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Thunder Dan Palyo's running back fantasy football draft targets and fades for 2026. Dan analyzes high-value touches, goal line carries, and receptions data to identify RB sleepers and busts.
If you're reading this, you are probably looking for actionable information you can use to make tough draft-day decisions at the running back position.
Every year, I try to steer my analysis toward the data I focus on most when making those decisions myself. And I am not sure there are two more important data points for running backs when it comes to fantasy production than goal-line touches and passing-game work. We want to target backs who have a chance at racking up rushing touchdowns and those who also can score points through receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.
When we combine the number of rush attempts that a player receives inside the 10-yard line (which go for touchdowns at a much higher rate than Red Zone attempts, which cover those attempts between the 10 and 20-yard line, too), with a player's receptions, we get a relatively new metric known as "high-value touches," coined by analyst Ben Gretch. Let's go tier by tier and crunch some of the most important data for running backs that you should be considering before drafting your teams.
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The Tragedy of Najee Harris
Before we dive into this year's crop of running backs, let's take a minute to discuss the cautionary tale of Najee Harris. By the time I finish the story, it should make sense. Trust me, and indulge me here for a minute.
Harris was a first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers back in 2021. Drafting a running back early is not something the Steelers did often, but they were trying to address their floundering run game in the final year of Big Ben Roethlisberger's career.
Harris had a promising rookie campaign, running for 1,200 yards while also catching 74 passes for another 467 yards. He scored 10 total touchdowns and finished as the RB9 with 15.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues.
But he was never able to match that output again. While he did eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in each of the next three seasons for Pittsburgh, his role in the passing game diminished, and he finished as the RB14, RB20, and RB20 in those subsequent years.
I tell this story to emphasize that a running back can be a true workhorse like Harris (who handled 250+ rushes in all four of those seasons) and still fail to be a dominant fantasy player if they aren't either very productive at the goal line or versatile enough to be used consistently as a receiver.
Harris's career per-game averages across 71 games were 15.6 carries for 61.5 yards and 0.4 touchdowns, while his receiving numbers were 2.5 receptions for 16.5 yards per contest.
That was good for 11.45 points per game in half-PPR leagues. That type of production made Harris a weekly flex play at best, most weeks, as he certainly was not a back you could count on to anchor your production at the RB position weekly.
Backs who derive most of their value from running the football without much upside as pass catchers are backs that I want to avoid, as they usually end up being very touchdown-dependent. And the worst thing to see in the box score is that your running back had a fairly productive day on the ground but failed to score a touchdown and had only a few catches.
For the sake of this article, I am creating my own benchmark for our running backs. Let's go with 75 yards rushing or fewer, three receptions or fewer, and no touchdowns, and we will call it a "Najee Harris game." These are the types of games that we want to avoid!
Tier One Running Backs
You could argue that the top three deserve a tier of their own, but Jonathan Taylor is often the fourth back off the board and is probably being considered as a pivot off Christian McCaffrey, so let's compare him to the best of the best instead of the second tier of top backs.
I am well aware of the San Francisco injury plague (the electrical substation shows no mercy), but let's at least admit that fading McCaffrey is risky, even though he's coming off an insane season where it feels unlikely that he could repeat that level of production while staying healthy again.
The biggest debate here is between Gibbs and Robinson as the number one pick. The context around both backs has changed this year as both have new playcallers and could see more goal-line touches with short-yardage specialists David Montgomery and Tyler Allgeier departing.
Gibbs has a slight edge for me, as I trust Detroit's offense to be more productive week to week, and he edged out Robinson in both high-value touches per game and had a higher percentage of high-value touches (the two last columns on my chart).
Taylor is a pretty distant fourth, with significantly less pass game work than McCaffrey, Gibbs, and Robinson. He did lead the league with 18 rushing touchdowns, but I'm not counting on him to repeat that level of goal line production. He does compare pretty favorably to our next group of backs, however.
Najee Harris Games in 2025
- McCaffrey - 1
- Robinson - 3
- Taylor, Gibbs - 4
Tier Two Running Backs
I should note that the yellow on each chart denotes the leaders from each tier in each stat category, and that the conditional formatting (red and green colors) in the final two columns is based on the average stats for each tier. So in essence, I am making sure we are comparing each back to other backs being drafted around the same ADP.
I should also note that I highlighted players in orange who are set to see major role changes or are on new teams for the 2026 season.
James Cook III and Saquon Barkley both have similar flaws in that they have mobile quarterbacks who are great short-yardage runners who can vulture touchdowns, and neither one has the type of receiving volume that we're after. Both offenses should be very good and therefore some safety that comes with drafting either one, but I think I might prefer to chase the ceiling of some other backs in this tier.
