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The NASCAR Xfinity Series is back in action on Saturday. Last week, Austin Hill earned his third consecutive season-opening win at Daytona. He was also the winner of the Atlanta race last March, back when it was the fifth race of the season. Can Hill get two wins in a row?
The Xfinity Series was last here in July, with John Hunter Nemechek winning despite leading just three laps. Justin Haley led a race-high 80 laps and finished fourth in the race.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the NASCAR Xfinity Series The LiUNA! on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station. This slate locks on 3/2/24 at 5:11 p.m. ET.
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Las Vegas Race Trends
After two weeks at drafting tracks, the NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend. This place is a lot more normal than the first two tracks were, making it a little easier to predict things.
Last October in the last Xfinity Series race here, two drivers combined to lead 165 of the 201 laps. This is a place where getting track position matters. Now, last week's race at Atlanta saw Jesse Love lead 157 of 169 laps, but that was a really weird one. We don't usually see that kind of thing at drafting tracks. At Daytona, for instance, we saw 19 lead changes.
Place differential also won't come into play as strongly here as it does at other tracks. In this race last year, just one of the top 10 finishers started outside the top 15. Last week at Atlanta, three top 10 finishers came from outside the top 15, while at Daytona we saw three as well.
This week will be a lot more predictable. Someone likely leads a ton of laps. The drivers who start near the front will mostly stay there. You'll get some place differential drivers who go +10 or so from the 30s into the 20s or maybe the teens, but it won't be like it's been lately.
Drivers Who Could Dominate
Track position matters here, so both drivers who start on the front row are of interest to me here. We've got Cole Custer ($10,500) on the pole and Chandler Smith ($10,300), both of whom should be viewed as top contenders. Custer was on the outside pole here last year and led 62 laps.
Then there's Austin Hill ($10,000), who starts fifth. Hill won this race one year ago after starting ninth, and he's won the first two races of this Xfinity season. He has a great shot to make it three in a row.
Back-to-back wins this season for @_AustinHill in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. How does it feel to roll into Vegas with ALL the momentum? #NASCARonFS1 pic.twitter.com/B6sEcumzzR
— Amanda Busick 🆎 (@AmandaBusick) March 2, 2024
Then there's Riley Herbst ($9,500), who dominated here last fall. He starts 11th, so he isn't positioned well to repeat his dominant showing, but he can move steadily forward and be there in the end.
The two highest-priced drivers are John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000) and Justin Allgaier ($10,700). I'll talk about Allgaier later, but with Nemechek, I'm probably fading him. He starts 12th—since 2009, the Xfinity winner here has come from 12th or worse just twice. Not that he can't win, but I think at $11,000, I'd rather pivot elsewhere.
Other drivers who I might sprinkle into my lineups are Aric Almirola ($9,300) and Sam Mayer ($8,800), who have a little place differential upside and should have solid races.
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Top Place Differential Plays
You know how I said I'd talk about Justin Allgaier later? Well, here we go. Allgaier was top five in practice but got loose in qualifying and winds up starting 36th. He's an obvious chalk play and you've got to have exposure to him, especially because he's really the only place differential play among the top drivers. No one else starts outside the top 15 until you get all the way down to Shane Van Gisbergen ($8,300), who is the 14th-most expensive driver.
Good save by Justin Allgaier. Almost wrecked three times through Turns 1 and 2. #NASCAR
— Dustin Albino (@DustinAlbino) March 2, 2024
And hey, SVG is also a solid option, as he starts 25th. However, with the dearth of good PD options, Van Gisbergen might end up chalk too, and this is his first non-superspeedway oval race.
Josh Williams ($7,400) has struggled this season and is averaging -11.3 DFS points per race, but he's in a Kaulig car and starts 32nd. I want exposure there. I also want exposure to Anthony Alfredo ($7,000), who starts 37th.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Deep Sleepers
Before we get to drivers uner $7,000, one name I want to bring up is Parker Retzlaff ($7,600), who starts fourth. He could obviously lose a lot of spots on Saturday, but he also could deliver some really nice fantasy points per dollar if he can stay near the front.
Good save by Justin Allgaier. Almost wrecked three times through Turns 1 and 2. #NASCAR
— Dustin Albino (@DustinAlbino) March 2, 2024
Hailee Deegan ($6,100) hasn't had a great start to the season, but back in 2022, she ran an Xfinity Series race here and finished a really solid 13th. This could be a good race for her.
I might play a little Nick Leitz ($5,500), a little Garrett Smithley ($5,400) for the place differential upside. Mostly, though, I don't know what to think about the backmarkers yet. Daytona and Atlanta aren't super predictive, so this is the first real week for us to figure out what these teams look like. We'll have a better idea after this week of who is a good deep sleeper and who isn't. For now, I probably won't play anyone under Smithley in pricing.
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