Mid to Late Round Receivers Fantasy Football Managers Should Know - Part III

March 9, 2024

Three-part series looking at 10 rookie receivers who are likely to be drafted later whom fantasy managers should be familiar with. In the right situation, these players could be fantasy relevant as rookies.

This is our final entry in this series. We'll focus on our three last receivers expected to be drafted in the middle rounds of this year's NFL Draft, who should not be ignored or forgotten by fantasy football managers. These 10 receivers covered in this series should be on the radar for dynasty managers. However, with the right landing spot, all these players could become fantasy-relevant in 2024 and be excellent late-round dart throws in redraft leagues that could pay off big.

When you're talking about mid-to-late round prospects, making a year-one impact, a lot of the time, comes down to landing spot. You can find all 32 NFL teams graded on which landing spot is the best for a rookie receiver here. Our first entry focused on Jacob Cowing, Jalen McMillan, and Jermaine Burton. You can find that entry here. We focused on Xavier Legette, Ja'Lynn Polk, Malik Washington, and Ricky Pearsall in our second. You can find that entry here. These receivers bring something different to the table, but in the right spot, they could become fantasy-relevant even in 2024.

These receivers won't require a premium pick in rookie drafts or redraft leagues. Still, all of them showed enough in college that if they land in the right spot, they could become players fantasy managers will want to have on the bench, possibly even their starting lineup. The risk won't be high, but the upside is there. If you want to take advantage of our great premium tools, please use promo code, "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.  

Javon Baker, UCF

Baker is a four-year player who started his college career at Alabama before transferring after his first two seasons. That could be viewed as a knock on him; however, considering the target competition Baker was dealing with as a freshman, it shouldn't be. DeVonta Smith was in the midst of his Heisman-winning season. John Metchie III and Jaylen Waddle were also on that team. Smith and Waddle were selected in the first 10 picks of the 2021 NFL Draft.

In Baker’s second season with Alabama, it was the Metchie and Jameson Williams show. These two racked up 175 receptions, 2,714 yards, and 23 touchdowns. Williams was drafted 12th overall, and Metchie went in the second round. Being beat out by not one, not two, but three players selected in the top 15 of the NFL Draft shouldn’t be viewed as a nail in the coffin.

It’s not hard to see why people like Javon Baker.

4-star recruit (90 Prospect Grade).

Ideal size (6’1”/208).

Trapped behind DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Jameson Williams, & John Metchie in 2 years at Bama (but did post 3.61 YPRR & a 76.3 PFF Receiving Grade on 23 routes as a… pic.twitter.com/4Zf8tgBDX7

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) February 23, 2024

However, after two seasons of not getting the playing time he needed to develop his game, Baker transferred to UCF. In his first season there, Baker had 100 targets, 56 receptions, 796 yards, and five touchdowns. He finished with a 71.9 PFF receiving grade. Baker posted a 22.5% target share, a 23.6% market share of the team’s passing yards, and a 2.03-yard per route run average. He ran almost 89% of his routes out wide and excelled in contested catch situations, hauling in 11 of his 21 opportunities for a 52.4% catch rate.

His final season with UCF was his best collegiate season. He finished with 85 targets, 52 receptions, 1,139 yards, and seven touchdowns. Among receivers with at least 75 targets, Baker finished first in the country with a 21.9-yard per reception average. His 84.3 PFF receiving grade ranked 21st, and his 3.21 yard per route run average was the eighth-highest in the nation. His average depth of target was 17.1, which was the third-highest. Again, he could win through contact, catching nine of 16 contested targets for a 56.3% catch rate.

Javon Baker is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored an unofficial 7.93 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 634 out of 3063 WR from 1987 to 2024.

Splits projectedhttps://t.co/vfn29wjfvi pic.twitter.com/UPKch4fV7S

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 2, 2024

In that final season, Baker posted a 23.3% target share, a 33.9% share of the team’s receiving yards, and 29% of the team’s passing touchdowns. He had a strong NFL Combine performance and should hear his name sometime in the third round. That kind of draft capital should not turn off any fantasy manager. He was a true alpha receiver at UCF. He has the size, speed, and athleticism to play at the next level.

Jamari Thrash, Louisville

Thrash is another fifth-year player. He started his collegiate career at Georgia State and didn't move the needle in his first two years. He had just 11 catches and 178 receiving yards. He took on a bigger role in year three, finishing with 50 targets, 32 receptions, 452 yards, and three touchdowns. He posted a 2.16-yard-per-route run average, running 94% of his routes out wide.

