July 23, 2016

Jack analyzes players who he is avoiding at their current ADP for 2016 Fantasy Football drafts.

With only a month or two left until your fantasy draft, it’s about time you started getting your big board ready. Here’s a list of players who represent bad value at their ADP, broken down round by round. Note that most of these players are not necessarily bad fantasy options, but just rather overvalued relative to players picked around them.

ADP Data is provided by Fantasy Football Calculator as of 07/22/2016

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Consider Avoiding Drafting Players With High ADPs

1st Round: Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys Running Back

The problem with Ezekiel Elliott really isn’t a problem with anything we know. In this case, it’s really all about what we don’t know. Elliott hasn’t played a single down in the NFL, and he’s already being drafted as a top 10 player. There are unquestionably much safer picks in the 1st round, and you, as a responsible fantasy player, should pick one of them, such as Adrian Peterson or Lamar Miller.

2nd Round: Mike Evans, Buccaneers Wide Receiver

Mike Evans isn’t a bad receiver, or even a bad fantasy player. Unfortunately, his 2nd round price tag is just too high to justify picking him over other 2nd round receivers. Consider picking Allen Robinson if you can, or Keenan Allen if you’re in a PPR league. Even if WRs are going fast, Brandon Marshall should put up more consistent points this year than Evans, who struggled with drop problems in 2015 and he  has yet to make the jump into an elite-tier fantasy option.

3rd Round: Brandin Cooks, Saints Wide Receiver

At his current ADP, which reaches as high as the end of the 2nd round in PPR drafts, Brandin Cooks is undoubtedly the most overvalued player in 2016 fantasy drafts. His value is based almost entirely on an assumption that he will make the immediate jump into WR1 territory this year, but this is almost entirely unfounded - despite putting up decent stats in his second season in the NFL, Cooks owners will remember that his fantasy performance was still underwhelming at best. Compare this to similar value receivers going as late as the 5th and 6th round, and Cooks may be the least valuable player in the first three rounds, hands down.

4th Round: Carlos Hyde, 49ers Running Back / Jordan Reed, Redskins Tight End

The 4th round is filled with solid options, especially at running back. Carlos Hyde may have the starting job in San Francisco, but Chip Kelly’s Wild Ride may have something else in store for Hyde. DeMarco Murray is going after Hyde, and represents more talent and similar positional value.

Jordan Reed performed like a 4th round TE last year - when he was healthy. Unfortunately, his playing style results in a myriad of injuries that never seem to go away. Reed is probably one concussion away from never seeing the field again. Match that with an expected regression to the mean in 2016, and Reed is overvalued in the 4th round of 2016 fantasy drafts.

5th Round: Russell Wilson, Seahawks Quarterback

Drafting a QB early is almost always a bad move. Top fantasy QBs outside the #1 or #2 overall shift wildly from year to year, and expecting Wilson to match his production from the 2nd half of 2015 is optimistic at best. Wilson should be a serviceable, and possibly even top 5 fantasy QB, but another top 5 fantasy QB like Blake Bortles can be had over 2 rounds cheaper.

6th Round: Melvin Gordon, Chargers Running Back

Put simply, Melvin Gordon played terribly in 2015. He is currently being drafted as the 28th overall RB in standard, despite finishing 53rd overall and near 70th in points per game. Arguably, drafting Gordon in the 6th would be a worse choice than drafting Brandin Cooks in the 2nd. Gordon needs to make an unbelievable jump in 2016 just to be fantasy relevant, and I doubt the Chargers have much trust in his ability to do so. Gordon has little value in any round of the draft before the 10th. Expect his teammate, Danny Woodhead, to do much of the best work in the San Diego backfield.

7th Round: Kevin White, Bears Wide Receiver 

Kevin White still hasn’t played a snap in the NFL. He was in a great position to succeed in 2015, but with a full year off and nothing tangible to show for it, White is overvalued in the 7th round. If you’d like to take a chance on a young receiver, try Tyler Lockett at a similar price, or even potentially go for a stable pick and reach for Michael Crabtree.

8th Round: Karlos Williams, Bills Running Back

Karlos Williams is the clear #2 RB on the Bills. Unfortunately for those that draft him, he will sit out the first 4 games of the season. It's entirely likely you'll see him sitting on your waivers come Week 3 or 4, which would be a better time to pick him up if you see handcuff value in him.

9th Round: Denver Defense

There’s no doubt that the Denver Defense should repeat as the real deal this year in 2016. Unfortunately for those who draft Denver, an equally enticing AFC West team D/ST can be found in the 11th round, without any real sacrifice in value. Kansas City finished within one point of Denver, and they should come close to doing so again this year. Denver D/ST will score you points, but it’s silly to draft a defense this early in any season.

10th Round: Kenneth Dixon, Ravens Running Back

The only thing currently known about the RB situation in Baltimore is that Justin Forsett should be the starter. Even in the case of an running back by committee, the backup RBs in Baltimore provide little fantasy value outside of an injury to Forsett. Though he was injured last year, Forsett is not necessarily injury prone, and is currently the only RB in Baltimore worth rostering, in my opinion.

11th Round: Josh Gordon, Browns Wide Reciever

At some point, telling you not to draft players that won’t see the field this year is silly. However, Josh Gordon is still on the league suspension list with a bleak chance of being reinstated before week 1 of the 2016 season, so he is not worth a draft pick or a roster spot. Don't draft him in the 11th, or any later round - take someone who has a better chance at putting up fantasy points instead.

12th Round: Darren McFadden, Cowboys Running Back

Though McFadden had somewhat of a comeback year in 2015, he was quickly shut down by Dallas when they signed Alfred Morris and drafted Ezekiel Elliott. There is little to no chance McFadden sees the field next year in any fantasy relevant manner, and he should be avoided even for players that gain value in the case of an injury, like James Starks or Devontae Booker.

13th Round: Martavis Bryant, Steelers Wide Receiver

Martavis Bryant will not see the field in 2016. Like Josh Gordon, do not draft players whose chances of seeing an NFL field are about as good as finding the winning lottery tickets on the ground at 7-11.

14th Round: Spencer Ware, Chiefs Running Back

There are a lot of terrible picks you could make in the 14th round. Spencer Ware is not a terrible pick per se, but he has little chance of seeing the field this year. Though few 14th round picks will go anywhere, consider picking a player that has value after an injury, like Ted Ginn Jr, or a player with potential flex value, like Kendall Wright.

15th Round: Adam Vinatieri, Colts Kicker

Adam Vinatieri is the oldest active player in the NFL. Though kickers tend to age well, there are better options, even in the 15th round. Pick someone who is consistent and younger, like Blair Walsh or Josh Brown.

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