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Welcome back RotoBallers to Part 3 of my dynasty prospects list, breaking down the 1-50 ranked prospects. You can also read Part 1 and Part 2 from a few days ago, looking at the 51-150 and 151-250 ranked prospects. RotoBaller's Top 250 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects list is back and refreshed for the 2021 season. Baseball has undergone a lot of change over the past 12 months due to the pandemic and no area of the game has been more heavily impacted than the minor leagues. Since this time last year, Minor League Baseball has significantly shrunk in size, there have been no competitive games, and most top-rated MLB prospects spent the 2020 regular season stuck in purgatory at their clubs’ alternate training sites.
For MLB prospect watchers like yours truly, the lack of competitive games has made prognosticating more challenging than ever before. Instead of picking and choosing what video to watch — because there is simply too much to keep up with on a part-time basis — it’s been a desperate search to scrape together valuable snippets of video, the parsing of interviews with scouts and player development staff, and the analysis of the small bits of data available. This past year has been the most unique experience I've had in the past 15 years while writing about MLB prospects on the internet — and ranking prospects is never an easy task.
With the list below, you’ll find that I put a lot of emphasis on experience. More than ever, MLB prospects with an ample number of professional games under their belts have significant advantages over the high-ceiling, non-established players. You’ll also find that my prospect rankings are heavily influenced by a player’s makeup — how coachable they are, how open to change they are, etc. I’ve worked in people management in a corporate environment and I can assure you that a person’s makeup goes a long way to helping them achieve great things — and sports is no different. OK, let's get to it.
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Updated Dynasty Prospect Rankings: 1-50
My review of the Top 250 Dynasty Prospects for 2021 has been broken into three parts. Today, we continue the review with the prospects ranked 1-50. You can also read Part 1 for the 151-250 ranked prospects and Part 2 for the 51-150 ranked prospects.
Players with fewer than 130 MLB at-bats and 50 innings pitched were considered eligible for this list. Service time was not taken into consideration. Foreign players with significant professional experience were also not considered.
| Ranking | Player | Pos | Team | Age | ETA |
| 1 | Jarred Kelenic | OF | SEA | 21 | 2021 |
| 2 | Wander Franco | SS | TB | 19 | 2021 |
| 3 | Marco Luciano | SS | SF | 19 | 2023 |
| 4 | Nate Pearson | SP | TOR | 24 | 2020 |
| 5 | Julio Rodriguez | OF | SEA | 20 | 2022 |
| 6 | Andrew Vaughn | 1B | CHW | 22 | 2021 |
| 7 | Spencer Torkelson | 1B | DET | 21 | 2022 |
| 8 | MacKenzie Gore | SP | SD | 21 | 2021 |
| 9 | Alex Kirilloff | OF | MIN | 23 | 2021 |
| 10 | Austin Martin | 3B | TOR | 21 | 2022 |
| 11 | Dylan Carlson | OF | STL | 22 | 2020 |
| 12 | Adley Rutschman | C | BAL | 23 | 2022 |
| 13 | Ian Anderson | SP | ATL | 22 | 2020 |
| 14 | Riley Greene | OF | DET | 20 | 2022 |
| 15 | Francisco Alvarez | C | NYM | 19 | 2023 |
| 16 | Matt Manning | SP | DET | 23 | 2021 |
| 17 | Zac Veen | OF | COL | 19 | 2023 |
| 18 | Jasson Dominguez | OF | NYY | 18 | 2024 |
| 19 | Trevor Larnach | OF | MIN | 23 | 2021 |
| 20 | Randy Arozarena | OF | TB | 25 | 2021 |
| 21 | Casey Mize | SP | DET | 23 | 2020 |
| 22 | Spencer Howard | SP | PHI | 24 | 2020 |
| 23 | Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | KC | 20 | 2022 |
| 24 | Sixto Sanchez | SP | MIA | 22 | 2020 |
| 25 | CJ Abrams | SS | SD | 20 | 2023 |
| 26 | Grayson Rodriguez | SP | BAL | 21 | 2022 |
| 27 | Tarik Skubal | SP | DET | 24 | 2020 |
| 28 | Nick Gonzales | 2B | PIT | 21 | 2022 |
| 29 | Triston McKenzie | SP | CLE | 23 | 2020 |
| 30 | Nolan Jones | 3B | CLE | 22 | 2021 |
| 31 | Jordan Groshans | 3B/SS | TOR | 21 | 2022 |
| 32 | Max Meyer | SP | MIA | 21 | 2022 |
| 33 | Josh Jung | 3B | TEX | 22 | 2022 |
