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Tommy A evaluates the fantasy football value of Cleveland Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. in 2021 to explain why the veteran wide receiver can have a comeback player of the year-type of season in 2021.
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. exploded onto the scene as a rookie in the 2014 season as a member of the New York Giants. Injuries and inconsistent play since the 2017 campaign have led to some frustrated OBJ fantasy owners over the past few years.
Beckham is coming off a torn ACL that resulted in him playing in just six full games this past season. Name value can likely drive his price up, but as of now, the Browns wide receiver has an average draft position (ADP) around pick 70.
Although he's being drafted more like a WR3, there are plenty of reasons to think he could approach his previous level of production in 2019 and be a reliable WR2.
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The Talent Is Still There
In 2019, Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield and Beckham played their first season together in what was a disastrous year for both of them, relative to the high expectations that were placed on the two players. Beckham played most of the season injured and still finished with 1,035 receiving yards along with four touchdown receptions.
In the 2020 season, Beckham showed some flashes of his old self when he caught a 43-yard touchdown pass from Baker Mayfield against the Cincinnati Bengals, followed by a game in which he went nuclear against the Cowboys, scoring three total touchdowns with 154 scrimmage yards. Unfortunately, these were the lone bright spots of his 2020 campaign. With inconsistent play in the other weeks in which he was active, Beckham was an extremely frustrating player to own. At times it seemed the two were on a different page, leading many to suggest the offense is better without Beckham on the field.
Going into his third season with the best version of Baker Mayfield we have seen, and second-year under head coach Kevin Stefanski, Beckham will be the primary option in the Cleveland passing game. Cleveland likes to establish the run which led to them ranking #29 in team pass plays per game (32.9) last season. As Mayfield became more comfortable in the offense, this number increased to 36.8 in the final six games. The Cleveland offense must be efficient to offset the lack of volume. Considering the highest-ranked pass-blocking offensive line from 2020 is returning this season, Mayfield should have an easier time being efficient in the passing game.
Baker Mayfield: Odell Beckham Jr. feels even better than he looks. https://t.co/lUZfnm0Ou4
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) July 21, 2021
Efficiency And Opportunity
Per PlayerProfiler, Beckham’s catchable target rate was just 68% (30/44) on his targets in 2020. It is a safe bet that this number will be greatly improved as Mayfield and Beckham keep building their chemistry. Mayfield has shown he has the ability to be an efficient passer, as he finished eighth in play-action completion percentage at 69.5% last season. This is significant because of the heavy play-action scheme that the Browns like to run, and their tendency to get Beckham the ball off of play-action.
Over a full season, Beckham and Mayfield will have plenty of opportunities to connect on deep passes. Mayfield completed 46.6% of his deep targets last year, which was good for sixth among quarterbacks. He attempted 58 deep passes, good for 14th among quarterbacks. So, the volume and efficiency is there to support an increase in deep pass attempts. Beckham had nine deep targets in his six full games, which is a pace of 24 deep targets over a 16-game season. To put this in perspective, Tyreek Hill had 32 deep targets last season. Beckham also had a relatively high average depth of target (aDOT) of 13.5, meaning that with a modest increase in the efficiency of these targets, Beckham should easily be closer to his career receiving yard average of 83.3 this season.
Check out where Odell Beckham ranked among WRs before tearing his ACL in Week 7:
25.0% TGT% (10th)
33.3% RZ TGT% (4th)
13.5 average depth of TGT (10th)
37.71% Air-Yard share (9th)Baker Mayfield averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game in his last six.
OBJ bounce-back coming.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 21, 2021
Positive Touchdown Regression in 2021
Through six full games last year Beckham saw six red-zone targets (inside the 20-yard line), which are very valuable to fantasy managers. This would have tied him for seventh among wide receivers over a 16-game pace with him being on pace for 16 red-zone targets. The only wide receivers with more than 16 red-zone targets in 2020 were Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Tyreek Hill, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Only Allen Robinson finished outside the top-10 in receiving touchdowns with six.
Considering Beckham’s aDOT and his ability to make plays with the ball in his hand, being targeted near the end-zone will give him plenty of opportunities to score touchdowns in 2021. There is an opportunity for Beckham to score close to double-digit touchdowns over an entire season.
ADP Outlook
When healthy, Beckham is one of the league’s most dynamic players and his talent should never come into question. Relative to his ADP, he comes with little risk which simply hasn't been the case in the past. For the first time in his career, Beckham is being drafted as a value, and can easily finish in the top-24 wide receivers with a solidified role as Cleveland’s number one wideout. The 28-year-old offers even more value in non-PPR leagues and can be drafted with confidence in all formats.
Beckham will have to find some more consistent play, but when healthy for a full season he is a lock for 1,000 receiving yards. When healthy, Beckham has never failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards.
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