RADIO
The NFL season is officially into Week 16, and we have just three weeks of regular season games left until the playoffs are upon us. Teams have begun shutting players down to protect them from further injury, but there are still a lot of teams that are jockeying for playoff positioning. When placing your bets over the next few weeks, make sure to pay attention to which teams have something to play for compared to the ones that don't because that can help you or hurt you depending on where you're placing your bets.
It was another 3-2 week, and we’re sitting in the green again. Tony Pollard missed by two yards in a blowout performance where his team trailed nearly the entire way, and Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams rode running back Kyren Williams to victory in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. We got an easy win from Tucker Kraft, but DK Metcalf and T.J. Hockenson made us sweat it out. However, at the end of the day, a win is a win.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 16
Gerald Everett O21.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -110
Over the last two weeks, there are two players on the Los Angeles Chargers that have double-digit targets with quarterback Easton Stick under center. They are running back Austin Ekeler with 11 and tight end Gerald Everett, who leads the team with 12. Everett has hit this number seven times this year, including four straight games. The matchup with the Buffalo Bills isn’t great, but with wideout Keenan Allen (heel) already ruled out for this game, that leaves more room for Everett to work.
The Bills are in the middle of the pack in terms of receptions allowed to tight ends, and they’ve been strong at defending the position overall in terms of yards allowed, as they’ve allowed the 12th-fewest yards to opposing tight ends this season. However, I expect them to lead this game for the majority of the way, and that will force the Chargers to have to throw more than they want. Getting this line, which is three yards better than most books, is a line I’m more than willing to take.
Tyreek Hill O6.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: +102
On this one, I just wanted to take advantage of a line that I think the books were making a mistake on. Miami Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous player on any offense in the league. When he’s on the field, defenses have to devote so many resources to him that it shifts everything they want to do. He’s hit this line in eight out of his 13 games this season, including a stretch of five straight games a few weeks ago.
On the opposite side, the Dallas Cowboys have the pass rush to get after quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, especially with the laundry list of injuries that Miami has up front. With that being said, I would expect the Dolphins to work to get the ball out of his hands quickly and into the hands of his playmakers. While Hill still has the deep speed to get past this defense even with a quick release, I think that the Dolphins are going to get the ball to Hill early in plays and let him make plays happen behind this defense.
Adam Thielen O4.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -115
We’re targeting a struggling defense for this prop. The Green Bay Packers were sitting at .500 before they lost back-to-back games where they got absolutely carved up by their opponents. In each game, slot receivers were getting whatever they wanted against this secondary. Specifically, Chris Godwin caught 10 of his 12 targets for 155 yards, and he was open on nearly every third down in the center of the field. Adam Thielen had hit this mark in eight of the team’s first nine games before quieting down over the last couple of weeks, but this is a great get-right spot for him.
Thielen has had some great games against the Packers in the past, and he is the perfect kind of receiver to give them fits now. He doesn’t win with speed or physicality. Instead, he just sits down in the open zones and dices them up down the field. Thielen is still leading the Panthers' wide receivers in snap counts every week, and that doesn’t appear to be changing. This is a good buy-low spot for the veteran wideout.
Josh Sweat O0.5 Sacks
Sportsbook: ESPNBET
Odds: -105
For the first time this season, we’re breaking out a defensive prop in the form of a sack prop for the Monday ahead. Philadelphia Eagles edge rusher Josh Sweat had a career-high 11 sacks last season, and at 6.5 through 14 games, he’s right around his previous career-high of 7.5 sacks in 14 games from two seasons ago. After racking up 5.5 sacks in the team’s first seven games, Sweat has just one sack in the last seven games, including zero in his last five. So why are we targeting him in this matchup after so many quiet weeks in a row? It’s time for him to get back on track in the perfect get-right matchup.
The New York Giants lead the league with 76 sacks allowed, which is an average of 5.4 sacks per game. The Eagles have lost three straight games, but they still control their destiny in the NFC East. If they win out, against the Giants twice and the Arizona Cardinals, they’ll be the NFC East champions and likely the number two seed in the NFC. Sweat has a sack in three straight games against the Giants, and I think he makes it four straight this weekend.
Lamar Jackson O53.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
We’re going to the prime time matchup of the week for this prop with Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson getting the nod here. Jackson has gone over this rushing prop in seven games this season, including four of his last six. When his team is in games that are a bit on the scrappier side, he tends to rush a bit more. I also think it’s an area of this San Francisco 49ers’ defense that the Ravens will try to attack.
The 49ers are fourth by DVOA against the pass, but they’re 18th by DVOA against the run. In their losses, teams have either generated big plays, or they’ve been able to grind out the clock with the running game. With Lamar as an added element that defenses have to account for, he makes life more stressful and improves the effectiveness of their running game, as evidenced by Baltimore being eight percent better than the second-place team by DVOA on the ground.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