| 34 | Orelvis Martinez | 3B/SS | TOR | 19 | 2023 |
| 35 | Asa Lacy | SP | KC | 21 | 2022 |
| 36 | Daniel Lynch | SP | KC | 24 | 2021 |
| 37 | Luis Patino | SP | TB | 21 | 2020 |
| 38 | Daulton Varsho | C/OF | ARI | 24 | 2020 |
| 39 | Corbin Carroll | OF | ARI | 20 | 2022 |
| 40 | Jackson Kowar | SP | KC | 24 | 2021 |
| 41 | Vidal Brujan | 2B | TB | 23 | 2021 |
| 42 | Joey Bart | C | SF | 24 | 2020 |
| 43 | Nolan Gorman | 3B | STL | 20 | 2022 |
| 44 | Logan Gilbert | SP | SEA | 23 | 2021 |
| 45 | Robert Hassell | OF | SD | 19 | 2023 |
| 46 | Jo Adell | OF | LAA | 21 | 2020 |
| 47 | Geraldo Perdomo | SS | ARI | 21 | 2021 |
| 48 | Jose Garcia | SS | CIN | 22 | 2020 |
| 49 | Brailyn Marquez | SP | CHC | 22 | 2020 |
| 50 | Oneil Cruz | SS | PIT | 22 | 2022 |
Prospects 1-10
1. Jarred Kelenic, OF: The best prospect in the game, Kelenic has a natural feel for hitting along with the ability to produce plus power and the speed for 20+ steals. He also has great makeup and a drive to be the best. I would easily take him over any other prospect in baseball right now. Sincerest apologies, Mets fans.
2. Wander Franco, SS: Franco is another naturally-gifted hitter who should challenge for multiple batting titles. The power tool is not as developed as his other skills but it will eventually catch up thanks to the lightning-quick bat speed.
3. Marco Luciano, SS: Luciano hasn't played above short-season ball thanks to the pandemic but he should make up for lost time this season. He's a threat to hit for both average and power but lacks the speed of the two players ahead of him.
4. Nate Pearson, SP: This hard-throwing hurler had an uncharacteristically rough 2020 season due to command and control issues likely brought on by an injury he tried to pitch through. Expect improved results in 2021 if Pearson is healthy although all Jays pitchers will be challenged by the hitter-friendly confines of the stadium in Dunedin, Florida.
5. Julio Rodriguez, OF: Rodriguez reached high-A ball at the age of 18, which is no easy task. Injuries and the pandemic have since slowed his pace. He should hit for power and has the speed to provide double-digit steal totals.
6. Andrew Vaughn, 1B: For me, Vaughn has a slight edge over Spencer Torkelson because he's a better overall hitter albeit with a little less power. He could be a .290-.300 hitter with 25+ home runs and a strong on-base presence.
7. Spencer Torkelson, 1B: Torkelson is not far behind Vaughn but I have some concerns over the swing-and-miss tendencies the Tigers' prospect showed in college (They were noticeably higher than Pete Alonso, for example).
8. MacKenzie Gore, SP: Gore doesn't have a clear path to a regular role in 2021 but he should debut at the MLB level this year and will soon be one of the top arms in the game. He has a deep repertoire, a good pitcher's frame, excellent makeup, and a chance for above-average command/control.
9. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Injuries have slowed his ascent but he should settle into a major league role in 2021 with an eye towards becoming a middle-of-the-order run producer. He should hit .289-.300 with 25-30 home runs in his prime.
10. Austin Martin, 3B/SS/OF: Martin was the most talented overall hitter in the 2020 draft. He'll likely play multiple positions as a big leaguer, which only enhances his fantasy baseball value. The biggest question mark revolves around how much power he'll produce but I see the potential for at least 20 homers.
Prospects 11-30
11. Dylan Carlson, OF: I expected a hiccup or two during Carlson's MLB debut so the early struggles have not dimmed my outlook on him. He won't be a big base stealer or hit for a high average but there is impressive power here.
12. Adley Rutschman, C: Rutschman is talented, no argument, but I'm less enthused on his overall ceiling than some. Offensive outputs for catchers rarely meet or exceed expectations due to the rigors of the role. Proceed cautiously.
13. Ian Anderson, SP: I've been a huge Anderson fan for a couple of years now. He doesn't throw the hardest, he doesn't have a huge arsenal of pitches but he has a solid mix of tangible and intangible abilities that mesh well.
