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Ah yes, the ol' catcher slot. A treacherous minefield where most people seem to be playing for the "friendliest loss" with who they settle for at the position. Well fear not, as here are three players who are set to breakout in 2016. When I say breakout, I don't mean going from 0-to-100 just like that, but they are in a position to breakout from the Opening Day perception surrounding them to the next level. Without further ado, let's dig in.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2016, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
Three Breakouts At Catcher For 2016
Remember Jason Kendall? Those years in the late 1990s and early 2000s when he hit double-digit home runs alongside 20 stolen bases and an average in the .300s were quite something.
Okay, so J.T. Realmuto is not the second coming of Jason Kendall, but he may very well be Kendall-lite moving forward. We’re not in the steroid-era anymore anyway, so the difference isn’t all that exaggerated. Realmuto finished last year with 467 PAs, logging 49 runs, 10 homers, 47 RBIs, and eight steals with a .259 average.
His 2014 in Double-A saw him hit eight homers with 18 bags and a .299 average, while his Single-A 2011 had him go 12 HRs/13 SBs in 381 PAs, so this is indeed backed by a minor league record. His .147 ISO last year was in line with his minor league totals as well, and he was only 24 last year.
Entering his age-25 season, Realmuto stands to be the primary catcher for the Marlins and should rack up about 500 PAs. The average won’t approach .300, but if he can go at least 10/10 for you then you’ll be fine with that .260 average. Hope for the runs + RBI totals to surpass 100, with a decent shot at hitting 125. Again, we’re not expecting major growth out of him in any one department, but he has the foundation set in all five rotisserie categories to be useful.
Gomes Breakout: The Redux. He’s still being drafted behind guys like Matt Wieters and Stephen Vogt, both of whom have their own respective fleas with less upside. Gomes’ 2013 put him on the map, and his 2014 had many foaming at the mouth for 2015. Unfortunately, he suffered a knee injury in the opening days of the season last year and it took him a long time to even half-resemble the man we came to love.
He managed 389 PAs after all was said and done last year, hitting 12 homers with 45 RBIs with a measly .231 average. You could tell he wasn’t the same in the batter’s box, and this was reflected in his ability to get on base (.285 BABIP vs. .342 and .326 in 2013 and 2014, respectively) and probably to get that foot down and pull the ball comfortably as well.
Interestingly enough, he hit less grounders and bumped up his line drive rate most of all (24.0% to 26.4%) and made contact with balls swung at in the zone at a career-high rate, going from 83.4% in 2014 to 88.4% last year. He made more contact, but he just couldn’t get the same oomph behind it, seeing his hard-hit rate go down from 31.0% to 27.5% and his ISO dropped from .194 to .160.
Here’s the thing, his ISO in the first half was .109 and in the second half it was right back at .194. With a healthy offseason in the books, Gomes has a great opportunity to jump right back into the “non-Posey” tier of catchers. If that knee of his is truly 100% and he can burst out again at 2014 levels, then Gomes’ age-28 season could yield a surprising 25 home runs alongside a .260 average.
Grandal stands to be a prime candidate to have a sustained breakout in 2016 should good health bless him this year. There were quite a few catchers who faded in the second half last year, but Grandal’s fade was due to a shoulder injury which offseason surgery and rest should have cleared up.
Grandal’s first half saw him get 257 PAs, hitting .282 in them with 14 home runs and 36 RBIs. His much-maligned second half had 169 PAs for Grandal, which only yielded two dingers with a horrid .162 average. So basically, he half broke-out, but recency bias and what his year-end numbers look like will cause many to overlook him.
Do note that his career numbers point to a pretty even split when it comes to lefties (.244/.352/.380) and righties (.240/.351/.417), though you can see the slugging percentage jumps a bit against righties. Last year his average against lefties was .308 compared to a .221 average vs. righties, but his BABIP vs. LHP was .417 while it was .243 vs. RHP, so don’t overreact. The point here is you don’t need to micromanage the guy or worry about platoons so much (unless you’re really chasing the longball only).
If he can stay healthy throughout the whole season, there’s little reason to think that the 2010 12th overall pick can’t give you a shot at 25 homers while delivering ~140 runs + RBIs. His hard hit rate was 34.6% in the first half last year, which is what top catcher Buster Posey posted for last year, good for 36th overall from qualified hitters in 2015. He blasts the ball with authority, and as long as he doesn’t take another pitch to the shoulder causing his swing to have less behind it than my five year old cousin’s, then the breakout will happen.
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