10 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - Kevin Luo's 2025 Picks

March 26, 2025

Kevin Luo's ten fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Matt Wallner, Cam Smith, Hayden Birdsong, and more.

March is upon us. The flowers are blooming, the birds are chirping, and we still have immense optimism about the guys on our fantasy baseball teams (unless you drafted Gerrit Cole [elbow]). If you can't believe in a player now, when can you? So...

"Say what you want to say, and let the words fall out. Honestly, I wanna see you be brave." Thank you, Sara Bareilles - that is what I hope to be when I make my bold predictions for this upcoming fantasy baseball season.

For more of our staff's bold predictions, check out some other articles in our Bold Predictions series.

Elly De La Cruz Wins NL MVP

It feels like a pretty bold prediction to pick anyone other than Shohei Ohtani to win the NL MVP. The reigning league MVP and inaugural member of the 50/50 club will also be back on the mound at some point this season. However, it feels like it might be a bit of a weird season for Ohtani.

It's very unlikely that Ohtani will steal as much as he did last season, especially when he returns to the mound. And how much will he even pitch this season?

He's going to be doing his pitching rehab while being the Dodgers' most important hitter, something that no other pitcher has had to do. It's a safe assumption that the Dodgers will be extremely cautious with Ohtani's workload all year, which will make him slightly less valuable all around, opening the door for other players to win the award.

So why Elly? While we all know De La Cruz has been one of the most exciting players in baseball since he made his debut, he has been both extremely productive and flawed. Baseball fans and fantasy baseball players are very aware of Elly's biggest flaw thus far in his career: Plate discipline.

However, despite striking out 31.3 percent of the time last season, Elly still accumulated 6.4 fWAR and finished eighth in MVP voting last season.

Overall, spring training stats should be taken with a massive grain of salt. However, swing changes and improved plate skills are something that fantasy players should be taking into consideration when evaluating hitters in the spring.

Elly's 234 WRC+ this spring doesn't matter that much, but his new swing looks like it will matter. Compared to last season, he appears to be standing more upright with a shorter swing and lighter leg kick. This has resulted in a 22.9 percent strikeout rate and an 18.8 percent walk rate this spring.

👀 The swing looks noticeably shorter this spring from Elly De La Cruz, which is really encouraging. https://t.co/mEmVCAW6eb

— George Bissell (@GeorgeBissell) February 26, 2025

Since his days as a prospect, I've always thought that Elly could be one of the best players in baseball if he cut his strikeout rate to the mid-20s. Strikeouts will likely always be a part of Elly's game, but this new swing and an improved approach will allow him to get the most out of his massive speed and raw power tools.

Expect an emergence into superstardom for Elly this season, as he has 30 HRs, 70 SBs, nine fWAR, and a .900 OPS in 2025.

Brandon Lowe Finishes As A Top-5 2B

After Mookie Betts and Ketel Marte, second base feels very open this season. Brandon Lowe feels like a sleeper in plain sight who can jump into that next tier if he's able to stay healthy (I know, big if).

He's currently going off as the 17th 2B in ADP despite his offensive upside this season. Since his debut in 2018, Lowe has been third in WRC+ among qualified 2B. We've also seen him hit 39 HRs in a season. He's done this while playing half of his games in one of the worst home ballparks for offense, Tropicana Field.

This season, the Rays will be playing their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, where they'll have the short porch in right field that has brought a lot of joy to left-handed batters in Yankee Stadium, plus the humid Florida heat to add some extra carry to fly balls.

Yankee Stadium has the third-best HR park factor for left-handed hitters compared to the Trop, which was 24th.

A fear for anyone drafting a Rays left-handed bat is that they are known for platooning. However, Lowe should be one of the safer left-handed bats in their lineup for everyday at-bats, as he has a career .737 OPS vs. lefties and has the versatility to play 1B and OF if needed.

While he likely won't steal more than a handful of bases, expect another 35+ HR season with a solid slash line for Lowe.

Clay Holmes Outperforms Every Yankees Starting Pitcher

I don't think any player felt the wrath of Yankee social media last year more than Clay Holmes. Holmes blew an MLB-high 13 saves last season, and every time he came into the game, you could feel a collective increase in heart rate coming from the Bronx.

However, David Stearns and the Mets pitching lab saw something in Holmes that made them believe he'd be a good starter. Last season, the Mets turned lemons into lemonade in a big way with their pitching staff, helping to revive the careers of Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.

While converting relievers to starters appears to be the new craze across the MLB, there haven't been obvious signs in Holmes' career that he could become a good starter, so many eyes have been on him this spring. Again, spring training stats should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's very hard not to be impressed with what Holmes has done so far this spring. He has a 0.93 ERA and 23 Ks in 19.1 IP.

