Starting Pitchers Who Changed Scenes - Projecting Fantasy Baseball Values for Tyler Glasnow, Chris Sale, Sonny Gray

February 12, 2024

Brenton looks at the effects of three fantasy baseball starting pitchers changing teams in the 2024 offseason and explains what it means for their fantasy value in the upcoming season.

We're a mere week or so away from spring training as it's the most important time of the year for fantasy baseball managers.

The MLB offseason isn't exactly flight of foot, but we have still seen some big moves this winter. Numerous high-profile pitchers changed uniforms this offseason, whether it be due to trade or free agency. Often, these moves can have a seismic impact on the respective teams involved but a player can also improve or regress from their current fantasy baseball status in a change of scenery.

Let's dive into three impact starting pitchers who will don a different jersey in the 2024 season and what it means for their respective fantasy baseball values.

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

Tyler Glasnow was not long for the Rays this offseason, not with $25 million in salary due in his final season before hitting free agency. In the end, the frugal Rays did what they always do: recoup value for a pitcher they deem too expensive as they approach free agency.

Of course, the free-spending Dodgers are ready to pounce whenever a big name becomes available. They acquired Glasnow and veteran outfielder Manuel Margot from the Rays in exchange for right hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca. The deal became official once Glasnow signed a contract extension that included four more years and $110 million in guaranteed new money.

While the Rays did well to recoup value (we know they never lose trades), a move to the pitching-needy Dodgers was fitting for Glasnow.

The 30-year-old is rife with injury concern as his 21 starts and 120 innings in another injury-plagued season in 2023 set new career highs. He posted a 3.53 ERA alongside a 25.8% K-BB%, the latter of which ranked second behind only Atlanta's Spencer Strider among pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched a season ago.

K-BB% leaders from ATC projections:

Jacob deGrom
Gerrit Cole
Spencer Strider
Max Scherzer
Carlos Rodon
Corbin Burnes
Shohei Ohtani
Tyler Glasnow

— Michael Simione (@SPStreamer) January 18, 2023

The injury issues in this Dodgers rotation don't solely belong to Glasnow, another reason why he seemingly fits here. Walker Buehler (Tommy John) is currently in a "slow program" and won't be ready for Opening Day. The Dodgers also added the oft-injured James Paxton, largely a southpaw version of Glasnow, and brought back future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, who won't pitch until the second half of the season following November shoulder surgery.

While durability is an issue, Glasnow won't need to go much deeper than five innings a start this year to win ball games. This Dodgers offense has the chance to be historically potent, giving Glasnow a fantastic shot at eclipsing last year's career-high 10 wins.

In fact, ATC projects a career-high 24 starts of 3.47 ERA and 31.4% K% ball from the big righty in 2024, winning 12 games in the process. You have to like those projections in a league chock-full of five-inning starters. Considering he also posted a 2.91 FIP, 3.08 SIERA, and a career-best 51.2% groundball rate last season, it's not hard to envision Glasnow out-pitching his projections on a Dodgers superteam.

Any pitcher is better off on the Dodgers, but when you toss in the run prevention and massive strikeout rates, you can deal with a few fewer starts from Glasnow relative to rival ace-caliber pitchers. His 44.20 ADP is warranted for those willing to take some risk on draft day.

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

From an oft-injured right hander to a recently oft-injured lefty, Chris Sale was also on the move this winter.

The Red Sox saw an opportunity to cash in on Sale despite his injury woes as they dealt him and $17 million in cash to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for promising 23-year-old second baseman Vaughn Grissom. The Red Sox were able to solve their need at the keystone while the Braves netted a high-end arm who was willing to sign a two-year contract extension worth $38 million that includes an $18 million club option for 2026.

Certainly, Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos is betting the risk/reward scenario works in his club's favor. Sale made just 11 starts from 2021-22 due to 2020 Tommy John surgery as well as finger and shoulder injuries. All told, Sale has not pitched more than 158 innings in a season since the 2017 campaign.

He returned from a shoulder injury to toss a 4.30 ERA across 20 starts and 102 2/3 innings in 2023. However, his 3.80 FIP, 3.50 SIERA, and strong 22.6% K-BB%, good for ninth among pitchers with a minimum of 100 pitched, suggest he was far better than his surface ERA reflects. A look under the hood also revealed some strong underlying metrics from the former first-rounder.

*2023 percentile rankings*

His main problem, aside from the subpar barrel rate, was a career-worst 37.3% groundball rate that helped lead to a 1.31 HR/9. He also stranded just 69.9% of his base runners, well below his 76.9% career mark. Regression to the mean in these areas could do wonders for Sale in his first season with the Braves, who will provide more than enough run support for the 34-year-old.

One big positive for the Sale's outlook is a move from the vaunted AL East to a weaker NL East in Atlanta. Four AL East clubs, including the Red Sox, ranked in the top 14 in wOBA last season. Conversely, only one Braves rival ranked in the top 17, the Philadelphia Phillies (sixth). The Blue Jays and Yankees were likely to regress positively at the plate within the AL East in 2023 as well.

Fantasy managers are treading far more cautiously with Sale than they are with Glasnow as Sale owns a 168.68 ADP as the 66th pitcher off the board. RotoBaller is a little more favorable of Sale as the 60th-ranked pitcher. ATC is currently projecting 23 starts of 3.85 ERA ball with a very nice 21.6% K-BB% and more home run issues for Sale in 2024.

While he's carrying a good chunk of risk, Sale's offensive support and strikeout numbers alone are undervaluing his prevailing ADP, even if he misses a few starts in his new digs.

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

The lone free agent to make the list, veteran Sonny Gray was part of the Cardinals' attempt to completely rebuild their pitching staff on the heels of a disastrous 2023 campaign.

The perennial contenders added Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson to their rotation and might not be done yet. Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton were big names added to the bullpen. A potential run at reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell isn't out of the question either.

Gray shifts to his fifth organization after inking a three-year, $70 million deal with St. Louis. He did on the heels of a brilliant 2023 season that saw him work to a tidy 2.79 ERA across a career-high 32 starts. He has seen his strikeout rate dip over the last two seasons, but he still posted a solid 17% K-BB% and allowed homers at only a 0.39 HR/9 clip, by far the best mark in baseball among qualified starters.

While the correlation between starting pitcher wins and offensive support isn't perfectly linear, Gray won just eight games in 32 starts despite the Twins ranking seventh with a .327 wOBA last season, tying for 39th among the 44 qualified starters who made at least 28 starts a season ago. For what it's worth, the Cardinals offense was solid with a .322 wOBA last season, good for 13th league-wide. He should get solid run support again with the Cards.

Simply put, this guy has been one of the more reliable pitchers in baseball throughout his career. Only three times in parts of 11 big-league seasons has he posted an ERA above 3.70. He owns a career 3.47 ERA across 279 outings (270 starts) along with a 15% K/BB%, although he has outproduced that figure in each of his last five campaigns.

As a result, his 124.17 ADP as the 52nd pitcher off the board seems well within reason, even if his 3.95 SIERA and 5.2% HR/FB from 2023 suggest some regression will be had next season. While his Statcast data was a little erratic, although largely in the top half of the league, his run values were mostly insane aside from his changeup, which he only used on 6% of his offerings.

He is a safe and reliable starting pitching option with quality control and a lengthy track record of success. He's not going to be your ace, but Gray is a rock-solid fantasy asset who can compete in the middle or back-half of your fantasy baseball rotation with his new club in 2024.

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