NFL Rookies to Watch in Week 17: Fantasy Football Dynasty and Redraft Leagues

December 30, 2023

NFL rookie outlooks for fantasy football Week 17 (2023). Hayden looks at promising fantasy rookies at QB, RB, and WR to identify potential sleepers and busts.

Week 17 is here, which means most fantasy leagues have reached their championship games. Many rookies helped their fantasy managers survive last week and advance to this stage. One notable example was Los Angeles Rams wideout Puka Nacua. Nacua caught nine of 11 targets for 164 yards and a touchdown versus New Orleans, finishing as the week's WR3 in PPR leagues. The rookie out of BYU became an elite fantasy asset despite being just a fifth-round pick this past April.

Some other established first-year options that turned in quality performances were Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs, and Ravens WR Zay Flowers. Each of these three was a first-round pick and has provided significant fantasy value throughout the season. Other rookies put forth surprising stat lines, though. Washington running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. impressed with 65 total yards and two touchdowns, and Carolina quarterback Bryce Young had his best outing of the year.

Whether you are a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I have been breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column is split into two parts: one about players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues

Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI)

Bears rookie running back Roschon Johnson has had a disappointing rookie campaign. The former Texas Longhorn has had just one game with a snap share that exceeded 50 percent. Johnson has also had single-digit carries in 12 of 13 appearances, and he has reached 10 PPR points just three times. His best showing came back in Week 1 against Green Bay; that week, Johnson had 11 touches for 55 total yards and his only touchdown this season.

Since Week 12, though, Johnson has generally been getting more involved. His past four games have seen him total 25 rushing attempts, his most in a four-game stretch this season. He has also surpassed 50 total yards three times in this span; he had not reached that benchmark since his aforementioned debut. Last week with teammate D'Onta Foreman unavailable, Johnson had 12 touches for 53 yards. The week before, he had 11 touches for 60 yards.

Foreman is in line to return this weekend versus the Atlanta Falcons. Even so, Johnson could continue to see extra work. The Bears, while still mathematically in the hunt for the postseason, are quite unlikely to qualify for the playoffs. It is a strong possibility that the coaching staff will give Johnson more volume to assess his capabilities moving forward. Fantasy managers should monitor the Atlanta-Chicago matchup for this reason.

Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)

Quentin Johnston has had a nightmarish rookie season for the Los Angeles Chargers. Despite being a first-round draft choice, Johnston has not been a real fantasy contributor. He did not reach 20 receiving yards in a game until Week 7, and he has had only two games with five or more catches. Even though teammates and fellow receivers Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have missed significant time, Johnston's target share sits at merely 10.5 percent.

Johnston's efficiency metrics are uninspiring as well. The TCU product ranks 85th among receivers with 0.98 yards per route run and 84th with 0.21 fantasy points per route run. Moreover, he ranks 73rd at his position in fantasy points per target and 76th in yards per target. More crucially in the eyes of the public, though, Johnston has had some crushing drops in important situations for the Chargers. Despite having a seemingly perfect opportunity to break out before quarterback Justin Herbert's injury, an emergence never materialized.

This week will present another chance for Johnston, though. Star receiver Keenan Allen will miss his third game in a row on Sunday, and Palmer has also already been ruled out. Over the past two weeks without Allen, Johnston has caught just four passes on eight targets. Nonetheless, he will once again be called upon to step up. Make sure to watch his game versus Denver to see how well he can perform in such a situation.

Jayden Reed (WR, GB)

Packers rookie receiver Jayden Reed was forced to miss last week's contest versus Carolina. Before that, though, he had been playing quality football. Reed has reached 15 PPR points five times in six outings since Week 10. His most recent performance saw him make six grabs on eight targets versus Tampa Bay; those catches went for 52 yards and a touchdown. The week before that, Reed had his best showing of the year with 20.5 PPR points and a WR6 finish.

Unlike Johnston, Reed has been doing damage on a per-target basis. Indeed, he is averaging 2.14 fantasy points per target, 13th among receivers. His touchdown scoring has been a big component of that success, as he has found the endzone an impressive eight times on the season. That in turn is a product of his strong total of 17 red zone targets. Reed's ability to score touchdowns has made up for his 71st-ranked aDOT of 9.4 yards and his 67th-ranked mark of 7.2 yards per target.

