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Welcome to Week 17 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire pitchers. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.
Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help with all of the best streams for the week.
These fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups are for the week of August 1 – August 7, looking at players below ~50% rostered for ESPN, Yahoo!, or Fantrax. Rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, July 30.
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Know Your Scoring System
You know what I'm going to say, right? You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.
For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Trea Turner being a top-five hitter versus a top-25 hitter.
If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.
You'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system if you look above. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes, you can get away with some "close enough" calls, i.e. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.
Week 17: Waiver Wire Leaderboards
All charts are updated before Sunday's games, on stats and ownerships, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version. Players on overall leaderboards are ordered according to their current Roster% on Yahoo.
*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)
The 21-Day Leaderboard, Presented by Hansel
Overall Leaderboards
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Best Choices
George Kirby, SEA (vs LAA) - Kirby has been great in July, posting a 1.65 ERA over three starts and 16.1 IP, while striking out 17. The Angels, as often mentioned, are awful. Los Angeles has the 2nd-worst wOBA and 6th-worst xwOBA since the start of June vs RHP and has had the highest K% against them for the entire year.
Braxton Garrett, MIA (vs CIN, @ CHC) - Garrett got roughed up a little bit in his last start vs CIN, allowing 5 ER over 5 IP. But that 9.00 ERA came with a 1.12 FIP because Braxton had FIP-magic, striking out eight, allowing no home runs, and walking just one batter. He'll get a rematch this week against the Reds but it'll be at the much friendlier confines of Marlins Park but Cincinnati has stayed hot vs LHP in the summer, with the 5th-highest wOBA and 2nd-highest xwOBA against them since the start of June. The Cubs, however, are 20th in wOBA and 21st in xwOBA vs LHP since the start of June and some of their best hitters will likely be former Cubs by the time Garrett comes to town.
James Kaprielian, OAK (@ LAA) - Kaprielian has finally started to turn things around, posting an excellent 1.93 ERA (but less-excellent 4.01 FIP) over his five starts in July. He's got a good chance to keep it going against the Trout-less Angels, who are 29th in wOBA, 25th in xwOBA, and 30th in K% vs RHP since the start of July.
Marco Gonzales, SEA (@ NYY, vs LAA) - If you start Gonzales in New York then you deserve the four home runs that Aaron Judge will likely hit off of him. But a start against the hapless (and Trout-less) Angels is certainly a viable move. LAA is 30th in wOBA and 29th in xwOBA since the start of June vs LHP, and are 28th in K%.
Cole Irvin, OAK (@ LAA) - His stuff isn't overpowering but Irvin keeps getting it done, now with a 3.05 ERA on the season and a 2.08 ERA over the past three weeks. He's got a great chance to keep up the good times in Week 17, facing an offense that's just as bad as his own.
Chris Flexen, SEA (vs LAA) - Flexen has been quietly awesome over five starts in July, running a 1.95 ERA and picking up three Wins. Starting almost anyone is a good idea, let alone someone as hot as he's been.
Reid Detmers, LAA (@ SEA) - Detmers (and his curveball) has been nasty since returning from the minors, with a 1.06 ERA over three starts, with 19 K in 17 IP. The Mariners are 16th in wOBA vs LHP but 25th in K%, making me want to keep riding Detmers' hot hand.
Dean Kremer, BAL (vs PIT) - Kremer has gotten slapped over his past two starts, allowing a total of 10 ER in losses to the Mets and Reds. But a matchup against the Pirates is just what an imaginary doctor would order, as the Pirates are 29th in xwOBA and K% since the start of June.
Aaron Ashby, MIL (vs CIN) - We finally saw the return of the good Ashby for the first time since he missed some time with forearm irritation, as he dominated Colorado for 7 IP, allowing 2 ER and striking out nine batters. But Cincinnati isn't Colorado and has a top-five wOBA vs RHP since the start of June.
Mitch Keller, PIT (@ BAL) - Baltimore has been average vs RHP but it looks like I'm going to have to retire my library of jokes because Keller has simply been a totally different pitcher since dramatically increasing his sinker usage:
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Next Choices
Keegan Thompson, CHC (@ STL, vs MIA) - Thompson bounced back against the Pirates after getting roughed up by the Mets (4.1 IP - 5 ER - 1 K), allowing 0 ER (2 R) over seven innings, striking out seven batters and picking up the Win. The Cardinals have been a top-10 offense vs RHP all season but the Marlins...haven't. Since the start of June, Miami is 24th in wOBA, 21st in xwOBA, and 20th in K% vs RHP.
