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Analysis of five shortstop fantasy baseball targets to draft in the mid rounds. Potential 2024 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued SS to target in drafts.
Welcome officially to the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Spring training is in full force, and fantasy managers are gearing up for another exciting season in MLB. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players who can provide a great return on value. You can start taking calculated risks on emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even players with some playing time concerns out of the gate. The early rounds are critical, and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can make or break your roster.
Today, we're looking at some middle-round shortstops for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority mid-round draft target? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2024 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2024 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more – available exclusively in our 2024 Draft Kit.
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Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
The hype train for Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz steamed right on into the 2023 season, only to see it come to a screeching halt just nine games in with a fractured ankle. During his 2022 call-up, it took a while to really get rolling, posting an 85 wRC+ in June, 70 in July, 89 in August, then finally breaking out with a 146 wRC+ in September/October. The final line was .233-17-54-45-10 with a .320 wOBA and 105 wRC+ in about half of a season's worth of action (361 PA, 87 games).
The 35% K% from 2022 needs to come down, but he offered a glimmer of hope in the small 2023 sample, collecting seven BB to eight K in 40 PA (20.0% K%). The fleet-footed Cruz had a 98th-percentile sprint speed in 2022, so a full season of bigger bases and limited pitcher disengagements will be exciting to watch.
FGDC projections are modest, with a .251-23-64-79-19 line, a wOBA of .338, and wRC+ of 110 in only 128 G (553 PA). RotoBaller ranks the 25-year-old at 80 overall, on par with his NFBC ADP. If he can manage closer to 145 G in the leadoff spot, he could easily finish top seven at his position.
-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller
Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles selected Jackson Holliday first in the 2022 MLB Draft and immediately hit the ground running. After spending the entire season as a 19-year-old, Holliday moved from Single-A Delmarva to Triple-A Norfolk to end the season, posting a combined slash of .323/.442/.499 with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases. Having strong contact skills and an elite eye at the plate, Holliday was not fazed by better pitching as he moved up levels, making contact on over 82 percent of pitches in the zone while chasing at a rate under 20 percent.
Considering the home run output, you may not think Holliday hits the ball hard. Still, he posted strong exit velocities in the minors, including a 91 mph average exit velocity. To get into more game power, Holliday will need to lift the ball more consistently.
Holliday was reassigned to minor league camp but has a chance to make an impact later with the Orioles this season. His current ADP of 208 is a good value, especially since Holliday can provide in all five categories. ATC projects Holliday to slash .259/.345/.386 with a .322 wOBA and a 106wRC+ across 115 games in 2024.
-- Chris Clegg - RotoBaller
Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees
New York Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe is coming off a 20/20 season in his rookie year. While that's nothing to get upset over, it wasn't the most rewarding season for Volpe and fantasy managers. There are no excuses to be made for a .209/.283/.383 slash line. It was just an overall poor performance on his part. In the times Volpe was bad, it was tumultuous. And when he was good, it wasn't good enough to carry his season. The 22-year-old was probably a year ahead of schedule with his MLB debut, and you wouldn't be judged if you wanted to throw away his 2023 stats.
If you're looking for positives, however, they were there. His 9% barrel percent, 88.7 exit velocity, 14.2-degree launch angle, and 43% hard-hit percent were all above league average. As were his walk rate and sweet spot percentage.
The biggest hole in the youngster's game is his strikeouts. His 27.8% K% rate put him in the bottom 11% in that category. His 179.5 ADP doesn't match his RotoBaller ranking at 119, and you could get good value from him in that draft spot. If he doesn't improve his strikeouts, it could be a long season for fantasy managers.
-- Justin Raffone - RotoBaller
Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres
In his first season with the San Diego Padres in 2023, shortstop Xander Bogaerts had a solid year, slashing .285/.350/.440 with 19 home runs, 31 doubles, two triples, 58 RBI, a career-high 19 stolen bases, and 83 runs scored in 665 plate appearances over 155 games played.
However, when considering the fact that he signed for 11 years and $280 million last winter, the 31-year-old four-time All-Star's overall numbers were somewhat disappointing. He bookended a strong start to his Padres tenure with strong finish, but in between Bogaerts was merely average at a premium position.
His underlying numbers also show that he was fortunate to finish with the kind of numbers he did. Bogaerts had a .252 expected batting average and a .395 expected slugging percentage while also regressing slightly in his hard-hit percentage. He has a solid track record of producing high batting averages (career .291 hitter over 11 seasons), but his luck could run out quickly if his hard-hit numbers continue to regress as he nears his mid-30s.
Even though ATC projects Bogaerts for a .281 average, 19 home runs, 69 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 2024, there's no guarantee his counting stats will improve in his second year in San Diego, especially after the Friars traded away one of their best offensive weapons in Juan Soto. RotoBaller has Bogaerts ranked as the No. 62 overall position player and just inside the top-15 fantasy shortstops at No. 14.
UPDATE: Adding second base eligibility -- he's making the move to the keystone full-time in 2024 -- will soften the blow if Bogaerts continues to decline offensively.
-- Keith Hernandez - RotoBaller
Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson has produced at least 22 HRs, 80 RBI, 78 R, and nine SB each of the past three seasons but has a career BA of just .253. His first season in Chicago saw him reduce his K% two full percentage points down to 24.1% while raising his BB% from 7.0% (below average) to 10.3% (above average).
The former No. 1 overall pick's below-average career Contact% of 74.0% results in cold spells at the plate; however, his chase rate (28.4% in 2023) is better than the league average. With 18 SB in 2022, 77th percentile sprint speed, and rule changes that made it easier to swipe bags, managers would have liked more SB in 2023 but instead saw a decline to just nine steals.
Swanson's projections have him stealing more in 2024, but not to the level we saw in 2022. The two-time All-Star's ATC line is projected at .252-22-82-81-12 with a wOBA of .323 and wRC+ of 103. His NFBC ADP of 128 matches his RotoBaller rank of 128 overall. The 30-year-old should be a solid contributor with a reliable floor and a small amount of upside, but it seems he is what he is at this point in his career.
-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller
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