Starting Pitcher (SP) Fantasy Baseball Draft Values - Later-Round Sleepers, Upside Targets (2025)

February 26, 2025

RotoBaller's starting pitcher fantasy baseball draft sleepers for the later rounds of 2025 drafts. These are sneaky fantasy baseball SP value picks with upside.

Today, we're looking at some later-round starting pitcher fantasy baseball draft sleepers and draft targets for you to consider for 2025 in your season-long fantasy baseball drafts. Fantasy managers can generally wait to draft pitching in 2025, as the position is very deep this year. One common draft strategy is to draft an ace within the first five rounds and then draft some starters in the middle to late rounds.

Finding those hidden gems in the later rounds is essential, and today we list five starting pitcher draft values who could produce for your fantasy teams this season. Are their fantasy baseball ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become priority late-round starting pitcher draft targets? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2025 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2025 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more – available exclusively in our 2025 Draft Kit.

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Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz finally made his long-awaited return from Tommy John in July of 2024. His performance should give managers guarded optimism heading into 2025 fantasy drafts as the former first-rounder made 14 starts, posting a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 79 1/3 innings.

Although those were good numbers, the 6-foot-2 hurler's FIP (4.07), xFIP (4.39), and SIERA (4.33) were significantly higher than ERA, while the righty's K% of 21.6% was surprisingly below league average (22.6%). Some of that can surely be attributed to rust, and on the bright side, eight of his 14 games went down as quality starts. The last four were particularly good, recording a 2.59 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and a 25.3% K%. He tallied a 4:23 BB:K over that stretch, good for a strong 20.9% K-BB%.

Shane Baz over his last 7 starts:

43 IP
2.09 ERA
0.74 ERA
37 Kpic.twitter.com/fLQ8JkYzhk

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) September 29, 2024

Prudent managers will keep an eye on the 25-year-old's spring, but with potentially lower-than-advertised strikeouts, a modest amount of ERA regression, a career-high of 120 IP, and his environment in Tampa depressing any potential win total. Baz appears relatively fairly priced at his current NFBC ADP of 168, with RotoBaller ranking him at 174 overall.

-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

The addition of Corbin Burnes means one established starter is set to miss out on a place in the Diamondbacks rotation. While the surface numbers weren't great for Brandon Pfaadt last year, it'll be harsh if he's the odd man out.

Following a so-so introduction to the Majors in 2023, Pfaadt took a step forward in his first full season as an MLB starter last year. In 32 starts (181.2 IP), Pfaadt had an 11-10 W-L record, 4.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 185 Ks. Pfaadt's 24.3% K% was up two percentage points from 2023, and his underlying numbers point towards Pfaadt being unlucky in 2024. He had a 3.58 xFIP and 3.65 SIERA, offering hope that he could put up a sub-4.00 ERA in 2025.

Pitchers with 180+ IP and 180+ K in 2024 who currently have an ADP outside the Top 150 in 2025...

Brandon Pfaadt
Sean Manaea
Seth Lugo#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/sQuRjlBgmj

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) December 30, 2024

Pfaadt did have a .246 xBA (37th percentile) and 39.4% HardHit% (42nd percentile) last year so it's difficult to see Pfaadt reaching an SP2 status in fantasy. But Pfaadt is currently being drafted as an SP5 in 10-12 team drafts. Providing his ERA luck isn't as bad as last year, Pfaadt should have no problem being a top-40 starting pitcher this year.

-- Jamie Steed - RotoBaller

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

After a disappointing rookie season in 2023 (5.59 ERA, 4.79 FIP, and 1.39 WHIP in 104 2/3 innings), Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Taj Bradley settled down a bit in 2024. Through 25 starts, he held a 4.11 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, and 26.6% strikeout rate.

While that line is still not what you'd want from the former top pitching prospect, his undeniable talent will make him a pitcher to look out for going into the 2025 season. The strikeout stuff is apparent, with a 13.9% SwStr% and 116 Stuff+ grade vaulting his profile into the upper tiers of pitchers in the strikeout category.

Of course, an electric arm like his is still not worth the hassle in the early rounds unless his arm settles down (8.1% walk rate, 98 Location+ grade). While one would expect some natural growth in command as he moves to the next phase in his pitching development, Bradley is still worth considering in 2025.

ATC projects a 3.85 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 26.3% strikeout rate through 162 innings, which is enough to scoop him up at his relatively cheap 193 ADP.

-- Pranav Uppalapati - RotoBaller

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

Houston Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti made significant strides in the back half of the 2024 season and is set up well for a 2025 breakout. Arrighetti made his big league debut in April and posted a poor 5.63 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP before the All-Star break. During this 80-inning stint, he struck out 93 batters but served up a hefty 44 free passes. However, after the mid-summer classic, the right-hander posted a promising 3.18 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP across 65 innings. During this stretch, he tallied 75 punchouts with 21 walks.

While his fastball was not as effective as he would have hoped during his rookie campaign, Arrighetti relied heavily on his sweeper and curveball, especially during the second half of the season. His sweeper (fourth-most used pitch) generated a .104, .274, and a .105 xwOBA from June through August. His second-most used pitch, his curveball, was dominant during this stretch as it never generated an xwOBA higher than .240. In addition, these two pitches generated an xSLG of less than .190 in both July and August.

These two pitches also generated the highest whiff rates in his pitch mix, with the curveball leading the way with an impressive 42.4% rate. Cutter is projecting Arrighetti with a (10-10) record, 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts over 167 innings.

While Arrighetti will still need an improved fastball to take the next step, his secondary pitches took significant strides at the end of the summer. Fantasy managers who are looking to find a high-upside starting pitcher should target him at his 218.74 ADP on the NFBC.

-- Andy Smith - RotoBaller

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

Injuries limited Detroit Tigers right-hander Jackson Jobe to 91 2/3 innings in 2024, but that was a career-best mark. He posted a 2.36 ERA with 96 strikeouts and 45 walks, earning his MLB promotion at season's end. With the Tigers, Jobe tossed four relief innings without allowing a run.

The fastball sits in the mid-to-upper 90s with plenty of carry-up in the zone, averaging over 17 inches of IVB from a 6'0" release height. It touches triple-digits and shows impressive traits, making it a plus offering. Jobe's slider is his best pitch, sitting around 82 mph with a ton of sweeping action with spin rates up to 3,200 RPM. The pitch gets anywhere from 12-17 inches of horizontal movement and misses bats at a high clip.

MLB's No. 5 prospect Jackson Jobe enters 2025 with 10 K/9 in his pro career, and he's still adding to his arsenal.

The #Tigers' top prospect showed up to camp with a new pitch that is "fooling hitters": https://t.co/PwBuJpuXzv pic.twitter.com/S9MGnbpRTg

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) February 21, 2025

Jobe added a cutter to bridge the velocity gap between the fastball and slider, sitting around 90 mph with good carry and five inches of horizontal movement. One of Jobe's biggest progressions in the last two seasons was the development of his changeup. The pitch sits 84-85 mph with nice depth and consistently 15 inches of fade. It was his best swing-and-miss pitch in 2024.

This offseason, Jobe added a sinker and a curveball. The Alex Cobb (hip) injury means Jobe should be in the rotation out of camp in 2025.

-- Chris Clegg - RotoBaller

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