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Normally, I would begin this annual column by saying how grateful I am for the opportunity to be able to take up space on a major website like RotoBaller with my predictions for the upcoming season and follow with the number of years running I've done this. Truth is, I don't remember. Not that it's been decades since I've been doing this, but with the way baseball has gone the last couple of years, I'm not sure if I even make bold predictions the last two years.
As 2022 began, it was looking like a bold call just to say that we'd even have a full MLB season. It appears we will and a few wrinkles have been thrown in to upset the traditionalists, including the long-coveted universal DH. I am looking forward to this season more than I have any baseball season in a long time, so whatever happens in reality or fantasy, I'm just glad to be able to watch it unfold.
I'll be here all season long to dish out advice, rankings, and more. Before that takes place, let's go to the extreme and make some bold predictions that I may or may not have a vested interest in.
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Jazz Chisholm Jr. Goes 30/30
Let's just get this year's hometown pick out the way first since it's also one of the more likely predictions to come true. ATC Projections, the most accurate in the industry, forecasts Chisholm to hit 21 homers and steal 23 bases with a .240 batting average. He hit .248 last year with a .238 xBA, so that seems perfectly reasonable.
Chisholm can stand to improve his plate discipline a bit, which I believe he will. I'm not expecting a .300 average or anything but if he can get his OBP over .320 while hitting leadoff, he's going to be a roto-league champ and surpass those HR/SB projections. If nothing else, drafting him gets you an automatic dub in the swag category.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has an ice cream glove
(via @AriaGloves) pic.twitter.com/EQWUPquQP8
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) March 22, 2022
Dinelson Lamet is a Top-10 Closer
That's right, closer. Look, we know he's a hard thrower with lingering injury concerns who can't stay healthy. He fits the bill to a tee. Lamet only threw 47 innings last year and would be best served coming out of the bullpen.
Then there's the fact that San Diego's current closer is... Pierce Johnson? Emilio Pagan?
Here's new manager Bob Melvin's answer to the question of whether the Padres' closer in 2022 is already on the roster:
We’ll have to see once these guys get here. There are some really talented guys who throw hard and strike people out. Lamet is one of those guys.
Earlier in the same interview, Melvin hinted at Lamet's potential usage saying, "I feel like he has the potential to be a wipeout reliever in a one-time around or maybe a late-inning option."
Yup, he's going to be the closer. As someone with a career 30.9% K% on a team that should be competitive enough to win a fair amount of close games, I can see Lamet earning upwards of 25 saves. Crazy thing is that he's an afterthought in fantasy drafts while everyone assumes Camilo Doval is a shoo-in to do the same because he filled in as closer for the final week of last season.
CJ Abrams is NL Rookie of the Year
Let's start by saying you can count me as one of the many who predict big things for Pittsburgh's 6'7" shortstop, Oneil Cruz. He's currently the favorite to win NL ROY according to Vegas odds at +300. I've drafted him wherever I can get him and do not think he's being overhyped simply because of his physical prowess. But I'm going out on a limb to pick Abrams (+1800, 10th-best odds) instead.
Abrams was the sixth overall pick in 2019 and a top-10 prospect entering this season. The pedigree is there and now, so is the opportunity. Fernando Tatis Jr. will be out for several weeks, they lost Tommy Pham to free agency, and the team is intent on moving the contracts of Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, if possible. They had a surprisingly quiet offseason, missing out on all the big names. If they want to improve their lineup, the best scenario would be from within as Abrams would instantly become one of their most talented position players behind Tatis and Manny Machado.
We don't have much in the way of minor-league numbers to point to when determining his Major League value. Abrams suffered a broken leg last year in a collision at second base, limiting his playing time. This, of course, came after missing out on the 2020 minor league season that didn't exist. He looked sharp in his time at Double-A, however, and is off to a good spring. Abrams is a natural leadoff hitter, with a 70-grade hit tool and 80-grade speed. Once he settles into that Padres lineup, preferably with Tatis hitting behind him, there is no limit to what he can do.
Jo Adell is a top-20 OF
As of this writing, Adell is off to a great start in spring with a .273 average, three HR, seven RBI, and three SB in his first 22 at-bats. Most of us, other than FSWA award winner and fellow Trinity alum Eric Samulski know better than to overreact to spring training. My bullish outlook on Adell is based on more than a few exhibition games, though.
It's no secret he came up as the top prospect in the Angels organization and has that tantalizing power/speed combo every MLB scout and fantasy manager dreams of. In his 2020 debut, he simply couldn't get wood on the ball though. He struck out a whopping 41.6% of the time and hit .161 over his first 124 Major League at-bats. In 2021, he took a huge leap by cutting down to a 22.9% K% and hitting .246. He didn't make any major overhaul to his approach but there is less movement in his swing with nary a leg kick to be noticed.
