2024 Fantasy Football Sleeper Candidate - Ja'Lynn Polk, Wide Receiver

May 11, 2024

Phil Clark's fantasy football analysis for wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk. Is this NFL rookie wide receiver a 2024 fantasy football sleeper candidate?

After months of speculation, rumors, continual examinations of statistics, and a collection of mock drafts, we finally witnessed the results of this year’s NFL Draft. A myriad of factors contributed to the massive buildup of this year’s draft process, representing a major step in shaping the pathway for each newcomer’s imminent arrival into the NFL landscape.

The results of this year’s draft have established the draft capital for each first-year player, while also eviscerating all uncertainty regarding their landing spots. That includes the 2024 class of wide receivers, which contains an extensive level of depth and talent. An encouraging number of these newcomers should also become roster assets this season.

Seven wide receivers were taken during Round 1 of the NFL Draft, which tied the record for the most first-round selections at the position. Four additional receivers were drafted during Round 2, including Ja'Lynn Polk, who New England selected with the 37th overall pick. Polk’s stock is now ascending, as he is positioned to secure a significant role within the Patriots’ aerial attack. His involvement in New England's reconstructed offense should also accelerate his timeline toward operating as a resource for fantasy managers.

Ja'Lynn Polk NFL Rookie Profile

Team: New England Patriots 
College: Texas Tech/Washington
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 203 pounds
Age: 21
Arm Length: 31 3/4”
Hand Size: 9 3/4”
2024 NFL Draft: Round: 2, Pick 37

Path to a Second-Round Selection

Polk played football and basketball at Lufkin High School (Texas). This added him to a list of notable Lufkin alumni who have progressed into the NFL, including Dez Bryant. Polk finished his four seasons with 131 receptions and 2,412 receiving yards, the second-highest totals in school history. He also collected 24 touchdowns during his career, which placed him third.

He eclipsed 600+ receiving yards during his sophomore and junior seasons, collecting 77 receptions and producing 15 touchdowns. Polk also accumulated 54 receptions, 1,050 yards, and nine touchdowns as a senior, while averaging 19.4 yards per reception. He also garnered third-team All-State honors from the Texas Sports Writers Association.

2020 WR Ja’Lynn Polk (@jpolk_22) moves the chains. Has offers from Arkansas, Baylor, Texas Tech and others. pic.twitter.com/5aTcu3tf6w

— "EJ Holland" (@EJHollandOn3) May 14, 2019

Polk emerged as a three-star recruit, receiving offers from Arkansas, Baylor, Houston, Illinois, Kansas, Kansas State, Memphis, Minnesota, Nevada, Southern Miss, and Tulane -- before enrolling at Texas Tech in January 2020.

Ascending Numbers at Washington

🔴Up Ŧop⚫️

Welcome @jpolk_22 to the Red Raider family!#Ŧ20 | #WreckEm pic.twitter.com/tdVum1Mx9v

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) December 18, 2019

Polk promptly played in all 10 of the Red Raiders’ matchups during his first season, starting seven contests and collecting 38 targets. He finished fourth on the team in receptions (28) and became the first true freshman at Texas Tech to accrue at least five receptions in a season opener since Michael Crabtree (2007). Polk was also fourth on the team in receiving yards (264) and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (two).

Washington lands Texas Tech transfer WR Ja’Lynn Polk.

Polk is 6-2 with a 35 inch vertical and excels at making contested catches over DB’s.

As a True Freshman, Polk caught 28 passes for 264 yards and 2 TD’s

pic.twitter.com/FwQZytHDxl

— WestCoastCFB (@WestCoastCFB) February 3, 2021

Polk entered the transfer portal in January 2021 and transferred to Washington one week later. He registered a reception on the initial play of his first game with the Huskies in 2021. Unfortunately, he also sustained a dislocated clavicle on that play, which sidelined him for nine games. He ultimately returned to complete a truncated season while being limited to three games, seven targets, five receptions, and 114 yards.

However, the presence of Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan did not preclude Polk from collecting 110 of his 179 targets during 2022-2023. Polk also generated 1,853 yards (66.2 per game), averaged 10.35 yards per target, and produced 15 touchdowns.

Polk played in all 13 of Washington's matchups in 2022 and finished third behind Odunze and McMillan in targets (68/5.2 per game) and receptions (41/3.2 per game). Polk also averaged 4.0 receptions per game during his final five contests and 20.1 yards per reception during his last four games.

He was third in receiving yards (694/53.4 per game), including four matchups in which he eclipsed 80+, and the career-high 153 he stockpiled against Michigan State. Polk also generated a career-best three touchdowns against the Spartans, which expanded his season total to six.