He finally had his breakout season as a senior, finishing with 94 targets, 62 receptions, 1,123 yards, and seven touchdowns. His receiving yardage was the 13th-highest in the country in 2022. Thrash’s 18.1 yards per reception average was the sixth-highest, and his 81.5 PFF receiving grade was the 26th-best. He averaged 6.8 yards after the catch per reception, the 22nd highest among 140 receivers with at least 75 targets. Among that same group, Thrash’s 2.94-yard-per-route run average was the 13th-highest. He had a 31.6% target share and finished with 46% of the team’s passing yards and 38.9% of the team’s passing touchdowns.

“Want a sleeper wide receiver who has looked great Tuesday? Louisville’s Jamari Thrash. The Georgia State transfer had immediate success in the Cardinals' offense, catching 63 passes for 858 yards and six touchdowns in 2023. On Tuesday, he had multiple deep catches down the… https://t.co/TV8oZufis8

— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) January 30, 2024

He transferred to Louisville for his fifth and final season. He finished with 96 targets, 62 receptions, 848 yards, and six touchdowns. He posted an impressive 78.4 PFF receiving grade and a 2.35 yard per route run average. From 2020-2023, Thrash had four straight seasons with an average yard per route above 2.15. He also had three seasons with a yard after the catch per reception of higher than 6.5 yards three times, including his last two seasons.

Jamari Thrash is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored an unofficial 6.29 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 1147 out of 3090 WR from 1987 to 2024.

Splits projected, reposting since I missed his run.https://t.co/DuRBvrmOTZ pic.twitter.com/sdklbwLScO

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 3, 2024

He ran almost 90% of his collegiate routes out wide. He was measured at 5-foot-11 and 188 pounds at the combine. For a full-time X receiver, he's a little smaller than expected. Louisville had him listed at 6-foot-1. His NFL Combine performance was somewhat of a mixed bag. He ran a great 40-yard dash but struggled with his vertical jump, broad jump, and agility drills. That could negatively impact his draft capital. However, he showed teams that he has the speed to be a downfield asset, which correlates with the production he displayed at Louisville in his final season.

Devontez Walker, North Carolina

Walker is an early declaree, a positive for his prospect profile. He attended Kent State for his first two collegiate seasons before transferring to North Carolina. In his first year at Kent State, Walker was minimally used on offense but had a breakout sophomore campaign. He finished with 95 targets, 58 receptions, 921 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He posted a 27.2% target share, had 35.6% of the team’s passing yards, and 64.7% of the team’s passing touchdowns.

During that 2022 season, Walker was 24th in the country with a 15.9-yard-per-reception average out of 140 receivers with at least 75 targets. He was also 26th out of that sample with a 2.62-yard per route run average. He was used primarily as a true outside receiver, running 82% of his routes out wide. Following this season, he transferred to North Carolina.

Devontez Walker is emerging as a favorite WR in tier 2

•Age 21 breakout 30%+ dominator at Kent State
•30%+ DR again transferring to UNC
•Vertical threat & YAC attack

Top-5 profile sims (pre-Combine)
Christian Kirk
Stedman Bailey
Anthony Miller
Keenan Allen
Jarvis Landry

— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) February 20, 2024

Due to eligibility issues, Walker was inactive for the season's first five weeks and played only eight games. He finished with 66 targets, 41 receptions, 699 yards, and seven touchdowns. Based on his per-game averages, had he been active those first five games, Walker was on pace to have 107 targets, 67 receptions, 1,136 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He posted a 2.28-yard-per-route run average and caught 10 of his 17 contested catch opportunities for a 58.8% catch rate.

Devontez Walker is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored an unofficial 9.88 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 38 out of 3063 WR from 1987 to 2024.

Splits projectedhttps://t.co/csoWFv2iJx pic.twitter.com/LhsNHxweKc

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 2, 2024

In his final two seasons, he had a 16.8-yard average depth of target and a 16.3-yard per reception average. Walker is a good size at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds. He ran 88% of his collegiate routes out wide and finished with a 2.52-yard per route run average in three years in college. Walker is another player whose name could be called in round two, but he’ll be someone to watch in fantasy drafts this season. Walker is an elite athlete running a 4.36 40-yard dash at 193 pounds. NFL teams will certainly be intrigued by his speed and the production he displayed at Kent State in 2022 and North Carolina in limited time this past season.

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