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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 6/3/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
With a stacked slate of 15 games tonight, we resume our NRFI series with another article chalked full of top-notch NRFI bets. I have five spots we can attack with NRFI wagers tonight!
There were even a few bets I left off the list today because of the odds or because I didn't like one factor that I usually consider for each bet. So if you're surprised not to see a pitchers' duel between Hunter Greene and Freddy Peralta on the list today, just know that there's a good reason. In that instance, it had to do with a very hot Cincinnati offense and the fact that the Brewers are heating up at the plate, too. At -150 odds, a NRFI bet has to check all the boxes, and that one just didn't today.
In this piece, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets today are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning, not the entire game's outcome. The most common outcome for the first inning is an NRFI, so the odds usually reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds than YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (June 3, 2025)
- Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates (6:40 pm)
- Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees (7:05 pm)
- Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (7:35 pm)
- Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals (7:45 pm)
- San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (9:45 pm)
Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- HOU: Lance McCullers Jr. (3-2)
- PIT: Paul Skenes (12-0)
Since we have a bunch of bets today, I am going to try to keep my analysis a bit shorter for each. Let me practice my brevity a bit as I tend to be a little long-winded.
Paul Skenes is very, very good. The Pirates' offense is very, very bad.
We are now 35 starts into Paul Skenes’ MLB career. His stats:
208.1 IP
2.03 ERA
15-8 W-L
247 K’s
0.94 WHIP
.194 BAA
6.6 fWARAbsolutely generational. pic.twitter.com/0L47TKYHX2
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) May 28, 2025
Perhaps that's a bit too short? Skenes is undefeated on NRFIs and has been locked in over the last month, pitching some of his best baseball recently.
The Astros' offense doesn't scare me either. They're 7-3 on NRFIs over the last 10 games, but still rank dead last in first-inning scoring this season.
Lance McCullers had a shaky start to his season but is coming off his best outing of the season as he whiffed 12 Athletics in his most recent start. I'll happily pay the juice on this one as we have two pitchers who appear to be in peak form against two below-average offenses.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- CLE: Tanner Bibee (8-3)
- NYY: Carlos Rodon (10-2)
This game is my pivot off the Reds-Brewers game. Carlos Rodon has been Paul Skenes-esque this season and is mowing down opposing hitters with ease over the last month.
Carlos Rodon in May:
30.2 IP, 1.49 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 38 SO, 7 BB, .172 BAA pic.twitter.com/5l44n9u1Dm
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) May 28, 2025
I love his matchup against Cleveland, which has a middling offense and is on the wrong side of their splits against lefties. Pitch around Jose Ramirez, Carlos, and you should be just fine.
The Tanner Bibee vs. Yankees lineup matchup is the one that we are going to sweat, and the Yankees' strong first-inning offense is the reason we can get this bet at such good odds.
Bibee has been in good form lately and is riding a six-game NRFI streak. He has to navigate Aaron Judge, but hopefully he pitches carefully to him and doesn't let him beat him (and bust our bet).
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- TEX: Tyler Mahle (10-2)
- TBR: Drew Rasmussen (8-2)
Tyler Mahle has been one of the big surprises in baseball this year. He continues to pitch effectively for the Rangers, and he's been very solid in the first inning this year, limiting hitters to a .200 average while not hurting himself with walks.
The Rays' offense has been trending up lately, going 6-4 on NRFIs in their last ten games. But Mahle's ability to induce weak contact and keep the ball in the park mitigates the risk here a bit.
Drew Rasmussen has been on a tear lately...
Last three starts: 18IP 9H 0ER 3BB 13k. Lowers his season ERA to 2.33...
Quietly having a phenomenal season thus far. pic.twitter.com/lQuyoJrvy9
— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) May 29, 2025
Meanwhile, Tampa counters with Drew Rasmussen, who is having a fantastic season of his own and has been the most reliable starter in this rotation. He's not striking hitters out at a high rate, but has a solid 5.9% BB% and enters today's game with an elite 2.32 ERA.
The Rangers' offense is 8-2 on NRFIs over the last ten games, and Texas has struggled on offense for much of the season.
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- KCR: Michael Lorenzen (10-1)
- STL: Andre Pallante (10-1)
These two pitchers are really fascinating because I wouldn't refer to either of them as anything better than average overall as starters. They both enter today with ERAs in the low fours, but both have been really effective early in games, as evidenced by their NRFI records.
Lorenzen is the guy who makes me a little more nervous as the Cardinals' offense has been heating up, as they are 6-4 on NRFIs in their last ten. The Royals' offense continues to slump, which is why they finally called up their top hitting prospect, Jac Caglianone, for today's game.
Pallante is an elite groundball pitcher, so he isn't too vulnerable to home runs. Kansas City would have to string together multiple hits to score on him in the first.
I'm putting my faith in two veteran pitchers who have been getting good results in the first inning here and hoping that the Royals and Cardinals continue to be below-average offenses early in games.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- SDP: Ryan Bergert (0-0)
- SFG: Landen Roupp (9-2)
I don't love betting on a rookie making his first MLB start, but Ryan Bergert has been a pretty effective pitcher at Triple-A this season and in his first four innings at the MLB level.
The matchup is really what I am targeting as the Giants are just 9-1 on NRFIs in their last ten innings, struggling badly to get early offense, and just slumping overall at the plate.
Landen Roupp, Bowel-locking Curveball. 💩
22 inches of Horizontal Break. pic.twitter.com/WXQXyFplmR
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 28, 2025
On the other side, Landen Roupp has been strong early in games and is riding a six-game NRFI streak. He is very tough on right-handed hitters with his nasty curveball, which gives me some confidence he can navigate at-bats against both Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. tonight.
The Padres' offense is good, but they haven't been great lately, going 7-3 on NRFIs in their last 10.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Giants (9-1)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Reds, Yankees (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Mets (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Reds (.413)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: Reds (.482)
Savvy bettors can find real value in the first inning, and today’s NRFI picks offer some of the strongest plays on the board.
Whether you're riding the wave with elite arms like Skenes or banking on struggling lineups to stay quiet early, these NRFI bets today are built on data, form, and matchup edges.
As NRFI betting continues to grow in popularity, sharp players are increasingly turning to MLB NRFI bets as a consistent strategy. Stick with our daily picks for your edge in this fast-paced market.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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