Reed will be returning to Green Bay's active lineup this Sunday at Minnesota. Some of his teammates may not be joining him this weekend, however. Christian Watson is doubtful with a hamstring issue, and fellow rookie Dontayvion Wicks is questionable with ankle and chest injuries. Reed should be able to regain his recent momentum without much difficulty given how banged up Green Bay's receiving room is at the moment. Expect another solid stat line from Reed versus the Vikings.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

Jaren Hall (QB, MIN)

The Minnesota Vikings have had a tumultuous season at the quarterback position. Starter Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles tendon in a Week 8 matchup versus Green Bay, so rookie Jaren Hall got the start at QB the following week. Hall suffered a concussion early in that game, though, allowing for Joshua Dobbs, a midseason acquisition, to take over. Dobbs got benched for Nick Mullens ahead of Minnesota's Week 15 game, though. After a four-interception performance last week, Mullens will be heading to the bench with Hall returning to the starting lineup.

Hall played well in his brief action earlier this season. The rookie out of BYU completed five of six passes for 78 yards in his lone start versus Atlanta, and he added 11 rushing yards as well. Hopefully, he will be able to maintain that impressive efficiency over a larger sample size; he completed 26 of 48 passes for 264 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the preseason. He will have superstar wideout Justin Jefferson and electric rookie Jordan Addison to rely on and boost his output.

The Vikings will be facing the Packers this weekend in a game with major playoff implications. Green Bay's defense has not been holding up well recently. Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns versus the Packers in Week 15. Last Sunday, rookie Bryce Young set a career-high with 312 passing yards against them; Young had gone seven straight games without even 200 yards before that. With Green Bay's star cornerback Jaire Alexander suspended this week, Hall can put forth a favorable performance to wow dynasty managers.

Derius Davis (WR, LAC)

Quentin Johnston is not the only former TCU wide receiver who was drafted by the Chargers this year. Derius Davis, also a former Horned Frog, was selected by the team in the fourth round. Davis has had a quiet season; he is averaging 2.1 PPR points per game, and he has only 16 targets. Nevertheless, the rookie has made some plays. He ran a punt back 87 yards for a score against the Jets, and in Week 4 he had a 51-yard run.

Davis is a small receiver at 5'8" and 165 pounds, but he provides elite speed. Davis ran a 4.36-second 40-yard dash at the combine, giving him a 96th-percentile time. He also showed off his incredible explosiveness with a position-leading 1.46-second 10-yard split. His usage in college was limited mostly to short throws behind the line of scrimmage, however, and that has carried over to the NFL so far. Davis's aDOT is negative at -2.6 yards.

As stated above for Johnston, the Chargers will be without both Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer this week. Watch to see if Davis gets more involved in their absences. Last week, Davis matched his career-high with seven routes run; look for that number to be higher on Sunday. Additionally, check if Davis gets more varied looks in the offense. If the team starts using him downfield, his dynasty stock would see a big boost.

Michael Wilson (WR, ARI)

Third-round rookie Michael Wilson gradually built up steam to begin his NFL career. Over the first four weeks of the season, Wilson increased his fantasy output each game. That progression culminated in a seven-reception, 76-yard, two-touchdown outing versus the 49ers. Wilson has not reached 10 PPR points since then, however. He has had snap shares of at least 80 percent in each of his past six games, and he has failed to reach an 80-percent route participation rate just once this year. Still, his production has not reflected that.

Part of Wilson's struggles may be a lack of chemistry with starting quarterback Kyler Murray. Since Murray returned from injury in Week 10, Wilson has played three games. The rookie from Stanford has caught only three passes on 13 targets in those appearances, and he has gone catchless in the last two. Wilson's neck issue that kept him sidelined for three weeks also did not help matters, as he lost valuable time to develop a rapport with Murray.

The Cardinals have now placed receiver Marquise Brown on injured reserve due to his heel injury. Brown has been dealing with that ailment since November, and he missed last week's contest versus Chicago because of it. Wilson will be asked to provide more to the offense with Brown unavailable. Thus, these final two weeks will be a great opportunity for dynasty managers to get a better look at him. Anticipate Wilson making his first catches since Week 10 in a bounceback showing.

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