RADIO
The 2022 rookie class took a big hit recently when Jets running back Breece Hall tore his ACL in Week 7, ending his season. Even so, New York still had another standout rookie performer last week; wide receiver Garrett Wilson caught seven passes for 115 yards. Other rookies, like Tyler Allgeier, Greg Dulcich, and Isaiah Likely, had strong showings as well.
Texans rookie running back Dameon Pierce has already set the bar high this week for first-year players. Pierce carried the ball 27 times for 139 yards on Thursday Night Football. Despite losing the game 29-17 to the now 8-0 Philadelphia Eagles, the Texans must be pleased with the results they're seeing out of their young tailback.
Whether you're a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I will be breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column will be split into two parts: one pertaining to players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.
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NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues
Brian Robinson (RB, WAS)
Less than two months after being shot, Commanders rookie running back Brian Robinson won over football fans with his remarkably quick return to the playing field in Week 5. Robinson's workload increased from nine touches in his debut to 17 in the following week, and in Week 7 he saw even higher volume at 22 touches. The Alabama product ascended further up fantasy football rankings with each successive performance.
However, perhaps fantasy managers should have been more hesitant in their evaluations of Robinson. He quickly came back to Earth last week with a paltry eight carries for 20 yards. After further inspection, his previous outings were rather unimpressive as well. He has yet to reach even 4.0 yards per carry in a given week, and he has made just two catches all season. He was even out-snapped by two of his teammates in the backfield in Week 8; Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic each saw 22 snaps compared to Robinson's 15.
While Robinson's tale of resilience in the face of adversity is incredible, it's time to pump the brakes on the hype train before it goes off the rails. He is just 73rd in fantasy points per opportunity and 53rd in yards created per touch among running backs. If Robinson has another low-efficiency game on Sunday versus Minnesota, it would be wise to sell him to whichever opponent still values him the highest. If he breaks out, though, the narrative of his season becomes all the more impressive.
Drake London (WR, ATL)
Several rookies got out to hot starts this season to begin their NFL careers. One such example was Atlanta wide receiver Drake London. London, this year's eighth-overall pick in the NFL Draft, caught five passes for 74 yards in Week 1 and tallied eight catches for 86 yards and a score in Week 2. The latter performance was good enough to finish as the weekly WR10 in PPR formats. His outlook was subsequently adjusted upwards to being a solid WR2 for the rest of the season.
First big play in #Falcons rookie Drake London's career.pic.twitter.com/ckdna8xG8I
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 11, 2022
The problem is that London has not matched his stat lines from those two games since. His production has completely stagnated; he hasn't even posted a WR45 or better weekly finish since Week 3. Last week, he made four catches for 31 yards in a wholly uninspiring performance. London actually has the eighth-highest target rate and ninth-highest target share among wideouts this season, but his numbers have not been reflecting that.
The Falcons simply do not throw the ball frequently or effectively enough to support reliable fantasy options in the passing game. London is in a similar boat as tight end Kyle Pitts; both are very talented players who are in a tragic situation for fantasy purposes at the moment.
Atlanta quarterback Marcus Mariota actually had his second-highest number of pass attempts on the year last week, and the Falcons on Sunday will take on a weak Chargers pass defense that now lacks star cornerback J.C. Jackson. The passing attack returning to relevance in Atlanta would be a huge boost to London's prospects for the remainder of the season.
Romeo Doubs (WR, GB)
With teammate Allen Lazard nursing a shoulder injury last Sunday, rookie receiver Romeo Doubs had one of his best games as a professional. Seizing the opportunity before him, Doubs caught four of seven targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. His 16.2 PPR points on Sunday Night Football made for the second-highest weekly total of his career so far. The showing came just one week after Doubs was held without a catch by the Commanders.
ROMEO DOUBS WHAT A CATCH. #GoPackGo
📺: #GBvsBUF on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/c9RP6Gj8id pic.twitter.com/P1dNwIvz9d— NFL (@NFL) October 31, 2022
The fourth-round rookie from Nevada may be in a similar situation this weekend against Detroit. Fellow rookie Christian Watson (concussion) and Lazard are both questionable to play in Week 9. The Lions have also yielded the sixth-most passing yards and ninth-most passing touchdowns in the league this year. The stars seem to be aligning for Doubs to set new career highs on Sunday, and he should be considered a quality FLEX option for the matchup.
