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Dave's Week 11 NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers. Get his best Week 11 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
Another weekend of NFL action is upon us. That means another opportunity to make a profit in the player prop market. As the season progresses, the sportsbooks continue to make adjustments on their end when it comes to setting prop lines. We had another good example of this with Quinshon Judkins’ props against the New York Jets last weekend. After New York traded away standout defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, it looked like it would be a smash spot for Judkins. His rushing line, though, was priced in the mid-80s. This was a high number and was a little too close to his ceiling even in a plus matchup.
Fast forward to game time, and Judkins only registered 75 rushing yards and failed to surpass his rushing line. We didn’t bite on Judkins’ rushing totals but instead attacked him through his longest rush prop, as this was an admittedly good matchup on paper to target. Unfortunately, we didn't hit that bet and wound up taking the loss as the Jets' run defense also did a great job limiting explosive plays. Those are the breaks of the game, though, and it serves as another reminder that there is no such thing as a “lock” in this crazy business. Time to flush away all that from Week 10, though, as there’s no time to celebrate wins or dwell on losses.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Let's dive into some of my favorite player props for Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season.
Week 11 Passing Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes OVER 259.5 Passing Yards (-113) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .57 Units to Win .5 units
The Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league, and their pass defense has been exceptional. Denver ranks fourth in FTN Fantasy’s defensive passing DVOA and has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game in the league.
However, the Broncos will be missing star cornerback Patrick Surtain II in this game, and his absence will greatly hinder Denver’s ability to guard wide receivers Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown.
The Chiefs' ground game could struggle to find traction against a Broncos defense that ranks third in defensive rushing DVOA. That could mean the best way for Kansas City to move the ball is by attacking a Broncos secondary that will be missing its best cover corner.
I’m banking on that being the case and believe we could see the Chiefs' passing game expose some weakness in the Broncos' defense. Look for a big game from Mahomes here as the Chiefs might win this game going away.
Mahomes goes to Kelce to extend the @Chiefs lead!
WASvsKC on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/c41zTACFoq— NFL (@NFL) October 28, 2025
Baker Mayfield UNDER 222.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .44 Units to Win .4 Units
Mayfield bounced back in Week 10 against the New England Patriots following a few subpar outings. He could struggle to surpass this total this weekend, but not because the Bills have been outstanding against the pass. Buffalo actually ranks 24th in PFF pass coverage grade. Mayfield may not eclipse this line because Tampa Bay may not need to throw the football much to win this game.
The Bills' run defense has been terrible so far this season, and Buffalo has repeatedly been gashed on the ground by opponents. Tampa Bay is likely to deploy a run-heavy attack to expose this weakness in Buffalo’s defense. With star running back Bucky Irving possibly returning from a knee injury, this is a perfect spot for the Buccaneers to post a crooked rushing total similar to what the Miami Dolphins did against Buffalo in Week 10. Even if Irving cannot suit up, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker are capable of exploiting this weakness in Buffalo's defense.
That would mean fewer passing attempts and thus fewer passing yards for Mayfield, too. So, I like fading Tampa Bay’s QB1 this weekend.
Week 11 Rushing Prop Bets
Jaylen Warren UNDER 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-125) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1 Unit
The Steelers take on the Cincinnati Bengals this weekend in a rematch from Week 7. The Bengals' run defense has been awful, and the team allows a whopping 166.4 rushing yards per game, which is the most in the league.
Warren ran for 127 rushing yards in that Week 7 game, but had only 16 carries in a competitive game script. In fact, Warren has had more than 17 carries in a game only once during his four-year career.
With Pittsburgh listed as 5.5-point favorites here, they could very well be playing with a lead for most of this game. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean more carries for Warren. The team could involve Kenneth Gainwell and Kaleb Johnson more to spell Warren, and to further exploit the Bengals' weakness. They could also do so if this game gets out of hand. If Pittsburgh were to unexpectedly fall behind by multiple scores, that would also mean fewer carries for Warren.
We have multiple outs to hit this prop, and this number feels just a tad high. This line has fallen to 16.5 at most other books, so get your bets in now before this 17.5 number is gone.
Kyren Williams UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Williams is coming off a strong performance in Week 10, where he ran for 73 rushing yards and scored two touchdowns. He now draws a tough matchup against one of the best run defenses in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks rank second in defensive rushing DVOA, fifth in PFF rushing defense grade, and allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game. Williams has also begun ceding work to backup Blake Corum. The two backs split carries evenly in Week 10, and Corum has had double-digit rushing attempts in three straight games. This backfield could be moving toward a more committee-style approach.
If that’s the case, Williams will need to be efficient with his touches to surpass the above rushing total. Efficiency is something Williams has struggled with at times, and this is a matchup where we could see those issues resurface. Throw in the possibility of losing touches to Corum, and I like the idea of fading Williams this week.
