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5 fantasy baseball bust candidates and avoids for H2H points leagues in 2025. Fade these pitchers in points leagues: Jacob deGrom, Max Fried, Seth Lugo and more.
We are in the heart of fantasy baseball draft season now, which means it's time to start researching for your leagues. Although everyone is most excited about the first two rounds of drafts, it's the middle rounds that could make or break your season. Selecting a player who could bust in the middle rounds will hurt.
In this article, we will go through five pitchers fantasy managers should be avoiding in points leagues this year. These pitchers are simply going too early in drafts and are too much of a risk at their current ADP. These players have bust potential written all over them entering the 2025 fantasy season.
So, who are the five pitchers to avoid in points leagues this year? Let's dive in and find out.
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Emmanuel Clase, RP, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 49.7
Cleveland Guardians pitcher Emmanuel Clase was the best closer in baseball last season. He had 47 saves for the Guardians behind a 0.61 ERA and 66 strikeouts across 74 appearances. He also blew just three saves all year. However, fantasy managers should not be spending a top-50 or even a top-60 pick on a relief pitcher in points leagues.
There are far too many elite players still going at this point in drafts, making Clase an avoid in this type of format. At his current 49.7 ADP, fantasy managers would choose to pass on players like James Wood (51 ADP), Ozzie Albies (49.7 ADP), and Marcell Ozuna (52.3 ADP). All three of those players are better picks in points leagues.
Emmanuel Clase Abusing hitters with his Painted Inside Cutters. ✂️
It's like he sees the lines of the strike zone. pic.twitter.com/SwgEQc4QSf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) December 7, 2024
On top of that, Clase's low strikeout rate is concerning. Strikeouts are very important in points leagues, considering fantasy managers get double the points in some leagues. Last year, the flamethrowing right-hander had just a 27.1 percent whiff rate and a 24.4 percent strikeout rate. Although his strikeout rate was up from the 2023 season (21.2 percent), his low strikeout numbers make him an unappealing option in the fourth round of drafts.
Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers
ADP: 56.3
When healthy, Texas Rangers starter Jacob deGrom is one of the best pitchers in the majors. He is a two-time National League Cy Young Award winner and has a career 2.52 ERA across 11 seasons. However, deGrom has not been able to stay healthy in recent years. The right-hander has thrown just 105 1/3 innings across the past three seasons. That's certainly not great news for his fantasy value in 2025.
He has missed significant time in four straight years and hasn't thrown above 95 innings in a season since 2019. In 2024, the 36-year-old threw just 10 2/3 innings as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. Despite all that, though, deGrom finds himself going in the fourth or fifth round in most leagues. That's way too high for a pitcher who has dealt with a ton of injuries recently.
Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said the team will slow play Jacob deGrom's workload in order to get the most starts out of him at the end of the season.
"If we have to skip a start or put him on the IL to keep him fresh, we'll do that." pic.twitter.com/lljzLfbcTi
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) March 12, 2025
As a result, deGrom is a pretty clear avoid at his 56.3 ADP. Sometimes, the best fantasy players are the ones who manage to stay healthy, and that hasn't been the case for the right-hander in recent years. If he does stay healthy, he could be one of the bigger value picks in drafts because he is that good on the mound. But he's just too much of a risk this early in drafts, given his recent injury history.
Max Fried, SP, New York Yankees
ADP: 86.7
With the season-ending injury to Gerrit Cole (elbow), the New York Yankees will rely on starter Max Fried even more this season. Fried signed a massive eight-year, $218 million deal this offseason, and they're hoping he's worth every penny of that contract. However, from a fantasy perspective, he is an avoid in points leagues at his 86.7 ADP.
Although Fried has been able to finish with a relatively low ERA in each of his eight MLB seasons, his poor strikeout numbers and iffy walk rate from last season are reasons of concern for the left-hander. He only struck out 166 batters across 174 1/3 innings pitched last season, and his 57 walks were a career-high. In addition, having a career 23.9 percent strikeout rate is not a great sign for his fantasy value in points leagues.
Racking up strikeouts is huge in points leagues, hence why Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal are going so high in drafts. Fried is just not that high-strikeout pitcher, which could hurt his fantasy value in 2025. The southpaw has also made fewer than 30 starts in three of the past four seasons. There are just better pitchers to target around this spot in fantasy drafts.
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 95
There's no doubt that Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow has the talent to be a top fantasy pitcher in 2025. He is coming off a season where he finished with a 3.49 ERA and a 32.2 percent strikeout rate. That 32.2 percent strikeout rate ranked in the 95th percentile among all pitchers last year. However, it's tough to take a pitcher in the top 100 who has never stayed healthy in his career.
Glasnow has never thrown more than 134 innings in a season, and his 22 starts in 2024 were the most of his career. Therefore, it's fair to assume the right-hander will make a trip to the injured list at some point this year. Since 2021, the 31-year-old has pitched in only 59 games. To put that into context, Giants pitcher Logan Webb has made 124 starts during that same span. I'd prefer Webb over him at this spot.
Tyler Glasnow, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/k995am7CR4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 2, 2025
That's why Glasnow is an avoid at his 95 ADP in drafts. He hasn't been able to stay healthy, and that might not change this season. The Dodgers have also talked about possibly having a six-man rotation once Shohei Ohtani (elbow) is cleared. Pitching every six games would lower his fantasy value even more.
Seth Lugo, SP, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 146.7
From 2018 to 2022, pitcher Seth Lugo saw most of his opportunities out of the bullpen. However, the San Diego Padres converted Lugo to a full-time starter before the 2023 season.
In that campaign, the right-hander had a 3.57 ERA and 140 strikeouts across 26 starts. The veteran then followed up those numbers by finishing with a 3.00 ERA and 181 strikeouts in 206 2/3 innings pitched with the Kansas City Royals in 2024.
As a result, Lugo has some appeal in the middle-to-late rounds of drafts. He was excellent on the mound last season and became a high-floor fantasy option throughout the year. Nevertheless, the Royals pitcher should be a pass for most fantasy managers in points leagues at his 146.7 ADP.
Both his strikeout rate (21.7 percent) and expected batting average against (.243) ranked extremely poor last season, and the veteran burned out as the year went on.
Lugo had a 4.15 ERA and just 71 strikeouts across his final 14 starts of 2024. Given the fact that he is also entering his age-35 season, it's hard to justify taking him over other pitchers like Kevin Gausman (147.7), Yusei Kikuchi (153.7), and Ryan Pepiot (172 ADP) in drafts.
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