I have seen multiple analysts that I respect a great deal saying that Ashton Jeanty is a first-round pick and has a case to be taken as high as fifth overall. I have to agree; the numbers back up the hype, as Jeanty's 84% share of his team's runs inside the 10-yard line is the best of this tier and even higher than Derrick Henry.
The issue was that he didn't have a large volume of goal-line touches playing on a bad offense. We expect the Raiders to be better this year with an improved offensive line and a highly successful offensive coach, Klint Kubiak. So if Jeanty can improve on his five rushing touchdowns from 2025, while also maintaining his passing-game involvement, we could be looking at a massive second-year breakout.
If you want to draft an aging Derrick Henry in the second round, just know that he's highly touchdown-dependent. There may not be a better short-yardage back in the history of the game, but his total lack of receptions makes him a tough sell for me.
One of the most important questions that we need answered is "What is Kenneth Walker III's role in Kansas City?"
I am well aware of the running back metrics that all demonstrate that he's a very good runner of the football, but his usage in this offense is really what we should care about more, and he's easily one of the more polarizing players in this tier.
The stats show that he was neither a trusted goal-line asset nor much of a factor in the passing game in Seattle when Zach Charbonnet was healthy, but his playoff run and Super Bowl MVP performance are fresh in everyone's minds at the same time.
I'm sure the Chiefs didn't pay Walker a bunch of money to be part of a committee, but I also know that Andy Reid has been quite content to utilize all his backs in various ways during his time in KC and hasn't really utilized a running back as a true three-down guy since Kareem Hunt's rookie year in 2017.
The Chiefs have a few very capable pass-catching backs on the roster in Emari Demercado and Brashard Smith, while they also drafted an explosive runner in Emmett Johnson. I'm probably not drafting Walker at his ADP, especially when I could grab two other backs in the same range that I like better.
Those two backs are Chase Brown and Omarion Hampton. We can see from the chart that they are the top two backs in this tier in both HVT/game and HVT%.
Brown led this group in targets and catches, while still handling the majority of goal-line rushing attempts for his team. His three-down role in Cincinnati is secure, and he might play on the most fantasy-friendly offenses in football as the Bengals can score the ball with ease, but also can't stop anyone else from scoring.
Hampton is one of my favorite targets in the second round and is often taken after Brown. I don't buy any of the Mike McDaniel coachspeak about Kimani Vidal or Keaton Mitchell having significant roles. I think we see Hampton utilized heavily in this offense, which gets a major upgrade with an improved offensive line and McDaniel's reputation as an elite run-game coordinator.
I'm also content to fade De'Von Achane despite his heavy pass-game involvement and overall usage. He had the fewest goal-line attempts of this group, and I am not sure that number goes up much with Miami projected to struggle this season.
Sure, the volume is going to be there, but unless Malik Willis can move the ball down the field with a group of no-name receivers, defenses are going to load up to stop Achane. Willis is also far more likely to scramble when under pressure than dump it off to Achane, something Tua Tagovailoa did at an insanely high rate.
Najee Harris Games in 2025
- Achane - 0
- Cook, Henry, Brown, Hampton - 3
- Barkley, Jeanty - 5
- Walker - 10
Note: If we remove the "three or fewer receptions" requirement, we get three Achane games with 75 rushing yards and no touchdown.
Tier Three Running Backs
Alright, on to our round three and four running backs, and I am going to do my best to be a bit more brief with my notes.
The Williams brothers (not actually brothers) had nearly identical numbers across the board, and I think both are fine picks in this range given their level of involvement in what should be some very good offenses in Dallas and L.A.
Travis Etienne Jr. jumps out at me as a potential fade here. So much of his production came as a receiver last year, including six receiving touchdowns to lead the group. Will Alvin Kamara kill Etienne's receiving production? I have concerns.
Josh Jacobs had a down year in 2025 and still provided a very high floor with his heavy usage. I wrote him up as a fade in my O-line fallers because I am worried that the Packers may run the ball even less effectively this year, and his age and injuries have to be a concern. There are a lot of miles on those tires.
Breece Hall? Hard pass! He had fewer goal-line carries than Cam Skattebo, who played in half as many games. The Jets will be bad, and I want no part of them, regardless of Hall's receiving ability.
I also took some heat from suggesting that D'Andre Swift may have peaked last year in Chicago. I just have a hard time getting behind him when he's still locked into a timeshare with Kyle Monangai and only had modest production as a receiver.
Can Cam Skattebo stay healthy? He flashes here with the most HVT per game and HVT% and is the type of combination we are looking for with both potential goal-line usage and receiving skills. He's clearly better than Tyrone Tracy Jr., but the injury risk is pretty substantial with the way Skattebo plays.
