July 29, 2016

Edward Sutelan analyzes the performance of recently promoted MLB prospects and how they factor into the 2016 fantasy baseball picture.

What an unbelievable week for prospect promotions. Alex Bregman, Lucas Giolito, Joey Gallo, David Dahl, Tyler Glasnow! The real question is really, who wasn’t promoted this week? And the crazy thing is that next week could have even more top prospects reach the majors, as big league rosters continue to be shaken up as a result of the upcoming trade deadline.

Let's take a look at the recent rookie call-ups, and their outlooks moving forward.

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Hitters

Alex Bregman (SS, HOU) - 16% owned

In a move that took almost no one by surprise, the Astros promoted top prospect Alex Bregman. The only thing really surprising about it was that the promotion did not happen sooner. First he crushed Double-A, slashing .297/.415/.559 with 16 home runs and more walks than strikeouts. Then he took his talents to Triple-A and slashed .333/.373/.641 with six home runs. Now he has reached the big leagues and though he has struggled to hit, Bregman should still be counted on to be one of the most explosive prospects promoted all season.

Bregman went from the second overall pick in 2015 to the top overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline. Scouts absolutely love his bat. Though he is not very big, standing at only 6’0" and 180 pounds, he draws a lot of power from a lightning fast bat leading many to believe he could be a 25-35 home run threat in the big leagues. He also looks like a very solid bet to bat .290 or over thanks in large part to that bat speed and to his well above-average plate discipline. He is not super fast and really is not much of a stolen base threat, but every now and again he will swipe a bag for fantasy owners.

Bregman figures to slide right into the meat of what will be a very formidable lineup in Houston. Batting behind guys like Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa and eventually Yulieski Gourriel, the 22-year-old third baseman figures to receive plenty of RBI opportunities. That 16% ownership ranking is surprisingly low and should certainly increase as he starts to perform better in the big leagues.

Raul Mondesi (SS, KC) - 3% owned

The son of former outfielder Raul Mondesi, Raul Mondesi Jr. was recently promoted to the big leagues to have his second stint of Major League action. Previously, the only experience he had in the majors was in the postseason when he debuted in the 2015 World Series for Kansas City so technically he made his MLB debut this season. Mondesi had not really been tearing apart the minors as he struck out 31.1% of the time, though he did slash .304/.328/.536 with a home run and five stolen bases at Triple-A. His numbers at Double-A showed a lower strikeout rate (22.9%) and a higher walk rate (9.9%) and his average was down to .259.

Though Mondesi is considered to be a top prospect, his upside is limited this season for fantasy owners. He will have a hard time finding starting action. And though he can contribute with stolen bases, he will likely struggle to hit for a high enough average to put his speed to use. He could still have a bright future and very well might as he grows accustomed to big league pitching and begins to see more consistent starting time, but it is unlikely he will make a major difference in 2016 to owners.

Joey Gallo (3B/OF, TEX) - 6% owned

When Prince Fielder went down with season-ending neck surgery, many assumed that Joey Gallo would be the guy promoted to help play some time at first base and at DH. At first, that did not happen with the Rangers insisting on staying with Jurickson Profar and Mitch Moreland at first and DH respectively. But after a few days, the Rangers decided to promote their top prospect to the majors. At Triple-A, he had been in the midst of his most promising season to date with a .246/.381/.557 slash line with 19 home runs, a 17.7% walk rate (highest in any level above A+) and a 30.4% strikeout rate (his lowest at any level above High-A).

This would normally be the part where I give a quick scouting report on what Gallo brings to the table, but there really is only one thing he will provide. Home runs. He has one of the fastest bats in the minors and screams 40 home run potential. But, he won’t hit for a high average as strikeouts could keep him batting below .250 this season. Owners probably have to hope that he is traded this deadline season, otherwise he could have a very tough time finding consistent playing time with Profar stealing the show at first and Moreland putting together an adequate season at DH. His explosive power makes him worth owning even if he has a limited role with the club, but he still is probably only worth owning in 12+ team leagues as long as he is lacking in an everyday role.

David Dahl (OF, COL) - 6% owned

Now we get to the most exciting prospect on this list, outfielder David Dahl. Most exciting?! No! Bregman is the top prospect in baseball! How could anyone top that?! Well Dahl provides a little bit of everything to fantasy owners and plays in the most hitter friendly ballpark in baseball. At Double-A this season, Dahl hit 13 home runs and stole 16 bases while also displaying a solid .278 average. When he reached Triple-A, he absolutely exploded, slashing .484/.529/.887 with five home runs in 68 plate appearances (16 games).