Kenneth Walker III UNDER 45.5 Rushing Yards (-118) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .47 Units to Win .4 Units
Walker continues to be stuck in a timeshare with fellow running back Zach Charbonnet. It’s been frustrating to watch as Walker has clearly been the more effective back. Here are Walker and Charbonnet’s ranks (among 43 backs with 55+ carries) in several stats and advanced metrics (data courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite):
Walker
- 18th in yards per carry
- Fifth in explosive run rate
- 12th in explosive rushing yards
- 32nd in rushing success rate
- Sixth in missed tackles forced
- Third in missed tackles forced per attempt
- 24th in yards after contact
Charbonnet
- 43rd in yards per carry
- 29th in explosive run rate
- 34th in explosive rushing yards
- 34th in rushing success rate
- 26th in missed tackles forced
- 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt
- 25th in yards after contact
We could split hairs on a few of these ratings, but Walker has clearly been the better back this year. It’s fair to wonder why the coaching staff has been so stubborn about this timeshare. However, that is neither here nor there, and Walker remains in a committee regardless of what the data says.
Now he takes on a Los Angeles Rams team that has been quite good at shutting down opposing running backs. Los Angeles has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to running backs this season and ranks second in PFF’s rushing defense grade.
Both of these teams boast strong rushing defenses, and that means this game goes one of two directions - a high-scoring affair where both teams are moving the ball at will with their prolific passing attacks. Or a low-scoring, defensive game where both teams struggle to move the football.
Neither scenario sounds good for a running back stuck in a timeshare.
Week 11 Receiving Prop Bets
Justin Jefferson OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.14 Units to Win 1 Unit
Jefferson has struggled in J.J. McCarthy’s four starts this year. His yardage totals in games started by McCarthy are 44, 81, 47, and 37. That’s obviously not good, hence the lower total on Jefferson’s receiving line this week. However, this could be a good spot to buy the dip on Jefferson.
Chicago only ranks 25th in PFF’s pass coverage grade and allows the seventh-most passing yards per game. The Bears have also allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
Also working in Jefferson’s favor is that McCarthy has not shied away from hyper-targeting his WR1. Jefferson has been targeted 21 times in two games since McCarthy returned to the lineup. That kind of volume will eventually translate to production.
Even though McCarthy and Jefferson have struggled to get on the same page, I like the latter’s chances of eclipsing this total. Jefferson also draws a plus matchup in RotoBaller’s Week 11 WR/CB matchup chart, so I am betting on him surpassing this line and think he is live to crack triple digits for the third time this year. I played this number at 69.5, but still think there is plenty of value at the current mark.
A.J. Brown OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-130) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.3 Units to Win 1 Unit
I’m going to bite on A.J. Brown here as this line is just too low for a player of Brown’s caliber. Detroit’s pass defense has had some issues this year, and the team only ranks 28th in DVOA against opposing WR1s.
Philadelphia’s offense has been abysmal for most of 2025, but this is a spot where Detroit could push the Eagles into a more competitive game script. Detroit also allows the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game and ranks sixth in PFF’s rushing defense grade, so Philadelphia may not get away with a conservative, run-heavy offensive game plan here.
We also have a squeaky wheel narrative working in our favor following Brown’s comments on a Twitch live stream earlier this week, so I like buying the dip on Brown in this spot. I played this line at 55.5 for a full unit, and would be comfortable doing so up to 60.5.
Week 11 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Jonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown (+250) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win 1.25 Units
The Bengals rank 31st in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed a league-high 12 receiving touchdowns to tight ends this year. The next closest team has allowed seven.
Smith has only scored two touchdowns this year. However, this is a great matchup for him to find the end zone.
Initially, I wanted to play Darnell Washington’s anytime touchdown prop, but his odds are way too high for a player who’s scored two career touchdowns. So, instead, I’ll settle on Smith, who has slightly better odds than fellow tight end Pat Freiermuth.
Luther Burden III Anytime Touchdown (+650) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .3 Units to Win 1.95 Units
Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Burden’s 2.78 yards per route run is the most of any Bears wide receiver this year. He deserves a bigger role on offense, and with D.J. Moore nursing a shoulder injury, we might see it this weekend.
Even though it looks like Moore will play, I still think Burden is live to score as he’s a dynamic weapon with the ball in his hands. Chicago may need to get creative with Burden if it wants to pull off a road upset over the Minnesota Vikings. I’ll take a stab at Burden to find the end zone at these odds.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+210) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.1 Units
Rodriguez is set to play this weekend after a shoulder injury forced him to leave the team’s Week 10 game against the Detroit Lions. It’s a good thing he will suit up here, as the Dolphins' run defense has not been very good this season.
It’s already been reported that Rodriguez will have a major role on offense in this game.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. to Have a Key Role in Week 11 https://t.co/SA5kbZvdBb
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) November 12, 2025
With Miami fresh off a surprise upset win against the Buffalo Bills, Washington could be live to win this game outright. If that’s the case, then Rodriguez will be playing in a favorable game script, and I like his chances of finding the end zone again this weekend.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Check back later for several long shot picks!
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play-calling and thus affect props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 11 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 259.5 Passing Yards (-113) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Baker Mayfield UNDER 222.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Jaylen Warren UNDER 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-125) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Kyren Williams UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Kenneth Walker III UNDER 45.5 Rushing Yards (-118) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Justin Jefferson OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114) DraftKings Sportsbook
- A.J. Brown OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-130) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Jonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown (+250) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Luther Burden III Anytime Touchdown (+650) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+210) BetMGM Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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