Polk’s usage and output increased during 2023, as he played in 15 contests, collected 111 targets (7.4 per game), and secured 10+ in five different outings.

How did Ja'Lynn Polk make that catch⁉️ pic.twitter.com/OU6l5BPRsi

— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) September 24, 2023

Polk finished second on the Huskies in receptions (69/4.6 per game) and captured at least five in eight consecutive games. He was also second in receiving yards (1,159/77.3 per game), which was also the sixth-highest total in school history.

Polk was second on the team in receiving touchdowns (nine) while averaging 2.29 yards per route run and 5.2 yards after catch per reception and securing an aDOT of 13.8, according to PFF.

Michael Penix Jr. finds Ja’Lynn Polk for a 92-yard touchdown 🎯
pic.twitter.com/XLG2Q9jfQ2

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 29, 2023

Performance at the NFL Combine

Polk joined 38 other wide receivers at the NFL Combine, and his overall performance sustained his surge toward an eventual second-round selection.

. ⁦@UW_Football⁩ WR Ja’Lynn Polk just ran a 4.52 in his second 40 at the NFL Combine… #GoHuskies #PurpleReign ⁦@Dawgman247⁩ ⁦@CoachShephard⁩ ⁦@KimGrinolds⁩ ⁦@Chris_Fetters⁩ pic.twitter.com/FCk1EQsUOi

— Scott Eklund (@ScottEklund) March 2, 2024

Polk competed the 40-yard dash in 4.52 while tying for fourth with a 1.52 10-yard split. He also tied for sixth in the broad jump (10’9”) and registered 37.5” in the vertical jump.

Polk achieved a favorable RAS (Relative Athletic Score), a metric created by Kent Lee Platte. RAS incorporates all categories measured at the NFL Combine, comparing the athleticism of players in the same position.

Polk’s RAS of 8.85 out of a possible 10.00 placed him inside the top 400 among 3,400+ wide receivers since 1987.

Ja'Lynn Polk is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 8.85 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 393 out of 3402 WR from 1987 to 2024. https://t.co/eIPVt0o1Gk pic.twitter.com/JJOdlfkJx4

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 17, 2024

The results attained in Indianapolis, blended with his favorable attributes, fueled a path toward becoming the 10th wide receiver selected during the NFL Draft. 

Opportunity to Thrive in New England 

Weaponizing the offense.@jpolk_22 | @UW_Football pic.twitter.com/dd3qWBnPZO

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) April 27, 2024

Polk was the third rookie receiver to secure Round 2 draft capital. He joins the list of 49 wide receivers that have been taken in Round 2 since 2015, including A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, D.K. Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Christian Watson, Curtis Samuel, and Michael Thomas.

That development is significant since receivers picked during Day 2 are more likely to capture targets when contrasted with players who failed to attain that same level of investment. This also affects their prospects of becoming critical resources for fantasy managers.

The specific factors within each landing spot will also impact each player's potential to perform effectively in their new environment. Particularly in terms of how sizable of an opportunity they will garner to operate with a significant role, and how quickly that might occur.

pic.twitter.com/3G9SUbtZYi

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 11, 2024

A new era in New England.

Congratulations, Head Coach Jerod Mayo! pic.twitter.com/Aj87oTu2S2

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 12, 2024

The selection of Polk by New England comes as the franchise advances through the offseason without the involvement of Bill Belichick for the first time since Belichick joined the organization in January 2000.

The monumental transformation of the Patriots on and off the field includes the progression from Belichick to new head coach Jerod Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.

Offseason renovations have also involved modifications to the roster. This will fuel a substantial transition within New England’s offense in the aftermath of dismal results during 2023. The Patriots ranked 30th in total offense (276.2 yards per game) while finishing 28th in passing (180.5 yards per game) and tying with Carolina for 31st in scoring (13.9 points per game). 

Polk will be infused into a reconstructed receiving arsenal, as the team will also advance into the season with a complete overhaul at quarterback. Former first-round pick Mac Jones was replaced by Bailey Zappe in Week 12, which signaled the eventual conclusion of his tenure with the team.

Jones registered career lows in multiple categories during 2023, including yards per game (192.7), yards per attempt (6.1), air yards per attempt (5.2), and completion percentage (64.9%), while also manufacturing a 10:12 touchdown to interception ratio.

Zappe did not perform sufficiently to warrant consideration as the Patriots starter in 2024. This led to New England’s selection of Drake Maye as the third overall pick during the NFL Draft.