Spenser Watkins, BAL (@ TEX, vs PIT) - Watkins wasn't terrible in his last start vs Tampa Bay but gave up way too many hits (10) and ultimately allowed 3 ER over 5.1 IP in a no-decision. The Texas offense has improved over the summer but are still just 17th in wOBA and 16th in xwOBA vs RHP since the start of June, while Pittsburgh is still Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 28th in wOBA, 27th in xwOBA, and 29th in K% vs RHP for the season.
German Marquez, COL (@ ARI) - Marquez has a 2.29 ERA over his last three starts (including two at Coors) and gets a rematch with an Arizona offense that he faced on July 10, picking up the Win after allowing 2 ER over 7 IP.
Nick Lodolo, CIN (@ MIL) - The rookie just dominated an overmatched Marlins offense (6 IP - o ER - 9 K) but a matchup on the road with Milwaukee shouldn't be as easy. However, the Brewers aren't nearly as scary vs LHP, with a wOBA, xwOBA, and K% against them that are all in the bottom five.
Josiah Gray, WSH (@ PHI) - Gray has two rotten starts in July (6 ER vs MIA, 5 ER vs SEA) but things were a lot better when he went on the road against Philadelphia on July 6, striking out 11 batters in 6 IP and allowing 2 ER. He'll get a chance to do it again in Week 17.
Adrian Sampson, CHC (vs MIA) - Since allowing 4 ER over 5.1 IP to the Red Sox on July 1, Sampson has a 3.09 ERA over four starts, most recently allowing 2 ER over 7 IP in a no-decision vs the Pirates. Miami might be a tougher test but only just barely (#BecauseMiami).
Janson Junk, LAA (vs OAK) - Junk looked like an all-star vs the lowly Royals in his first start of the year, striking out eight batters over five shutout innings, allowing four hits and walking one. The competition is somehow worse for this matchup with Oakland, who is 29th in wOBA and 30th in xwOBA vs RHP in 2022.
Paul Blackburn, OAK (vs SF) - Blackburn had absolutely gone off the rails recently, allowing a total of 21 ER over three starts in July. But he got back going against the White Sox in his last turn, striking out four batters over five shutout innings. The Giants aren't super scary on paper, as they are 25th in wOBA and 24th in xwOBA vs RHP since the start of June. Counterpoint: Blackburn might get traded and never actually make this start.
Yusei Kikuchi, TOR (@ TB) - Kikuchi turned things around in his last start against Detroit (5 IP - 1 ER - 5 K) after getting slapped around by Oakland for 4 ER in just 2.1 IP. He gets a rematch with a mediocre Tampa Bay offense that he dominated on June 30, striking out eight over six innings, allowing 1 ER while picking up the Win.
JT Brubaker, PIT (@ BAL) - Brubaker has been pretty good in July (2.50 ERA over 18 IP, 19 K) and has a solid matchup with a Baltimore offense that is 19th in wOBA and 15th in K% vs RHP. But also, it's the Pirates so good luck getting a Win bonus.
Madison Bumgarner, ARI (@ CLE) - Most LHP are viable against Cleveland and Bumgarner is no exception. The Guardians are 29th in wOBA and 30th in xwOBA vs LHP.
Cal Quantrill, CLE (vs ARI, vs HOU) - Don't start Quantrill against the Astros but Arizona has struggled even more lately vs RHP, with the 6th-lowest wOBA against them since the start of June.
Ross Stripling, TOR (@ MIN) - Stripling has been good but this might be a good idea to look elsewhere, as the Minnesota offense has been top-five vs RHP all season
Brady Singer, KC (@ CHW, vs BOS) - Raise your hand if you thought it was a good idea to start Singer last week in a matchup on the road against the red-hot Yankees...Liars! And yet it was a good idea, with Singer pitching seven shutout inning and striking out 10 batters in a no-decision (because, the Royals). Both of the Sox are middling vs RHP but hey, they're not as good as the Yankees, so obviously you should run out Singer for this two-step, right? Nothing bad ever happens when starting Royals, right???