He struck out eight in five 1/3 scoreless innings in his last spring start, showing he has the ability to go relatively deep into games. He's also developed a new weapon in the spring's hottest new pitch, the "kick-change." His kick-change has been a whiff machine all spring and should help keep left-handed hitters off balance.

Clay Holmes has been tracked by Statcast in four of his five spring starts.

His kick change whiff % in those four games is 59.1 percent. #Mets https://t.co/lrAOZlLxH0

— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) March 21, 2025

Along with a belief in Holmes' upside as a starter, this prediction is also a bit of a bet against the Yankees rotation.

We've already seen that their ace, Gerrit Cole, needs Tommy John surgery. Luis Gil (lat) will miss a few months with a lat injury. Clarke Schmidt (shoulder) is starting the year on the IL. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon have also each missed time over the last couple of years.

Seeing Juan Soto in a Mets uniform will be rough enough for Yankees fans this season but Clay Holmes emerging as a frontline starter (like Michael King) might have them crashing out.

Cam Smith Wins AL ROY

This prediction has the chance to look much less bold in a couple of weeks, but Cam Smith currently has the ninth-highest betting odds to take home this award (+1500). After being drafted 14th overall in last summer's MLB Draft, no one could've predicted that he would be on the precipice of the majors this quickly.

However, he is firmly kicking down the door by raking at every stop of his professional career. Smith had a 179 wRC+ across three levels of the minors last season (Low-A, High-A, Double-A) and has a 208 wRC+ so far this spring.

Along with his impressive start to his professional career, Smith is in an ideal situation to put up big numbers this season. While the Astros still have a pretty strong top of their lineup, they are looking for more firepower to replace Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman.

Even though he's not currently penciled into the lineup, it looks increasingly likely that Smith will break camp with the big league squad. He has played a few spring games in the outfield, and Chas McCormick does not serve as a strong roadblock standing in his way.

Smith will also get the benefit of playing half of his games at Daikin Park, where the Crawford Boxes will serve as a nice target for his right-handed power. If he spends the majority of the season in the majors, expect Smith to have a .270 average and 25+ HRs, a line that will be tough to beat in the ROY race.

"Wonder-Unc" Jurickson Profar Proves 2024 Was No Fluke, Finishes Again As Top-15 OF

While it may not seem that bold to predict that Jurickson Profar can repeat his success last season, the fantasy baseball community seems to think Profar's Post-Post-Post Hype Breakout was fool's gold.

Despite finishing as the 11th-rated OF in standard 5x5 roto on ESPN's Player Rater and the 10th-highest scoring OF in CBS Standard PPG, his current ADP is OF44.

MLB Pipeline's No. 1 overall prospect in 2013 spent the first decade of his career failing to live up to his prospect hype, never posting an OPS over .800, a wRC+ over 113, or more than 2.4 fWAR. However, he broke out in a big way in 2024. He set career highs in HR (24), BA (.280), OBP (.380), OPS (.839), WRC+ (139), and fWAR (4.3).

While you should generally be suspicious of late-career breakouts like this, Profar's breakout was primarily driven by a swing change that made him hit the ball much harder.

He opened his stance and incorporated a leg lift, which unlocked his lower half and helped him gain more power. In 2024, his 91.1 mph average exit velocity (80th percentile) and 44.4 percent hard-hit rate (71st percentile) were career highs by a significant margin.

His prior career highs in these metrics were in 2022 when he had an 87.5 mph average exit velocity (22nd percentile) and a 34.3 percent hard-hit rate (19th percentile).

This improved quality of contact, in conjunction with Profar's solid plate skills (16.1 percent career strikeout rate, 10.0 percent career walk rate), should result in another strong year.

When you add in the fact that he'll be hitting in a better home ballpark (Atlanta ranks 17th in park factor vs. San Diego ranks 29th) in the loaded Braves lineup, he is an absolute steal where he's going in drafts this year.

Multiple Giants Break The 30-HR Drought

While the injury to Jerar Encarnacion (hand) makes this prediction a bit less fun, the Giants still have three strong candidates who could break the team's 30 HR drought in 2025. Once the home park of the greatest home run hitter in MLB history, Oracle Park in San Francisco has been an extremely tough place for hitters to hit home runs for quite some time.

It is dead last in the league in HR Park Factor. Despite the tough home ballpark, it's still one of the craziest active team stats in the sport that the Giants have not had a 30-HR hitter since Barry Bonds in 2004.

So, who can break the streak this season? The first candidate is Heliot Ramos. While he started last season in the minors, he quickly emerged as one of San Francisco's best players when he got the call in early May.

In 121 games, he hit 22 HRs. He could be on the doorstep of 30 HRs just by playing an extra quarter of the season in 2025. However, some of his underlying metrics signal that he could be emerging as one of the game's best young sluggers.

