MLB Betting Expert Picks (8/17/19): Moneylines, Totals

August 17, 2019

Joe Williams' MLB betting picks for 8/17/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.

Welcome to the Saturday, Aug. 17th edition of RotoBaller's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.

• Last Tuesday's Picks: 2-1 (66.7%) +65
• Year-to-Date: 35-23 (60.3%) +987

In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to contact me on Twitter @JoeWilliamsVI if you have any questions or if you'd like additional content and occasional gambling notes and tidbits.

Here are my picks for Saturday, Aug. 17th. Be sure to check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!

Chicago Cubs (-150) @ Pittsburgh Pirates

O/U: 10

The Cubs were my only loss on Tuesday, but you have to have a short memory when wagering.

While the Cubs are just 2-6 across LHP Jon Lester's past eight road starts, they're a perfect 4-0 in his past four outings against the Pirates. In addition, they're a whopping 44-10 in Lester's past 54 starts against teams with a losing overall record, including 20-6 in his past 26 starts away from home against teams with a losing mark. They're also an impressive 35-17 in his past 52 starts inside the NL Central.

For the Pirates, they have managed a dismal 7-25 record across the past 32 games overall, and they have won just nine times across the past 35 inside the NL Central. They're also a poor 2-10 in the past 12 games at home, while cashing in just two of their past 10 tries against a southpaw. The Pirates are also just 1-4 in LHP Steven Brault's past five starts at home against a team with a winning overall mark, 0-5 in his past five inside the division, 0-6 in his past six starts against teams with a winning overall record and 0-4 in his past four outings overall.

My Pick: Cubs (-150)

New York Mets (-225) @ Kansas City Royals

O/U: 8.5

The Mets and Royals will be facing a Jetstream blowing out at 9-12 mph to the left-center field power alley. That's bad news for pitchers RHP Jacob deGrom and RHP Jakob Junis, especially the latter.

The over is actually 9-3-1 in deGrom's past 13 road starts against a team with a losing overall record, while going 4-0 in the past four on the road vs. RHP. The over is also 21-10-1 in his past 32 starts overall against losing clubs.

The under has dominated for the Royals lately, mainly due to poor offensive output. The over is 3-1-1 in Junis' past five at home against a team with a winning overall record, however. With the wind blowing out, expect the Mets to serve up at least two home runs to the Mets in a game which should easily hit double digits.

My Pick: OVER 8.5 runs (-110)

Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies (-245)

O/U: 12

The Rockies are heavy chalk against the Marlins in a battle of 1993 MLB expansion organizations. Take the moneyline in this one for a much better value.

The Marlins are 1-4 in the past five games overall and 0-6 in the past six in Game 2 of a series. They're also just 8-20 in the past 28 against a right-handed starting pitcher, while hitting in just six of the past 19 against teams with a losing overall record. They're also 17-35 in the past 52 away from home against teams with a losing overall mark. Miami hasn't fared very well against righties on the road, either, going 18-48 in the past 66 away from home vs. RHP.

The Rockies have struggled lately, going 11-28 in the past 39 games overall, while cashing in just two of their past eight against a right-handed starting pitcher. RHP German Marquez has been the elixir for their ills, however, as the Rox are 9-1 in his past 10 assignments against teams with a losing overall record, and 8-3 in the past 11 starts at Coors Field. They're also 5-1 in his past six starts against NL East foes and 5-1 in the past six at home against losing teams.

As an added bonus, the under is 19-9-1 in the past 29 meetings in this series.

My Pick: Rockies (-1.5, -140 and UNDER 12 runs)

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