The guy.@DrakeMaye2 | @NFL

📺: #PatsDraft on NFLN pic.twitter.com/WCtyfF5gtN

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) April 26, 2024

The Patriots also signed eight-year veteran Jacoby Brissett to a one-year contract in March. The 31-year-old should spearhead the offense until Maye is elevated into the starting role. The signal-caller who ultimately emerges under center will distribute targets to an arsenal of wide receivers. This includes veterans from last year's roster, Polk, fourth-round selection Javon Baker, and former Viking K.J. Osborn.

New England ranked 20th in PFF’s final 2023 offensive line rankings. However, the Patriots made several selections that should bolster the unit during the NFL Draft. Tackle Caedan Wallace was secured in Round 3 (68th overall) after accumulating 40 career starts at right tackle for Penn State. Wallace also allowed 13 total pressures during his 359 pass-blocking snaps, according to PFF. Guard Layden Robinson was taken in Round 4 (103) after operating as a starter at right guard for three seasons at Texas A&M. He yielded six sacks while playing on 1,206 career pass-blocking snaps.

Competition for Targets

Polk is positioned to quickly seize a critical role within New England's restructured aerial attack that entered the offseason with a definitive need for difference-makers.

No Patriot wide receiver was inside the top 50 in targets or receptions during 2023 while none finished among the top 60 in receiving yards. New England also failed to secure a playmaking presence during free agency as Osborn was the only addition to the Patriots’ depth chart.

Demario Douglas finished his rookie season as the team leader in most receiving categories, including routes run (357), targets (79/5.6 per game), receptions (49/3.5 per game), receiving yards (561/40.1 per game), yards after catch (340), and air yards (641).

Demario Douglas may not be big but he compensates with incredible hands and a surprising catch radius.#Patriots pic.twitter.com/kINxpJGjCe

— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) November 5, 2023

Douglas operated from the slot on 76.7% of his snaps and accumulated his numbers despite being sidelined during three matchups (concussion). However, Douglas also failed to register a touchdown, contributing to his finish of just 65th in points per game (7.7).

Kendrick Bourne was leading the Patriots in routes run (224), targets (55/6.9 per game), receptions 37 (4.6 per game), and receiving yards 406 (50.8 per game) before he sustained a torn ACL in Week 8. He also paced the team in yards per route run (1.81) and air yards (530) during that sequence.

New England re-signed Bourne to a three-year contract in March. However, he will turn 29 in August and will be contending with increased competition for opportunities due to the arrival of Polk and Javon Baker.

The Patriots eschewed their opportunity to re-sign Jakobi Meyers during the 2023 offseason while opting to secure JuJu Smith-Schuster with a three-year contract. Unfortunately, that decision yielded forgettable results.

Smith-Schuster was relegated to the lowest per-game averages of his career in targets (4.3), receptions (2.6), receiving yards (23.6), yards per target (5.5), and yards after catch per reception (3.2). He did not exceed 33 yards during nine of his 11 matchups, failing to surpass two receptions in six contests. 

Javon Baker: 21.9 yards per reception in 2023, 1st among all draft eligible WRs 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ej6sQrtqLy

— PFF NE Patriots (@PFF_Patriots) April 27, 2024

Baker became the 18th member of this year’s rookie class to be selected during the NFL Draft when New England secured him in Round 4 (110th overall). The 6-foot-1, 195-pound Baker accumulated 204 targets, 117 receptions, 2,051 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns during his collegiate career. However, those numbers were largely accrued after he transferred from Alabama to Central Florida in June 2022.

Baker collected 108 of his 192 targets while assembling 1,935 yards and generating 12 touchdowns with the Knights. He led all wide receivers in yards per reception (21.9) in 2023, according to PFF, while finishing fourth in yards per route run (3.21) and tying for 18th in aDOT (17.1).

Javon Baker is about to bring this to Gillette Stadium 🔥 pic.twitter.com/sU3T4D6Gco

— Boston Cream 🍩 (@itsbostoncream) April 30, 2024

Baker completed the 40-yard dash in 4.54 and cannot operate with long speed. However, he is adept at securing separation and possesses favorable ball-tracking capabilities. This could provide his path toward becoming an effective downfield presence.

The Patriots also signed Osborn to a one-year contract in March. He accumulated 247 targets (4.2 per game), 158 receptions (2.7 per game), and 1,845 receiving yards (31.3 per game) during his four seasons with Minnesota.

Osborn’s target shares (14.3/14.1/13.0) and air yards shares (18.9/15.5/14.5) have steadily declined since 2021, as have his averages in points per game (9.3/9.2/7.5).

