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Mike Marteny's 2025 NCAA Tournament bold predictions for March Madness. Can this year's tournament match the chaos of last year? Mike takes a look at the possible scenarios.
The field of 68 is finally out and we are on the brink of the four greatest days in any sport in any country on any continent. The NCAA Tournament is an entirely different animal, and the first four days of this behemoth are the most fun days you'll have watching sports, even if it's by yourself!
There are always a few surprises in the tournament. Sometimes we have a tournament like last season where the first two days had more surprises than things we expected. This year will likely fall somewhere in between, but that's ok. We'll still be surprised by some things. I'm here to help figure out what. None of these may happen, but these are the things that I wanted to pick in my bracket and couldn't bring myself to do it.
In this article, I will be providing you with my bold predictions for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck, RotoBallers!
West Region Bold Predictions
Maryland makes the Final Four
This is honestly not a great draw for Florida. Florida's hot streak is the talk of the tournament, but Maryland is almost a mirror of Florida. Julian Reese and Derik Queen will be able to handle Florida's front, but Florida's guards are better.
How much better? Selton Miguel brings Final Four experience to Maryland. If Maryland gets any production from Rodney Rice, it might oust the Gators. Florida doesn't have a distinct advantage anywhere -- just the hot streak.
St. John's loses in the first weekend
Wild stat that surprises me every year
No top 2 seed that started the season unranked has ever made the Final Four.
Recent:
2024 Iowa State (2) - S16
2023 Marquette (2) - R32
2022 Arizona (1) - S16
2021 Alabama (2) - S162025 Michigan State (2) - ???
2025 St. John's (2) - ???— Ryan Hammer? (@ryanhammer09) March 17, 2025
Not only does recent history support this, but the Johnnies didn't get an easy draw. They aren't a good shooting team. If Arkansas faces them in the second round, a fresh Boogie Fland could be a problem. If it's Kansas, it is a really good rebounding team and can beat anyone when it is on.
South Region Bold Predictions
The winner of the Creighton/Louisville game beats Auburn
Creighton has a better chance of pulling the upset because of Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner on Johni Broome. If it's Louisville, it'll need to get hot from outside.
Louisville beat Clemson twice this year. Clemson is similar to Auburn, but it isn't as deep and doesn't have anyone with the talent of Broome. Auburn's slide at the end of the year shows it can be beaten. Louisville and Creighton are both underseeded.
At least three double-digit seeds win first-round games.
Per @EvanMiya, Michigan as a 5-seed is not under-seeded, however UC San Diego is perceived as under-seeded as a 12. pic.twitter.com/jTPr4jI7lq
— Tony Garcia | Detroit Free Press (@RealTonyGarcia) March 18, 2025
Look at that graph. Isn't it beautiful? It is if you like my prediction. Four teams -- UC San Diego, Yale, Bryant, and North Carolina -- are all perceived as underseeded. We'll start with Carolina. It didn't deserve to be in but is also a dangerous team. Both can be true, especially against a stone-age team like Ole Miss.
I fully expect Carolina to win another game. UC San Diego is a trendy pick for a 12-5 upset. Forget about size -- size isn't everything. San Diego is one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country. That means fewer rebounds, which is Michigan's greatest asset in getting the extra possessions it needs.
Yale took out Auburn last year. Danny Wolf moved to Michigan, but the rest of the team is still there and matches up well with an A&M team that lost four of its last six games. Lipscomb is the most dangerous 14 seed and draws an Iowa State team missing Keshon Gilbert.
New Mexico is a dangerous 10-seed. Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph match up well with Marquette's Kam Jones and David Joplin. Even the 15-seed is a live dog. Bryant almost beat St. John's this year. It is big, it can run, and it can shoot. If Michigan State is flat, it is toast.
East Region Bold Predictions
Alabama loses before the first weekend is over
Some say Robert Morris is good enough, but I don't see it. St. Mary's is, though. Alabama struggles when paced down and the Gaels excel at getting teams to play out of their comfort zones. St. Mary's is the second-slowest team in the tournament. Alabama is by far the fastest.
You may say this was true of Alabama last year and it was. However, Alabama was very efficient from beyond the arc last year. That isn't true this year. If the threes aren't falling, Alabama struggles. St. Mary's has an excellent perimeter defense. The matchup couldn't be much worse for the Tide this year.
At least three double-digit seeds win in this bracket, too
The chart above doesn't substantiate my claims as it did in the South, but VCU is one of the most underseeded teams in the tournament by that graph. It is also a mirror of BYU with better shooting.
Liberty is also a mirror of Oregon, except it is a MUCH better shooting team. Nate Bittle will be a problem in the middle, but Liberty doesn't go in the middle. It shoots more than 30 three-point shots per game and makes 39 percent of them. That's sixth in the country.
Akron loves to run, so if Arizona plays fast (as it likes to), Akron can keep up. The Zips are also a more efficient team. This game won't be decided in the middle, either, unless Arizona changes course. History says it won't.
Montana is not a great matchup for Wisconsin, but this game is in Denver and Montana plays at altitude. If Wisconsin is flat or doesn't hit outside shots, it could easily lose this game.
Midwest Region Bold Predictions
Kentucky loses in the first round again
Oakland beat Kentucky last year with good shooting. Troy will do it Princeton-style. The Trojans are almost as bad as Kentucky in shooting percentages, but they are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament. The Trojans are 10th in the nation in steals (9.4 per game) and defend the perimeter well.
Three-point shooting is the only thing that has kept Kentucky afloat. This is not an efficient team and it doesn't shoot well from anywhere else on the court. If Troy succeeds in making this an ugly game, Kentucky is out again.
A double-digit seed makes the Sweet 16
This is the toughest bracket for higher seeds except for High Point taking on a struggling Purdue team. I won't take High Point to reach this high point. Clemson or McNeese would end it for the Panthers.
So, who does that leave? Troy? Nope. Illinois would be a bad draw for Troy and Xavier is Troy with more talent. It could be that 12-seed that everyone picked to win last year but didn't -- McNeese. This is a better version than last year's McNeese team with an infinitely better draw.
More March Madness Analysis