Drew Smyly, CHC (vs MIA) - Feeling adventurous? Smyly has a 4.42 ERA and two of his four starts since returning from the IL have been pretty good, allowing a total of 2 ER over 10.1 IP in starts against Philadelphia and the Mets. In the other two (vs LAD and SF) were...not as great, allowing 9 ER over 6 IP. But Miami is also, not as great, and is last in wOBA and second-last in xwOBA vs LHP, with the highest K% in baseball.
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Desperate Choices
Alex Cobb, SF (vs LAD) - Cobb's stuff has been better than his results and he's coming off of his best start of the season, striking out 11 batters over six innings against the Cubs, allowing just 1 ER but still picking up the loss. But the Dodgers are arguably baseball's best offense vs RHP and knocked up Cobb for 4 ER in 5.2 IP back on July 24.
Jose Quintana, PIT (vs MIL) - Feeling really adventurous? This is the remix. The crafty lefty probably won't get a Win bonus (because the Pirates) but Quintana has a 3.50 ERA over his past four starts and Milwaukee has been a bottom-five offense vs LHP, with a bottom-five K%.
Kris Bubic, KC (@ CHW) - Bubic has a 25 APR and 2.81 ERA over the past three weeks but takes on a White Sox team that is 2nd in wOBA and 8th in xwOBA vs LHP in 2022.
Mike Minor, CIN (@ MIA) - Minor (almost, wink) turned in a quality start in his last time out, allowing 2 ER over 5.1 IP, striking out four batters in a no-decision vs BAL. But while he's still not a quality pitcher, a lefty matchup against the Marlins is almost always on the table. Miami is last in wOBA and second-last in xwOBA vs LHP, with the highest K% against them in baseball.
Dane Dunning, TEX (vs CHW) - The ceiling is always limited but sometimes a middling pitcher vs a middling offense is the best thing available.
Hunter Greene, CIN (@ MIA, @ MIL) - Greene continues to have unsightly ratios (5.93 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) with the big-time K's but has put up a 3.21 FIP over the past three weeks that is shinier than the 4.76 ERA over the same period. A start in Milwaukee sounds like a possible homer-fest but streams against Miami are generally a good idea. The Marlins (who might have a much worse offense soon) are 27th in wOBA and 20th in K% vs RHP since the start of June.
Chris Archer, MIN (vs DET, vs TOR) - You're a maniac if you run out Archer vs TOR but starts against Detroit are always playable. The Tigers are 30th in wOBA, 29th in xwOBA, and 24th in K% vs RHP.
Josh Winckowski, BOS (@ KC) - The rookie has gotten roughed up in two of his last three starts but Kansas City's bad offense will likely get made that much worse by the time the trade deadline passes.
Spencer Howard, TEX (vs BAL, vs CHW) - Howard has been much better since his return to the rotation but is still very inconsistent, allowing 2 ER or less in three of his five starts and 4 ER in the other two. He most recently locked up a bad Angels team for five shutout inning, striking out five and allowing three hits and zero walks. Baltimore and the White Sox have been league-average vs RHP all season but Chicago is especially stingy with strikeouts, with the 3rd-lowest K% for the year.
Rich Hill, BOS (@ HOU, @ KC) - Obviously, you don't want to start Hill against Houston in his first start back from the IL (sprained knee) but depending on how he looks, a stream against Kansas City is usually viable for most starters with a heartbeat. But be aware that the Royals have been better vs LHP than RHP, with the ninth-highest wOBA and 5th-lowest K% against them since the start of June. However, we don't even know what that lineup (which is now missing Andrew Benetendi) will look like by the end of the week, so the matchup could certainly improve.
Jesus Luzardo, MIA (vs CIN) - Luzardo showed flashes of his former excellence prior to going on the IL (forearm irritation) and will make his return against a Reds offense that has the 5th-highest wOBA vs LHP since the start of June but only the 22nd-best xwOBA.
Jakob Junis, SF (vs LAD) - I love me some Junis but much like Cobb, I'm not rushing to trust him in a start against the Dodgers.