He is not a candidate to operate as anything beyond a WR3 for the Patriots. It is also unlikely that he can attain that level of production while competing for targets with Polk, Baker, and Douglas.

Patriots have too many WRs, so someone has got to go

Kendrick Bourne
K.J. Osborn
Demario Douglas
Ja'Lynn Polk
Javon Baker
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Tyquan Thornton
Jalen Reagor

— Mark Daniels (@ByMarkDaniels) April 27, 2024

New England’s burgeoning depth chart also contains Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor, and Kayshon Boutte. However, it is reasonable to expect several receivers to be extracted from the equation before Week 1.

Smith-Schuster has now emerged atop the list of prospective cut candidates due to the substantial drop-off in his effectiveness, and the presence of Polk, Baker, and Douglas. The Patriots would incur a cost of $9.6 million in dead money if that transpires after June 1, along with an additional $2.6 million in 2025, according to Over the Cap. 

Polk’s Fantasy Football Outlook

Polk’s impending entrance into the NFL did not elicit the same level of enthusiasm that was attained by the elite prospects from this year’s rookie class. However, he seized his place among the top-10 selections at his position despite operating in the same aerial attack as Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan during his two seasons with the Huskies.

While Odunze's role as Washington’s primary receiving weapon was understandable, Polk's placement behind McMillan on the team's depth chart during 2022 had become a topic of discussion leading up to the draft. As was McMillan's numbers after he returned from a four-game absence (knee) during 2023 (6.3 receptions/62 yards per game). However, Polk's performance during his tenure at the collegiate level was sufficient for him to be selected 55 picks earlier than McMillan, who was secured with the 92nd overall pick (Tampa Bay).

EAZY PEEZY 😤@jpolk_22 | @UW_Football

📺: #PatsDraft on NFLN pic.twitter.com/JGpp6Ygp97

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) April 27, 2024

His inclusion among the second-round selections is also a significant development, as the Patriots' investment in Polk should expedite his rise into a sizable role.

Great pitch and catch for Washington, Penix laying it out deep sideline for Ja'Lynn Polk.

Polk does a fantastic job tracking the ball, flashing some second gear, and making a terrific concentration grab. pic.twitter.com/DDh9sq07eO

— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) November 11, 2023

His versatility and dependability should also keep him highly involved in the distribution of targets this season, as he capitalizes on New England’s need for increased proficiency at his position.

This is a FIRE Ja'Lynn Polk highlight clip. 🔥🔥

(🎥 | @FFB_Fanatics)
pic.twitter.com/kKljwrCCaf

— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) April 27, 2024

Polk operates with a combination of size, speed, and acceleration, which fuel his ability to function as a consistent route runner while delivering the potential for big plays. He will also present his quarterback with reliable hands, a competitive nature, and ball-tracking skills that will propel him to success in contested catch situations. Those elements should also facilitate gaining his quarterback’s confidence as Polk advances through his rookie season.

Though Washington moved Ja'Lynn Polk more into the slot throughout his career, he posted a career-best 2.25 receiving yards per team pass attempt (RecYPTA) & 25% Receiver Dominator in 2023.

Polk is a weapon all over
✅25.9% Deep Tgt%
✅36.1% Med Tgt%
✅24.1% Short Tgt% pic.twitter.com/oTcqk9UI0l

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) April 9, 2024

Polk was included on PFF’s list of deep threats at his position in 2023. He finished seventh overall with 14 deep catches, consisting of passes launched 20+ yards. Polk was also eighth among all wide receivers with 567 deep receiving yards.   

Michael Penix Jr to Ja’Lynn Polk

WHAT A THROW. WHAT A CATCH.

WASHINGTON HUSKIES LEAD 21-17 🤯 pic.twitter.com/yXvGLIMUBf

— Sports ON Tap Seattle (@SeattleONTap) January 2, 2024

Polk’s ability to run after the catch and his willingness as a blocker will also combine with his other attributes to keep him on the field.

Ja'Lynn Polk blocking a LB

Tape is filled with him playing a key part in the run game pic.twitter.com/dVf5YXdRjE

— Connor Rogers (@ConnorJRogers) April 11, 2024

Polk is primed to operate with an integral role within the Patriots’ receiving arsenal. He should progress toward usage and production that presents fantasy managers with a roster asset during his rookie season. That makes him a viable selection late in Round 2 of Superflex and 1QB rookie drafts. He can also be targeted in Round 11 of dynasty startup drafts and Round 16 in best ball leagues.

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