Something to watch for from Doubs beyond just the immediate production this week is what his average target distance (aDOT) looks like. With just a 9.1 aDOT (71st among receivers), 1.31 yards per route run (73rd), and 6.0 yards per target (87th), Doubs currently requires relatively high volume to thrive for fantasy managers. When Lazard comes back and Watson starts to blossom, Doubs will need to become a bigger downfield threat to compensate for the decreased target share.
NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues
Ronnie Rivers (RB, LAR)
Last weekend, the Rams faced quite a dilemma with their backfield. Cam Akers remained the subject of trade discussions and was not active for the team's Week 8 matchup with San Francisco as a result. Darrell Henderson was limited all week with an illness and logged just six touches. Rookie Kyren Williams is still dealing with an ankle injury he suffered in Week 1, and Malcolm Brown was far from an exciting option. Thus, the team turned to undrafted rookie Ronnie Rivers to see what he could do.
Rivers, a former Fresno State Bulldog, accumulated just eight carries for 21 yards on the ground last Sunday, although he did add four catches for 15 yards in the air. Surprisingly, his rushing numbers led the team despite being poor. The rookie may have a chance at a mulligan this week; Brown remains pedestrian, Williams has still not returned, and Akers's status is in limbo despite him rejoining the squad. Henderson should be healthy, but he has had just one game with 10+ carries since Week 2.
None of Rivers's measurables jump off the page; he has a 20th-percentile speed score, 67th-percentile burst score, and 43rd-percentile bench press. His college stats are a little more impressive. His 14.0 percent target share was at the 92nd percentile among RBs. That, plus the game script of the team's 31-14 loss, explains why a third of his touches were receptions last week. If Rivers can bounce back with a more efficient showing against Tampa Bay, he becomes a decent stash in dynasty leagues due to the tumultuous Rams offense.
Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL)
Isaiah Likely has become a solid fantasy asset in year one of his NFL career. In Week 8, Baltimore's star tight end, Mark Andrews, went down with a shoulder injury. This opened the door for Likely to have the highest output of his season to date. With six catches, 77 yards, and a touchdown, Likely was a big part of Baltimore's 27-22 win over Tampa Bay. He finished as the weekly TE2 in PPR leagues with 19.7 fantasy points.
TOUCHDOWN @DaGorilla4!!!!
WE'RE UP 17-10!!!
Tune in on @NFLonPrime. pic.twitter.com/8VIPYLq4CO
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 28, 2022
Andrews has never missed a game with an injury since entering the league in 2018, but that streak is in jeopardy of snapping this week. Andrews did not practice on either Thursday or Friday, leaving his status very much in doubt. Likely would take over as the starter if Andrews is unable to play on Monday night, instantly making him a startable fantasy option, especially in the wake of Rashod Bateman's season-ending injury.
More importantly, though, Likely's dynasty managers would get to see what he looks like in a full game as a starter. It is improbable that he would disappoint. He has shown plenty of flashes already, including in the preseason when he dominated the competition. He also had a great college career with Coastal Carolina, finishing with a 91st-percentile college dominator. The former Chanticleer will look to build off of the career highs he set last weekend.
James Mitchell (TE, DET)
On Tuesday, the NFL had its annual trade deadline. This season's iteration was arguably the most hectic trade deadline in league history. With players such as Chase Claypool, Nyheim Hines, Jeff Wilson Jr., Chase Edmonds, and Calvin Ridley all dealt on the same day, the fantasy football landscape experienced a sizable shift. Another key player that found a new home is former Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson, who is now heading to Minnesota to play for the Vikings.
While this of course will affect Hockenson's fantasy outlook, it will also influence those of the players he is leaving behind. One such player is James Mitchell, who now rises in Detroit's depth chart. Mitchell was a fifth-round pick this season out of Virginia Tech. Mitchell's speed score, 20-yard shuttle, vertical jump, arm length, and college dominator all are near the averages for tight ends. He has yet to make a big mark this season, having made just one catch for 14 yards.
With Hockenson gone, Mitchell and Brock Wright will compete for the starting tight end job for the Lions. However, Wright is questionable for this weekend's game against Green Bay with a concussion. Mitchell could suddenly find himself as a starter this week. Dynasty managers should take the opportunity to scout Mitchell and determine whether or not he is worth adding to their teams. This will be the first substantial chance to observe Mitchell in NFL game action.
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