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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/30/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Jac Caglianone, Miguel Vargas, and others!
Welcome Back, RotoBallers! Last night was quite the dud; I whiffed on all my picks, and Canning didn't end up starting the game, which killed my Mickey Moniak play. We have 10 games on the slate for us today, and hopefully we get a good shot to rebound massively!
I have four spots on deck for y'all today. We have some elite matchups to dig into, but if you are looking for some more options or other bets, make sure you also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, July 30, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/30/2026)
Jac Caglianone OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300, Hard Rock)
Jac Caglianone has struggled since the Home Run Derby. He has only one game with a home run since then and is on a six-game hitless streak. Just about any other guy on the mound, and I probably don't entertain this play, but Bailey Ober has been pretty awful once again this season, and the righty has had an issue with giving up home runs to lefties this season.
Even with Caglianone struggling at the plate, he is still hitting the ball hard, even if they are producing anything. In the last five games, he has an average exit velocity of 95.5 mph, which leads the team. He has hit the ball harder than most players in the entire league, with an ISO of .202, a Barrel% of 21.3%, and a 58.6 HardHit%.
On the other side of things, Ober has given up eight of his 13 home runs in his last six starts. 10 of his 13 home runs have come against lefties this season, and no lefty is hitting righties harder than Cags. The best part about all of this is the pitch mix lines up perfectly; the two worst pitches by Ober are also his most thrown, as well as Caglianone's best to hit. The four-seamer and changeup have been solid for Caglianone.
I'm expecting Jac to break his slump big time here against Bailey Ober.
Miguel Vargas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+375, Hard Rock)
It is about time for Vargas to get back on track after a fantastic first half of the season, and this might be the perfect opportunity for him to do so. The righty has consistently dominated lefties all season long; he leads the team in multiple categories, including a .967 OPS, .293 ISO, 18.8% Barrel%, and a 58.3% HardHit% that only sits behind Munetaka Murakami.
Lucky for us, we get a home run-prone lefty in Ryan Weathers, who has struggled against righties all season long. 14 of his 17 home runs have come against righties this season, and they are sporting a .421 SLG, .176 ISO, 13.4% Barrel%, and a 42% HardHit%.
Miguel Vargas is on pace for 34 home runs this season.
Season Stats:
22 HR
63 RBI
11 SB
.242 AVG | .348 OBP | .832 OPSPace: 34 HR / 98 RBI / 17 SB#WhiteSox pic.twitter.com/b4N9GzPjNk
— PaceBall (@paceball__) July 27, 2026
Vargas is also leading the team in average exit velocity against lefties in the last 10 games with 97.4 mph, which is 3.7 mph faster than his season average. The big thing Vargas has been missing is the FlyBall part of things; lucky for us, Weathers has a 17% HR/FB% against righties this season. If Vargas can get one up in the air, this could be going over the fence, with how hard he has been hitting the ball.