When Coors Field is factored into the equation, few prospects in baseball can come close to matching Dahl’s power/speed potential. Most scouts believe he has the ability to hit 15 home runs without Coors, but factor his home ballpark into the equation and the Rockies’ outfielder could be a 20-25 home run hitter. As he continues to develop, some believe he will have more dinger power which could give him the ability to hit near 30 as long as he stays in Colorado. And with his speed already capable of swiping 20-25 bags, he could eventually be a 30/30 guy down the line. How far he goes will depend entirely on his ability to limit the strikeouts which most scouts believe he will do as he continues to mature.

With the names of both Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez swirling in the middle of trade rumors, Dahl could be close to seeing a major uptick in playing time. As is, he should see plenty of starting time in left field as the spot is currently only manned by Ryan Raburn. At this point, Dahl warrants owning in all leagues as there are few prospects with his upside.

Luke Maile (C, TB) - 0% owned

The fifth and final batter on this list is easily the least exciting of the group. Unranked in the Rays’ top-30 by MLB Pipeline and 27th by Baseball America, Maile is a backup catcher who profiles exactly the same way. He has never hit for a high average in the minors and never hit for much power. Now the Rays don’t have any good options at catcher right now, but that does not necessarily mean that Maile is going to be their solution at the position. Given his current role and lack of excitement, he is not worth owning in any leagues.

Pitchers

Tyler Glasnow (SP, PIT) - 11% owned

Glasnow was promoted, lasted only a couple of innings, left with a shoulder injury and now finds himself on the 15-day DL. But that should not dissuade owners too much as it appears to be only a minor bump in the road and he figures to rejoin the rotation as soon as he returns from the DL. Prior to his big league promotion, Glasnow had accumulated 102.0 innings with a 1.94 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 10.76 K/9, 4.85 BB/9 and 0.35 HR/9 at Triple-A.

I have written about Glasnow before since this is not the first time this season he has been promoted, but I will give a quick recap. Strikeouts, walks, limited hits and occasional rough outings. His command waivers from start to start and leaves him susceptible to a bad start every now and again, but his insane strikeout ability and unhittable stuff means that he will throw more gems than clunkers. His current DL stint could be beneficial for him in the long run as this will allow him to limit his innings this season and go deeper into 2016. Glasnow is worth owning in all leagues as there are few pitchers who can match his strikeout upside.

Lucas Giolito (SP, WAS) - 11% owned

But one such pitcher who could match Glasnow’s strikeout ability is this guy, top baseball pitching prospect Lucas Giolito. However, thanks to another rough outing, he was sent back down to the minors following his most recent start. He is a great starter, there is no doubt about it, but he clearly needs some more time in the minors to work on his stuff before he is ready to rejoin the rotation for a full season. And with Washington owning one of the best rotations in baseball, there is no rush to get him up to the big leagues this season. At this point, he might be worth a stash in deeper leagues in the event that any of the Washington starters are traded/injured, but as of right now he may not be worth owning in most redraft leagues.

Braden Shipley (SP, ARI) - 2% owned

It is unknown at this point whether or not Shipley will stay in the big league rotation or be sent back down to Triple-A to continue to improve. Considered by most to be the top prospect in the Diamondbacks’ system, Shipley has a lot of hype around him, but failed to deliver on that hype in his big league debut when he got kicked around, particularly in the sixth inning. Before he reached the majors, he had thrown 119.1 innings at Triple-A. There he owned a 3.70 ERA and 3.81 FIP, 5.81 K/9, 1.66 BB/9 and 0.53 HR/9. Does that strikeout rate seem low? It should, he has never been much of a strikeout guy in his MiLB career and probably does not figure to be one in the big leagues.

Shipley is a solid pitcher, capable of filling in the role of a middle-back-of-the-rotation starter. He has a pretty high floor given his excellent command and sound stuff, but he will never be a great strikeout pitcher and never be a one or two starter in the rotation. He is a solid pitcher and might get another shot at a big league rotation later this season, but given his track record of low strikeout rates, he is probably not worth owning in most standard redraft leagues.

Jeffrey Wendelken (RP, OAK) - 0% owned

As we often do on this list, we come across the recently promoted relief pitchers. Wendelken had a high strikeout rate of 12.52 K/9 at Triple-A, but he also had 5.15 BB/9 and 1.23 HR/9 rates. Unlike other relievers previously covered on these lists, Wendelken does not profile as a setup guy or closer as he has a fastball in the low-90s and poor command. He is not worth owning in a league of any sort.

George Baumann (RP, SD) - 0% owned

Another reliever who lacks the stuff to be at the backend of the bullpen, Buddy Baumann has not let his lack of stuff slow him down and has been a solid reliever throughout the Minor Leagues. With a 10.18 K/9 and reasonable 3.98 BB/9, he has shown himself to have the strikeout stuff and respectable command necessary to be a decent reliever. With that said, he profiles only as a situational lefty for the Padres and does not warrant owning in any leagues as he is unlikely to do anything particularly special this season.

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