Last year, he had a 14.5 percent barrel rate (92nd percentile) and a .481 xSLG (90th percentile). He also has one of the league's most optimal swings for power.

I just put together a very simple "Swing Score" for myself. Four evenly-weighted inputs: BatSpeed, HardSwing%, Squared Up%, and Swing Length. Ramos ranks 7th in 2024 SwingScore among hitters with 100+ swings last year, between Acuña and Ohtani. Juan Soto is ranked 1st.

— Foolish Baseball (@FoolishBB) December 19, 2024

The other two 30 HR candidates for the Giants are Willy Adames and Matt Chapman. Both veteran infielders have had 30 HR seasons in previous stops, including 32 for Adames last season in Milwaukee. While it's suboptimal for any hitter to try to hit HRs at Oracle Park, neither guy's power profile is too negatively affected by hitting there.

Adames had an xHR of 31 if he played all of his games last season at Oracle Park. Since 2021, Chapman has hit 98 HRs, but his xHR at Oracle Park would've been 108, including 36 in 2021. Between Ramos, Adames, and Chapman, this 30-HR drought is destined to be broken this season. Speaking of the Giants...

Hayden Birdsong Finishes As A Top-40 SP

I'm writing this as my cat sits next to me and watches bird videos on my iPad, so this prediction is inspired by her. Hayden Birdsong got the call to the majors in the middle of last season after having a 2.51 ERA and striking out 31.1 percent of the batters he faced in 13 starts across Double-A and Triple-A.

His first few starts in the majors were solid but relatively uneventful. Then, he had two starts against the Rockies that really put fantasy players on notice. He gave up two earned runs across 11 innings in the two starts and had 20 punchouts.

Unfortunately, Birdsong was incredibly inconsistent the rest of the season due to poor command and control. He was in the first percentile for both walk rate and hard-hit rate last season. He finished his rookie season in the majors with a 4.75 ERA across 72 innings, and it looked like he might not be able to stick as a starter in the future.

However, Birdsong looks like a totally different pitcher this spring. Perhaps it's due to some tutelage from new teammate Justin Verlander (who many have compared Birdsong's style to). According to reports, Verlander advised him to move over to the third base side of the mound.

While this may seem like a small tweak, it is clearly working for Birdsong. Through 12 spring innings (an incredibly small sample), he has a 0.50 ERA, 18 strikeouts (41.9 percent strikeout rate), and, most importantly, ZERO WALKS.

The Giants might realize some value simply by having Justin Verlander as a second pitching coach. Hayden Birdsong moved more toward the third base side of the mound in camp due in part to a suggestion from Verlander. Birdsong has not walked a batter in 12 innings this spring. https://t.co/kAxVQW0uOK

— Jeff Young (@BaseballJeff1) March 18, 2025

No one is going to confuse Hayden Birdsong with George Kirby. He will likely always have some command issues. However, the swing-and-miss stuff is incredibly real and nasty. He had an 82nd-percentile whiff rate and 83rd-percentile strikeout rate, which are both very impressive for a rookie starter.

UPDATE: Unfortunately, Hayden Birdsong will be starting the season in the Giants bullpen. Landen Roupp won the fifth starter job. Fell to my knees in Target when I saw this news as it was reported earlier in the weekend that Birdsong would win the job.

While this hurts Birdsong's full year impact a bit, his opportunity should arise soon. An injury to Robbie Ray or Justin Verlander could open the door for Birdsong but more likely struggles from Roupp or an end to the Jordan Hicks starter experiment will give him his opportunity.

When that opportunity arises, expect Birdsong to take it and run with it if he continues to keep the walks in check and learn to refine his craft from the veterans in that rotation (Verlander, Ray, Logan Webb). The sophomore year breakout is coming for him. It's just slightly delayed.

Sebastian Walcott Makes His MLB Debut At Age 19

This prediction doesn't really have much impact on any of your upcoming redraft drafts unless you're looking for a late upside pick in draft-and-hold leagues. However, there are few things more exciting in the fantasy baseball community than when a top prospect makes his MLB debut.

After a disappointing follow-up season to their 2023 World Series title, the Texas Rangers will be looking for any boosts to their roster as they make their playoff push.

Walcott, their top prospect, spent most of last season in High-A, where he was the youngest player at the level. He had a strong season, especially considering he got off to a very slow start, finishing his stint at High-A with a 123 wRC+ before getting a cup of coffee at Double-A, where he didn't look out of place at all (172 wRC+ over five games).

This spring, he spent a lot of time in a big league camp, where he was mentored by Marcus Semien. He also showed he belonged on the field, hitting a homer and reaching base in half of his 10 PAs.