David Peterson, NYM (vs ATL) - Peterson has a 3.54 ERA on the season but Atlanta crushes LHP - the Braves have the 2nd-highest wOBA and 5th-highest xwOBA against them in 2022
Brad Keller, KC (@ CHW, vs BOS) - Keller is occasionally serviceable but the White Sox are 14th in wOBA since the start of June (26th for the season) and have the 6th-lowest K% (3rd for the season). And Boston's been a mess but is still a league-average offense - at least, I think they still can be against pitchers of Keller's caliber.
Graham Ashcraft, CIN (@ MIA) - Sure, you can run out Ashcraft for his second start in a row against Miami but you're getting a best-case scenario of what he turned in last time: 6.2 IP - 3 ER - 6 K.
Devin Smeltzer, MIN (vs DET, vs TOR) - Like with Archer, you're nuts to start Smeltzer vs TOR but unlike Archer, a start against Detroit isn't quite as juicy. The Tigers are much better vs LHP and have the 8th-highest wOBA and 7th-highest xwOBA against them since the start of June.
Antonio Senzatela/Jose Urena, COL (@ SD, @ ARI) - Sure, you could start either of these Colorado two-steppers on the road but do you really want to start > 4.50 ERAs against a Padres team that is 8th in wOBA and 9th in xwOBA since the start of June and an Arizona team that is - ok, well, you got me there. Arizona isn't very good (and will probably get worse by the trade deadline) but does have the 5th-lowest K% vs RHP since the start of June, at least.
Relief Pitchers Waiver Wire
Unless you're in a very deep league and/or have a lot of dedicated RP-only slots, most of the relievers you're going to want are the ones who are closers, have a chance to close, or are elite setup guys. I do mean elite because most scoring structures are weighted in a way that relievers almost necessarily have to get saves to be valuable. Although, long relievers whose usage you can reliably predict, can be useful in leagues with daily moves. For a majority of leagues, sticking to closers is the way to go.
With that in mind, here are the best relievers on the wire for Week 17, ordered by Yahoo roster%:
Closers (and co-Closers) on the Wire
Alexis Diaz/Hunter Strickland(?), CIN - Diaz has had the job by himself for a while now and currently has a top-50 APR. That is until Hunter Strickland got two Save chances last week (saving one and blowing one), while Diaz grabbed the Hold for both.
Tanner Scott, MIA - Scott, who has a 19 APR for the season and a 52 APR over the past three weeks, picked up two more Saves this week but the specter of a soon-to-return Anthony Bender, continues to loom over his job security.
Kyle Finnegan, WSH - It's Finnegan's job until he gets traded and he picked up one Save on Saturday.
Lou Trivino/A.J. Puk, OAK - Trivino is still the main guy in Oakland, picking up two Save this past week but remember that he's almost guaranteed to get shipped out by the trade deadline. It's easy to think the job will go to Puk, who picked up a Save on Wednesday, but Dany Jimenez (and his 11 Saves) is currently on a rehab assignment.
Luis Garcia/Nabil Crismatt/Adrian Morejon/Nick Martinez, SD - Taylor Rodgers is apparently getting a "little bit of a break" from closing according to Bob Melvin, with the listed quadruple set to share duties. This isn't a situation worth trying to leverage.
Committees on the Wire
Tampa Bay Rays - It's the normal shenanigans in Tampa but it was Pete Fairbanks that actually converted his two chances last week, with Colin Poche blowing two.
Texas Rangers - Brett Martin threw things back to a committee by blowing two Saves this week, with Matt Moore converting his only opportunity.
Random Save Chances O' the Week
Felix Bautista, BAL - Got a Save on Thursday
John Schreiber, BOS - Blew a Save on Wednesday
Mychal Givens, CHC - Got a Save on Tuesday
Scott Effross, CHC - Got a Save on Monday
Kendall Graveman, CHW - Blew a Save on Wednesday
Lucas Gilbreath, COL - Blew a Save on Wednesday
Jose Alvarado, PHI - Blew a Save on Saturday
Connor Brogdon, PHI - Got a Save on Friday
Wil Crowe, PIT - Blew a Save on Friday
Matthew Festa, SEA - Got a Save on Wednesday, Blew a Save on Saturday
Erik Swanson, SEA - Got a Save on Monday
Genesis Cabrera, STL - Blew a Save on Saturday
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