Did we save the best for last? David Montgomery has nowhere to go but up! His 2.82 HVT per game is the worst in the tier, but it was a product of him being on the short side of the Detroit running back platoon.
Montgomery's 37% snap share was the lowest of his career, and he now finds himself in the mix for 60% or more of the snaps in Houston. He's a battering ram at the goal line and has been a very capable pass-catcher in his career. He stands out to me as likely the best value of the group.
Najee Harris Games in 2025
- Skattebo - 2 (only played 8 games)
- Jacobs, Javonte Williams - 4
- Etienne - 6
- Kyren Williams, Swift - 7
- Hall - 8
- Montgomery - 9
Tier Four Running Backs
Say it with me, "Quinshon Judkins is a fade!" He led the tier in goal-line usage, but is also the only healthy back who faced little competition for touches in this tier, and he still only finished with seven rushing touchdowns. He's a zero in the passing game, where Dylan Sampson is emerging.
TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson BOTH pop here in our high-value touch metrics. I think they'll probably trade big games again this year, and I'm fine drafting either in this range.
We can throw out Tuten's numbers as he played only 21% of the offensive snaps for the Jags last year. I know some view Chris Rodriguez Jr. as a threat to goal-line touches, but even if that's the case, Tuten should absorb all the passing game usage that helped carry Travis Etienne Jr. to the best finish of his career.
What do we do with Bucky Irving? Last year is going to leave such a bad taste in people's mouths, but Bucky is both a hard runner and dynamic receiver. Sean Tucker stealing goal-line touches and Kenny Gainwell eating into passing downs are far from ideal, but the price here is pretty darn cheap for a back who was drafted in the second round last season. The Bucs offense should be better, and I'm intrigued with Irving as a high-risk, high-reward pick in this range.
Let your friends draft Tony Pollard. His usage in Tennessee is very Najee Harris-esque, and he's attached to what should be a mediocre (at best) offense.
Both Steelers backs could be values here, but I also worry they could cancel each other out if it ends up being a true 50-50 split. I think Jaylen Warren's upside is a bit higher if he slides into the Gainwell role from last year.
Our Najee Harris games-per-season totals take a HUGE jump in this tier, and this is the last tier for which I'll calculate them.
Najee Harris Games in 2025
- Dobbins - 2 (only played 10 games)
- Irving - 3 (only played 10 games)
- Warren - 6
- Tuten - 8
- Dowdle - 8
- Stevenson - 8
- Judkins - 9
- Hubbard - 10
- Henderson - 10
- Pollard - 11
- Corum - 12
Tier Five Running Backs
RJ Harvey stands out here as he had a huge role when Dobbins went down, but will he cede goal-line work to Dobbins or Jonah Coleman? Consider that Dobbins had only two "Najee Harris" games as a starter for the first ten games of the season. If Harvey is only a third-down back, then he's likely being drafted too high, as you can get similar players like Dylan Sampson or Alvin Kamara much later.
Gainwell's role was massive in Pittsburgh as Aaron Rodgers and Arthur Smith peppered him with targets. But with Bucky Irving being a solid pass catcher, too, Gainwell won't be the only back getting targets. His 2025 season feels a bit fluky, and I'm not reaching for him ahead of someone like...
Rachaad White! There is real opportunity for White to rack up a ton of receptions in Washington this year and compete with Jacory Croskey-Merritt for early-down work, too.
There is plenty of buzz around Jordan Mason again this year, but I think I'd rather have Aaron Jones over this year if I had to draft a Minnesota back. Jones's passing game chops are substantial, and Mason could easily end up with a bunch of Najee Harris games if Kyler Murray vultures touchdowns inside the red zone.
Can Rodriguez get goal line work in Jax? That's really his only pathway to production, as he had only three receptions last year. I really doubt he ends up being a thing unless Tuten gets hurt.
There are plenty of "Bill" enthusiasts out there who would point to JCM as the one back in this tier who could end up being a three-down back, but I am not buying it.
Oh, and can we stop trying to make Keaton Mitchell a thing?
Tier Six Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr. is a handcuff only; I really don't see him carving out enough of a role behind Robinson in Atlanta. I probably like Tank Bigsby a bit more as a guy who could eat into Barkley's workload and a guy who can provide some value if he gets the mop-up duty in any Philly blowout victories.
Tyjae Spears pops in a big way here with his receiving potential. The same goes for Alvin Kamara and Dylan Sampson, both of whom I already mentioned as excellent receivers who stand to limit the potential of their backfield mates.
Allgeier and Emanuel Wilson have new teams, but similar roles as potential short-yardage backs with very little receiving upside.
Charbonnet stands out in this crowd. His role was incredibly valuable in Seattle last year, but when will we actually see him back on the field? And does he walk back into that big of a role if Jadarian Price is playing well at that point of the season?
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