14. Riley Greene, OF: Greene is one of the best hitting prospects in the game and there still aren't enough people talking about him. He had a huge showing in spring training last year before the pandemic wreaked havoc on the season. He could be a Top 5 prospect in a year's time.
15. Francisco Alvarez, C: Alvarez keeps shooting up the rankings. He's an incredibly advanced hitter for his age but he'll need to keep an eye on his conditioning and continue to work on his defence.
16. Matt Manning, SP: The Tigers organization has assembled one of the most impressive groups of pitching prospects in the game. I'm possibly alone on an island by thinking that Manning will outperform Casey Mize but I'm ok with that -- the gap between the two likely won't be very large.
17. Zac Veen, OF: My projections on Riley Greene -- which began over a year ago -- have looked pretty good so far and Veen is right up there for me. He's a naturally-gifted hitter with plus power potential as he continues to physically mature.
18. Jasson Dominguez, OF: Dominguez is such a wildcard that it's difficult to place him this high but his potential impact is worth the risk. Temper your enthusiasm by remembering that he has yet to play even one pro game.
19. Trevor Larnach, OF: The Twins organization has a lot of upper-level depth in the corner outfield, as well as at first base and the designated hitter slot. That will make it difficult for Larnach to find playing time in 2021 but he has a bright future and could eventually hit 30 homers in the Majors.
20. Randy Arozarena, OF: Arozarena became a household name during the 2020 playoffs and he has all the tools to continue to be a very good baseball player moving forward. He might even provide a few 20-20 (HR-SB) seasons while hitting for a strong average.
21. Casey Mize, SP: The 2020 season was a dud for Mize but he nonetheless remains an intriguing long-term option. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter and is a little safer bet to reach that ceiling compared to the arms ranked just below him.
22. Spencer Howard, SP: Howard reached the Majors in 2020 with a lot of hype but he struggled. The young pitcher has an impressive repertoire that should allow him to reach his lofty ceiling once he improves both his command and his control.
23. Bobby Witt Jr., SS: Witt Jr. is a player that keeps generating a ton of positive reports but the pandemic has made it impossible for me to see him in game action. He's high on my list of players to watch early on in 2021 to get a better feel for his future.
24. Sixto Sanchez, SP: Sanchez had a solid debit in 2020. He's a little lower down the list than some of the other talented arms because his strikeout rates aren't as strong due to his heavy reliance on ground-ball outs. On the plus side, that also makes him less prone to the home run.
25. CJ Abrams, SS: I loved Abrams entering the 2019 draft and had him ranked as a Top 3 talent. He's performed better than I expected in pro ball so far and I'm excited to see if he'll continue to hit with the unexpected power he showed in his debut. Even if he doesn't, he should hit for a high average with 30-40 steals possible.
26. Grayson Rodriguez, SP: Rodriguez is an underrated arm and would likely have a lot more hype if he played for a New York team. He has great size, durability, and a powerful repertoire. There is No. 1/2 starter ceiling here, but the Orioles organization also does not have a great track record for developing starters.
27. Tarik Skubal, SP: Skubal has an outside chance of reaching Mize's ceiling but he's more likely to settle in as more of a talented mid-rotation starter. He has the stuff to rack up some high strikeout rates but his command is inconsistent.
28. Nick Gonzales, 2B: Gonzales' college numbers received a boost from hitting at the college equivalent of Coors Field but the ball absolutely jumps off his bat and he has a great approach. He should be an impact bat for the Pirates.
29. Triston McKenzie, SP: McKenzie missed close to two years worth of development time before returning to competitive action at the MLB level in 2020. His ceiling will be improved if he can rediscover some of the velocity that was M-I-A in 2020.
30. Nolan Jones, 3B: Jones is a powerful third baseman that hits too many balls on the ground to realize his full potential. I have confidence that he'll make adjustments to create an improved launch angle and has 30-homer raw power. He's also a must-have in on-base leagues due to his walk totals.
Prospects 31-50
31. Jordan Groshans, SS/3B: The Jays organization is loaded with infield talent. Groshans has excellent makeup and a huge drive to succeed, which should help him make up for lost development time after missing much of 2019 due to a foot injury and 2020 because of the pandemic.