A consistent approach to the plate and another step forward in contact rate could make for a massive leap in fantasy value if he fully unlocks his massive raw power. Bear in mind, he will turn 23 years old just as the Angels are wrapping up their Opening Day matchup. He's always had the ability to be a star, he just needed a little experience.
Over the batter's eye! 😱
Jo Adell is rolling in the deep. pic.twitter.com/xFVDjc7gaE
— MLB (@MLB) March 22, 2022
Jack Flaherty Flat-Out Busts
It's already begun, as Flaherty will miss the start of the season with shoulder bursitis. He's received PRP injections and will have to rehab before getting into game action. What's more concerning is the news that he's been pitching through a superior labrum anterior posterior tear (a.k.a. SLAP) for years. If you see red flags waving wildly, it's not just Cardinal fans rooting for their team. Flaherty was limited to 78 1/3 innings last year and can't be counted on for anything close to his 2019 workload in the current season.
Flaherty is a talented arm but he may also be overvalued even when healthy. He was the biggest overachiever on expected batting average among all pitchers with at least 50 PA, posting a .199 BAA compared to a .245 xBA and the second-highest overachiever on expected slugging last year, posting a .364 SLG compared to a .457 xSLG. The impending regression, injuries, and uncertain role upon returning make him someone to avoid even as his ADP falls outside the top-100 overall.
Tampa Bay Posts a Bottom-10 Team ERA
This may be the boldest take I've laid down for baseball yet. I'm not just picking a player to produce a specific outcome, I've betting against a whole staff with a strong recent history of excellence.
| Year | Team ERA | MLB Rank | Team WHIP | MLB Rank |
| 2021 | 3.67 | 4 | 1.17 | 3 |
| 2020 | 3.56 | 3 | 1.22 | 5 |
| 2019 | 3.67 | 3 | 1.17 | 3 |
| 2018 | 3.75 | 6 | 1.20 | 3 |
| 2017 | 3.99 | 8 | 1.26 | 6 |
It's well-known that Tampa just knows how to get the most of their pitching staff. They limit innings, mix and match frequently, and prefer experience over youth. The Tropicana Dome does them some favors too by stifling power.
So, why the sudden pessimism? At some point, reality will catch up to them. The fact is that this is far from the most talented pitching staff in baseball. The Rays will be without their best starter (Tyler Glasnow) and top reliever (Diego Castillo) from last year. Shane Baz is undergoing elbow surgery and has an unknown return date. Nick Anderson will probably miss another whole season.
That wouldn't matter if I had full confidence in the remaining pieces but obviously I don't. This isn't really about Shane McClanahan although he did overachieve quite a bit on his xSLG and xBA last year. Luis Patino is experiencing shoulder discomfort and will have his innings capped. Corey Kluber is 36 and while he was adequate for the Yankees, he posted a career-high walk rate that keeps inflating. Ryan Yarbrough and Josh Fleming both posted ERAs over 5.00 last season. And let's be honest, their bullpen is basically a bunch of guys that they manage to get the most out of.
The sticky stuff ban did affect certain pitchers and clubs. While there's no way to prove the pitchers on Tampa, other than Tyler Glasnow, were using it, their post-ban team ERA did drop from 3.39 to 3.90 during the season.
Tampa has run through the AL East gauntlet year after year, so I can't point to that as a huge concern but they also have several series against AL West teams that could give their pitchers trouble like the Astros, Mariners, and Angels. It only takes a few blowups to sink those ratios, as every roto-league fantasy manager knows all too well. As much as the Rays have been overachieving recently, I get the feeling this is the year that the pendulum swings.
Dominic Smith Bounces Back Big
It's cool to hate on the Mets, so I get ignoring guys like Smith who tanked last year. Maybe the success he had in a shortened 2020 was one of those outliers. It certainly looks like a tease in an otherwise disappointing MLB resume. Those who thought he might enjoy a full-fledged breakout last year (guilty as charged) were left with a .244/11/58/43/2 roto line and a mostly wasted mid-round pick. Why should we be optimistic now that more competition has been brought in?
If we had nothing else to point to, I'd say it was just wishful thinking that Smith simply does better this year. But it was recently revealed that he played through a shoulder injury all season long and didn't disclose it.
“If you guys watch video, my whole career I would finish with one arm,” he said. “But last year you would see after the first month, I started finishing with two arms. That was because I had the [subluxation] in my shoulder."
Aside from his struggles last year, another reason fantasy managers aren't hot to trot on drafting Smith is the argument that he has no clear path to playing time. Of course, if he hits as he did in 2020, that will take care of itself. The Mets have a few trade candidates on their roster including J.D. Davis, Jeff McNeil, and Smith himself. If nothing shakes out there, he could simply beat out Robinson Cano at DH because we don't know what the 39-year-old will look like after a year off. Finally, injuries always happen, especially to the Mets.
There is a multitude of potential paths to regular at-bats for Smith. If he continues his hot spring, we could see him in the Opening Day lineup over Cano and he could pay back his nearly non-existent draft cost in a big way.
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