While there isn't an obvious place for Walcott to play right now on the Rangers, an opportunity will arise for him if he performs in the high minors. Whether he's an injury replacement for Josh Jung or Corey Seager or the weak side platoon partner for Joc Pederson at DH, the Rangers will be a better team at the end of the season with Walcott on the roster.

Expect him to perform well in the high minors and get the call to the majors, but maintain his rookie eligibility for 2026 when he will be the top fantasy prospect.

Matt Wallner Hits 10 More Home Runs Than Any Other Twin

A person's opinion on Matt Wallner might be the perfect litmus test for whether they are an old-school or new-school baseball fan. Wallner strikes out a ton, but when he makes contact, he hits the ball hard and far.

He's the definition of a three-true outcome player. Despite striking out 34.5 percent of the time so far in his major league career, Wallner has been quietly very productive with a career 144 wRC+.

Following a good 2023 partial season in the majors (143 wRC+), Wallner was expected to make another leap in 2024. Early in the season, it was looking like he might not be a major leaguer for much longer as he had a 60 wRC+ and, struck out over 50 percent of the time in the first few weeks and got himself sent down to the minors.

However, after he got called back up to the majors on July 7, he had the ninth-highest wRC+ for the rest of the season among qualified hitters (169 wRC+).

Looking under the hood a bit more, Wallner's quality of contact metrics is that of one of the best power hitters in the league. He had a 17.5 percent barrel rate in 2024, which would be the sixth-highest in the league if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. His 53.2 percent hard-hit rate would be the 13th-highest, and his 92.8 mph average exit velocity would be the 15th-highest.

Wallner has a little less than a full season's worth of PA (580) under his belt in his MLB career and has 29 career HRs. Even if he sits against some lefties, it looks like he'll get plenty of opportunity this season to surpass that number as the Twins are taking the Kyle Schwarber leadoff approach and leading Wallner off against righties.

He has six HRs this spring, and 35+ for him this season is not out of the question.

Regarding the other side of this bold prediction, the Twins don't seem to have many gaudy home run totals in their lineup.

Their leading HR hitter in 2024, Carlos Santana, hit 23 and is now in Cleveland. Ryan Jeffers was the only other Twin to hit over 20. Three of their stars (Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis [hamstring]) that they're hoping to have big power numbers are all likely to spend some time on the IL (Lewis is already there).

The West Sacramento (?) Athletics Will Make The Playoffs

Well, that was a very weird sentence to type. I write this bold prediction with a lot of sympathy for the fans of the franchise formerly known as the Oakland Athletics. John Fisher and the ownership group were notoriously cheap, trading away any and every star of the team the last few years to save money and collect prospects.

Now that the team is moving to Sacramento (and eventually to Las Vegas), Fisher wants to spend money and care about the success of the team.

However, it's undeniable that this Athletics team is pretty fun and, dare I say, good. Everything starts with the two stars that broke out this past season, Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker.

They're one of the top offensive duos in the league. From June 18 until the end of the season (when Butler was recalled from the minors), Butler and Rooker were two of the top nine hitters in the league by wRC+ (178 for Rooker, 153 for Butler).

They combined for 46 HRs during this period and over seven fWAR. Both guys received contract extensions this offseason and should be the faces of the Athletics moving forward.

Along with Rooker and Butler, they have an array of emerging young bats. After a few years of looking like a high first-round bust, JJ Bleday now looks like their CF of the future after he had a very strong season with a 120 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR. Jacob Wilson, their 2023 first-round pick, had a 200 wRC+ in the upper minors last year across Double-A and Triple-A.

He's known as a contact first hitter (with strikeout rates around 10 percent), but fantasy players are keeping a watchful eye on his power development as he's already hit four long balls this spring.

Nick Kurtz, their 2024 first-round pick, has been one of the top 2024 draftees thus far in their professional career, along with Cam Smith. He should make a big impact on the team this year after having a 230 wRC+ across Low-A and Double-A last year.

Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, and Colby Thomas should also provide value to this quietly exciting lineup.

Regarding their rotation, this is where the front office appears to be showing that they want to try to contend. They signed Luis Severino to the franchise's largest free-agent contract and traded for Jeffrey Springs this offseason to anchor their rotation.

These two, along with JP Sears and Osvaldo Bido, won't be world-beaters but should be solid enough to support their emerging offense and get games to their bullpen, which is anchored by one of the best closers in the league, Mason Miller.

Along with the Athletics' emerging young talent and sudden commitment to contention, their playoff path looks better since most other contenders in the American League got worse this season.

The Yankees lost Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole (elbow). The Orioles lost Corbin Burnes and now Grayson Rodriguez (elbow) is injured. The Guardians traded away Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez. The Astros lost Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Yusei Kikuchi. The Mariners made no big moves, and George Kirby (shoulder) is injured.

There is a lot of opportunity for the Athletics to fight their way into the playoffs this year, and they're talented enough to make it happen.

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