RADIO
Jon Rahm is on a tear right now, winning four of his last six starts. He goes to a venue that is essentially built for his booming drives and accurate long irons. He is going to make betting and playing DFS this week very challenging. Hopefully, the books hang some juicy numbers out there on everybody but Rahm, and hopefully, he doesn't continue to win golf tournaments at this ridiculous rate. A lot of hope, but here we go.
We are going to ask a few questions that will guide us through a multitude of areas that impact how we go about handicapping an event. We look at historical odds of winners, traditional weather, skills that matter, and a few more interesting things. The goal of this article is to provide you with a high-level understanding of the nuances associated with this week's course and players.
I am a proud member of the RotoBaller team and put out a bunch of articles and podcasts each week that includes a more detailed research article, as well as DFS and betting articles that are intended to make your weekly golf experience that much more enjoyable. They are a combination of free and premium articles, with our premium package providing all the tools, articles, and discords you could wish for (code: "maniac" for 10% off). You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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#1. Dogs or Dimes?
Were the odds of the last few winners closer to a dime or were the underdogs sniffing around the top of the leaderboard?
The odds of the last three winners were a mix of long shots and a semi-favorite at 60, 25, and 70-1.
Favorites have sniffed around the top of the board over the last three years.
Finishing positions of the golfers with the shortest odds to win:
#2. History or Mystery?
Is course history a strong predictor of success or is this week going to be a mystery?
Course history is one of the strongest on tour.
These are the golfers with the best average strokes gained (min six rounds):
These are the golfers with the worst average strokes gained (min six rounds):
#3. Birdies or Bogeys?
What kind of scoring conditions can we expect this week?
The last five winners of this event shot -15, -14, -15, -21, and -10.
The best strokes gained average on easy courses:
The worst strokes gained average on easy courses:
#4. Weak or Peak?
Is the strength of the field at its peak or is it weak?
The total Official World Golf Ranking points total for this week's field is 150.88 (before updating for any points from AMEX). Last week's total OWGR in a 156-man field was 171.93.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units
Total Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
#5. AM or PM?
What is the weather usually like at this event?
Historically, the weather in San Diego, California does not get much warmer than 75 degrees and wind can get into the mid-teens. Keep an eye on the weather for the week as we have seen weather cause delays here in the past.
#6. Distance or Direction?
Is distance or direction the most important stat off the tee?
The Farmers Insurance Open is statistically more favorable to those who are accurate off the tee, but we have seen bombers take adavantage of this venue.
The best Strokes Gained off the tee in the field:
The golfers with the most accuracy off the tee:
The golfers with the most distance off the tee:
#7. Wedges or Woods?
Which proximity buckets are going to see the most divots this week?
Just shy of 60% of approach shots come from 125-200 yards.
These are the golfers that rate out the best when taking the above proximity buckets and prorating them:
#8. Sand or Grandstand?
Are errant approach shots going to land up in the sand or grandstands?
This course has a lot of thick rough surrounding greens. As it is still early in the season, and with around the green proximity numbers being VERY statistically noisy, don't take these numbers for the gospel. We are assessing these metrics to get a big-picture feel for who excels out of the rough. These are the best golfers around the green:
These are the golfers who excel out the rough:
These are the golfers who struggle out the rough:
#9. Bermuda or Bent?
Are we putting on Bermuda or Bentgrass?
Neither. We are putting on Poa and these are the best putters on Poa over the last 50 rounds:
The worst putters on Bermuda over the last 50:
#10. Model or Maniac
Are there golfers who the model is not liking as much as the Maniac?
Below are the top 10 golfers in my model:
These are a few golfers who the Maniac likes, who the model overlooked a little:
Hopefully, this helped you prepare for the odds dropping tomorrow morning! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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