Second Half Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates - Underperformers To Buy Low

July 17, 2025

Joey analyzes fantasy baseball breakout pitchers, sleepers for the 2nd half of 2025. These underperforming pitchers are buy-low fantasy baseball trade targets.

With the first half of the season in the books, now is the perfect time to look at which players are set to bounce back in the second half. These players didn't have the best first half, but all five of the pitchers featured below are worth trading for in most fantasy leagues during the All-Star break.

These five pitchers will be much better fantasy options in the second half after an up-and-down first half. Given that most of these starters were inconsistent in the first half, it could be pretty easy to trade for most of these right-handers.

So, which pitchers should fantasy managers buy low heading into the second half of the season? Let's dive in and find out.

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Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

It has no doubt been an up-and-down first half for Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Taj Bradley. He has a rough 4.60 ERA across 19 starts and has allowed at least four earned runs in six different outings this season. However, Bradley has showcased his potential throughout the year, as evidenced by his seven dominant innings with 10 strikeouts against the Houston Astros on June 1.

Even though Bradley ranks 54th among all qualified starters in ERA this season, things should improve for him in the second half. He is coming off a strong start against the Boston Red Sox his last time out (six innings pitched, one earned run, five strikeouts), and his off-speed pitches have been a major weapon for him on the mound.

He has allowed just seven combined extra-base hits on his split-finger and curveball this season. That has helped Bradley rank in the upper half of the league in average exit velocity (89 mph), barrel rate (5.9%), and hard-hit rate (39%). Given that his expected ERA (3.60) is also 100 points lower than his actual ERA (4.60), he is a prime buy-low candidate entering the second half of the fantasy season. 

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

After missing the first few months due to an elbow injury, San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish finally made his season debut on July 7. He allowed two runs with five strikeouts across 3 2/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his first start and then gave up four runs with two strikeouts across 4 2/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 12.

He’s back 👀

Yu Darvish makes his season debut for the @Padres tonight! pic.twitter.com/VFjWO8dRZH

— MLB (@MLB) July 7, 2025

While Darvish has shown some rust in each of his first two outings, this is the best time to buy low on a pitcher who will put up consistent numbers yet again on the mound. The veteran had a 3.31 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP across 16 starts last year, and there are some positives to take away from his two starts this year.

Opposing hitters have a .188 expected batting average against Darvish, and the right-hander didn't allow much hard contact in those two outings. As the right-hander continues to get back to full strength on the mound, his overall numbers should improve. So, make the move now to acquire the 38-year-old. It likely won't cost you much to get a pitcher who has spent more than half of the season on the injured list.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

When Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman is at his best, he is one of the best starters in the game. We have surely seen that throughout the 2025 season. Gausman threw seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Padres on May 21 and eight scoreless innings with six strikeouts against the Guardians on June 26.

33+ strikeouts
no more than 1 walk
no hit batters or wild pitches
one calendar month

Ray Sadecki (July 1971)
Bret Saberhagen (June 1993)
David Price (July 2013)
Hisashi Iwakuma (July 2014)
Freddy Peralta (Sept 2023)
Kevin Gausman (May 2025) 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/VnxpBmFZGZ

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 3, 2025

Nonetheless, the right-hander has been a very inconsistent fantasy option for most of the season. Although he has had some strong starts this year, Gausman has struggled on the mound in recent weeks. Since delivering that eight-inning performance against the Guardians a few weeks back, the 34-year-old has a 4.95 ERA and 43 strikeouts over his last eight starts.

It was not a great end to the first half for Gausman, who carries a 4.19 ERA into the All-Star break. This marks the second straight year that the two-time All-Star has finished the first half with an ERA above 4.10. Like last season, though, we should expect the 34-year-old to be a much better fantasy pitcher in the second half.

Gausman had a 2.92 ERA across his final 12 starts in 2024, and his 2025 metrics should help him post solid all-around numbers in the final two-plus months. His expected ERA (3.91), chase rate (30.7%), walk rate (7.5%), hard-hit rate (39.3%), and whiff rate (26.2%) all rank around league average at this point in the season. Therefore, he is a perfect buy-low pitcher in fantasy right now.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

It has certainly been frustrating to roster Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene this season. Despite having a 2.72 ERA and 73 strikeouts across 59 2/3 innings pitched, injuries continue to hold the right-hander back from reaching his full fantasy potential. Greene has been on the 15-day IL since June 4 due to an ongoing right groin strain.

However, this is not Greene's first stint on the IL this season. He also missed two weeks in the middle of May due to a groin strain before re-aggravating that same groin injury in a start on June 3. That means the 2024 All-Star has only made three starts since May 8. Even though he is still recovering from that groin strain, see what it would take to acquire the flame-thrower.

Greene will pitch again this season and will be a dominant fantasy option upon his return. His expected batting average against (.208), expected ERA (2.94), chase rate (32.8%), strikeout rate (30.8%), and average fastball velocity (99.3 mph) all rank in the 85th percentile or better through the first half of the season.

So, if you can somehow acquire him while his value is a bit low, that would be a major win for your fantasy team. With Greene continuing to rehab his groin strain in Arizona, we could see the Reds pitcher back in the majors sometime in the next few weeks.

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease was a popular early-round pick in fantasy baseball drafts. It made sense why Cease was going so early, considering he finished with a 3.47 ERA and 224 strikeouts in 2024. However, the right-hander has been a completely different pitcher on the mound this year.

He currently owns a 4.88 ERA and 129 strikeouts across his first 19 starts in 2025. Those numbers made Cease one of the biggest fantasy busts in the first half. The 29-year-old has allowed at least three earned runs in 10 of his 19 outings and just gave up six earned runs across six innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last start before the break. 

If the Padres were to trade Dylan Cease….

Where would the best spot for him be? pic.twitter.com/devYoODXuA

— SleeperMLB (@SleeperMLB) July 7, 2025

Although Cease has pitched poorly through the first half, he is a perfect buy-low candidate right now. His numbers should be better in the second half, led by his impressive strikeout numbers. Cease ranks in the top 13% among all pitchers in chase rate (32.5%), whiff rate (33.6%), and strikeout rate (29%).

Given that his swing-and-miss stuff is still on display at a high level, we should expect the Padres pitcher to be a better fantasy option in the second half. His expected ERA (3.65) is also 123 points lower than his actual ERA (4.88), meaning Cease got a bit unlucky on the mound in the first half. Things should definitely even out for him moving forward.

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