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Las Vegas Raiders WR Henry Ruggs III is a fantasy football sleeper and breakout candidate in 2021 fantasy football. Tommy A. breaks down Ruggs' value as an undervalued wide receiver on draft day.
Henry Ruggs III was the first receiver picked in the 2020 draft to the surprise of many. Although he didn't live up to expectations in his rookie season, there are reasons for optimism when it comes to the speedy Raiders wideout. Going into year two, Ruggs is ready to take on a bigger role, and the Raiders will need him to do exactly that.
With the departure of Nelson Agholor, 82 targets have been vacated in the Las Vegas offense. Ruggs’ competition for targets will be between fellow sophomore Bryan Edwards, slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, and speedster John Brown at the wide receiver position.
In 2020, Darren Waller was the first option in the passing game (146 targets), and will remain the primary target this season. Even though Waller will have a massive target share, it is still realistic to think that Ruggs can approach 90 targets with the departure of Agholor.
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Increased Role In The Offense
After missing three full games in 2020, Ruggs had 43 targets in a season where he had no offseason to learn the playbook and no preseason to get accustomed to pro football. With a full offseason this year, Ruggs has made it known that he is more comfortable in the offense and has way more confidence than he did as a rookie.
#Raiders’ Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards making big strides at training camp
via @TheAthletic https://t.co/j5SRzmoRcW
— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) August 4, 2021
Ruggs has put on 13 pounds of added weight this offseason as he wants to have a more versatile role in the offense. Expanding his route tree has been his main focus, with an emphasis being put on short route running. If Ruggs can improve his short routes, head coach Jon Gruden can utilize him like he was at Alabama. Last year, Ruggs was used exclusively as a field stretcher and almost every one of his targets was a deep shot, while the volume and efficiency are there to support more deep ball attempts to Ruggs in 2021.
With an average target distance (aDOT) of 17.4, Ruggs ranked second among all players in this category. Derek Carr ranked eighth in deep ball attempts (passes 20+ yards downfield) with 65 (4.1p/g) and had the 10th- highest deep ball completion percentage with 44.6% while posting the second-highest grade on throws 20+ yards downfield in 2020. The deep ball attempts are great for fantasy owners, but with a projected increase in targets, Ruggs will need to be used more in all facets of the offense.
The Raiders, who beat the defending Super Bowl champions, were in need of a miracle to beat a winless Jets team.
Derek Carr and Henry Ruggs delivered.
📺 CBSpic.twitter.com/Ttf4tgcy5P
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 6, 2020
Ruggs using the short passing game to get the ball in his hands will also help the deep passing game. He was third in the NFL in the average cushion given by a defender with 4.48. Compare this to Tyreek Hill, who had an average cushion of 3.75 (57th in the NFL). You would think the fastest player in the NFL would have the highest average cushion, but Hill is used in the short passing game as well. In 2020, Hill had an average target distance of 13.0 which ranked #26 in the NFL. If the average cushion a defender can give Ruggs is decreased because of the short passing game, then Ruggs will have a much easier time burning them on deep pass attempts.
In 2019, Curtis Samuel had an average cushion of 5.19, which was the third-highest in the NFL. In 2020, it was down to 4.06, which was 21st in the NFL. The reason for the drop in the average cushion is the drop in aDOT, which went from 14.4 to 7.2. This not only helped Samuel in the short game but also in the deep passing game. In 2020, Samuel had the highest passer rating when targeted 20+ yards downfield, and had a career-high in receptions and receiving yards.
2021 Outlook
Ruggs is going to have an increased role in 2021, that is a given. The Raiders have invested significant draft capital in the speedy wideout, meaning they foresee him being a big part of what the team wants to do on offense. This year, every target that he gets is not going to be a deep shot because getting the ball into his hands will be more of a priority. When you look at some of his comparable players, you can see how much easier it is for them to be successful when they are used in a versatile role as a receiver.
There is little risk in Ruggs with his average draft position of 127. Picks in this range do not hold much value and are typically considered to be a dart throw anyways. He is an intriguing late-round flier and has all the necessary tools to be a dynamic playmaker in the NFL. If given the opportunity, which it seems that he will be - Ruggs can have a breakout season in 2021.
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