32. Max Meyer, SP: Meyer made huge gains prior to the 2020 draft and was the first pitcher off the board at third overall. He has an electric fastball-slider mix but there is some concern that he's bound for a high-leverage relief role due to the lack of a reliable third offering and durability concerns (He's just 6-feet tall).
33. Josh Jung, 3B: I was a huge fan of Jung in the lead up to the 2019 draft and he continues to look like a player that will hit in the middle of the lineup while providing a strong average and producing 20-25 home runs.
34. Orelvis Martinez, SS: Martinez has a huge offensive ceiling and had a very strong showing in Rookie ball in 2019 before the pandemic shut things down in 2020. He may not stick at shortstop but he should hit for both average and power.
35. Asa Lacy, SP: The second arm selected in the 2020 draft, Lacy was under consideration for the first overall pick. A proven college record and premium stuff could get this lefty to the Major Leagues in a hurry and he has No. 1/2 starter upside.
36. Daniel Lynch, SP: I'm a big fan of Lynch and he comes in a shade under Lacy due to durability concerns. He's battled through arm injuries and has yet to prove capable of holding up to 180-200 innings per season which puts his ceiling a little lower as a possible No. 2/3 starter.
37. Luis Patino, SP: Patino was rushed to the Majors in 2020 and struggled with his control while working in an unfamiliar role out of the bullpen. He was then traded in the offseason from one strong development system to another so I continue to have high hopes for this young arm who held his own at the MLB level despite the challenges.
38. Daulton Varsho, C/OF: It's extremely rare to find a player that has the potential to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases -- and qualify as a catcher -- but that's exactly what we have with Varsho and why he's ranked so highly. He'll probably play the outfield more often as a big leaguer but he should still squat behind the plate enough to qualify at catcher.
39. Corbin Carroll, OF: Carroll would be even higher on this list if he was guaranteed to hit for power. The young outfielder is a gifted hitter with blazing speed -- he's basically Jarred Kelenic-lite.
40. Jackson Kowar, SP: Kowar is the third Royals starter within the Top 50 -- with Brady Singer and Kris Bubic having graduated to the major leagues last year. He's another proven college arm with strong stuff and he has a great pitcher's frame. He has the ceiling of a No. 2/3 starter.
41. Vidal Brujan, 2B: Brujan is a speedy infielder who makes a lot of contact and has shown the ability to steal 30-40 bases at the MLB level. He's not an overly big player but he has a quick bat and could eventually hit 15 home runs.
42. Joey Bart, C: Bart flashed his plus power potential in 2020 but also showed that he has some significant adjustments that need to take place if he's going to make more contact and have a better opportunity to realize his full potential.
43. Nolan Gorman, 3B: Hype has followed Gorman around since his high school days due to his plus raw power. He hasn't really shown much improvement as a hitter since turning pro but the 30-40 home run potential remains tantalizing.
44. Logan Gilbert, SP: I had Gilbert ranked as one of the Top 5 arms available in the 2018 draft. He doesn't have the same electric stuff as the arms listed higher on this list but he has a chance for four above-average offerings, has a history of missing bats, and throws a lot of strikes.
45. Robert Hassell III, OF: The 2020 draft featured a number of talented prep outfielders and Hassell III was easily my favorite due to his natural hitting abilities. There are some questions about his ability to hit for power but I think he'll get to at least 20 homers per year at maturity.
46. Jo Adell, OF: Adell had a very disappointing year in 2020 and lost the confidence of his manager, which is never a good thing. I think he'll figure it out in the long run but his ceiling may have lowered a little bit and he may end up as more of a solid big league regular rather than a star. But it's also far too soon to give up on him.
47. Geraldo Perdomo, SS: Perdomo is a gifted hitter with a natural feel for the barrel. He also has the speed to steal 20+ bases. His biggest need is to get stronger although he may always be more of a doubles hitter rather than a true slugger.
48. Jose Garcia, SS: Garcia was an intriguing sleeper entering the 2020 season but he struggled during a brief MLB trial. Once he gets back on track, he has a chance to hit for a solid average while providing surprising pop. Garcia likely needs a little more polish before he's ready to make an impact in the majors.
49. Brailyn Marquez, SP: Marquez is still raw and needs to work on his command but he can dial up his heater into the triple digits. He backs it up with a potentially-plus slider and has good size for a pitcher. He needs a reliable third offering and also to throw more quality strikes.
50. Oneil Cruz, SS: On raw talent alone, Cruz could be higher on this list. However, he has yet to fully tap into his massive raw power potential and I have significant concerns with his maturity/makeup.
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