this season. He still has enough pop to be a serviceable utility guy or MI in 12+ team leagues.
Anthony Rizzo has been one of the more pleasant surprises in fantasy baseball this season. If not for Aaron Judge stealing all the thunder in the Bronx, Rizzo's resurgence would be a bigger story. His 22 HR are tied with Pete Alonso for fifth in the bigs.
If we're going to get nitpicky, however, we see that several of his big flies have barely cleared the fence. He has a difference of 3.4 HR-xHR and eight "doubters" which might have been held by a different ballpark.
Below is a spray chart showing where each of his homers landed with an overlay of Yankee Stadium.
All but one were unsurprisingly pulled to right field. His average HR distance is way down at 389 ft, ranking 189th. Ultimately, if it clears the fence that's all that matters. It should be pointed out that things could easily swing the other way and it would be unwise to expect similar results all season long. If anything, Rizzo remains a sell-high candidate.
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