RADIO
Chris Gregory identifies the fantasy football defenders likely to break out, surprise, and fall short of expectations in IDP fantasy football leagues for 2024.
We are incredibly close to real football. That means peak fantasy football draft time is upon us. Data shows that most fantasy redraft leagues wait to draft their teams until the final week before kickoff. In short, this coming weekend will be the busiest draft day of the year, and many IDP managers will be looking for help.
This column will address IDP breakouts, sleepers, and busts. For clarity, we will define a “breakout” as a player I expect to significantly outperform past production or current ADP. Meanwhile, “sleepers” will be players who have not done much in the NFL but will. Finally, “busts” are players who are being drafted well ahead of my current projections.
The final thing worth noting is that this column is meant to address ALL IDP formats. There are a wide variety of IDP leagues and scoring systems. A majority of IDP leagues start just four defenders and use Standard IDP scoring, which I detail in many other articles. Others go much deeper and hand out more points. The hope is this article can help everyone.
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Fantasy Football IDP Breakouts
Ivan Pace Jr., LB, Minnesota Vikings
This undrafted free agent out of Cincinnati was on my radar early, as he carried a third-round grade for me in the 2023 NFL Draft. He was an athletic and violent player who was above average in nearly every aspect of the game, so it was baffling when he went undrafted. That’s why I listed him as an IDP sleeper in June 2023.
As a rookie, Pace played 79% or more of Minnesota's defensive snaps in seven games. He averaged 9.0 Standard IDP points per game in those contests, which was good for LB16 in fantasy PPG last year. Now, Pace is expected to be a full-time starter and a leader on the Vikings defense, which means more snaps and a bigger role.
All reports out of Minnesota are that Pace looks even better this summer than he did last year. I expect a major jump for Pace in his second season, a view many Vikings beat writers and coaches share. The Cincy alum sits as LB5 overall in my rankings despite his ADP being LB31.
LB Ivan Pace Jr (0) defended this duo run perfectly. He’s a hunter.
I mocked him to the Chargers last year in the second round.
I will never stop being shocked that he was a UDFA. https://t.co/qmHwRm5s7P pic.twitter.com/oLO9UFglEz
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) August 21, 2024
Payton Wilson, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Wilson is currently the 59th-most-rostered LB in fantasy, with many prominent outlets (ESPN being one) not listing him in the top 50 of its LB positional rankings. This lack of respect is likely due to Wilson’s health history and unclear role early in the season, but it ignores his massive upside.
While it’s unclear if Wilson will be an immediate starter for Pittsburgh and injuries will always be a concern, all camp reports suggest he is thriving in its scheme and could be the dime linebacker on Day 1. This makes sense, as Wilson was the best athlete amongst the LBs in this NFL Draft class, and he was plus in coverage at NC State.
The Steelers are a defense that routinely produces adequate fantasy stats from below-average interior linebackers because the scheme and surrounding talent allow it. While Patrick Queen should reap the early rewards of that situation, Wilson is the one who could become an every-down superstar in the middle of this defense.
Will Anderson Jr., DL, Houston Texans
Will Anderson Jr. was the third overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, yet he is wildly undervalued in IDP. The Alabama alum is currently the 32nd-most rostered DL in fantasy, while prominent outlets like ESPN rank him as low as DL42. This is shocking, considering Anderson’s pedigree and rookie film.
Anderson is one of the best and most well-rounded defensive line prospects to come out of college in the past five years. While plenty of elite prospects don’t pan out, Anderson’s film and advanced metrics were both good as a rookie. Given his physical talent, it’s unclear why people expect less out of him now that he has help on the D-line.
While it’s difficult to project 15+ sacks, the former Crimson Tide’s pass-rush power and prowess against the run suggest his tackle and sack numbers should rise this season. Anderson’s ability to contribute in all phases means he should finish no lower than DL20 this year, if healthy, and he has a top-10 upside.
Geno Stone, DB, Cincinnati Bengals
Stone finished second in the NFL in interceptions last year despite starting just 11 games and playing over 80% of the defensive snaps in only 10 contests. The Iowa alum was effectively Baltimore's third safety, seeing a lot of snaps as the high safety in Cover 3 looks.
What sets Stone apart from other ballhawks is that his change of scenery and scheme should allow for an increase in the safest IDP category there is, which is tackles. The Bengals should allow Stone to play more snaps near the line of scrimmage and give him more volume overall, meaning his tackle total could rise into the range of 90.
With an expected uptick in playing time and a more diverse usage, Stone should easily set a career-high in tackles while providing PDs and INTs as well. While he is the 109th-most rostered DB in fantasy, the former Hawkeye should finish the season somewhere between DB25 and DB30.
Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers
Trenton Simpson, LB, Baltimore Ravens
Simpson is currently the 52nd-most-rostered LB in fantasy, despite the fact he was arguably the most athletic linebacker prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft. Simpson's athleticism is why he made my “defenders to stash” list in 2023 despite a lack of playing time. Now, he is projected to be a full-time starter on a strong defense.
While the Ravens’ defensive system under John Harbaugh hasn’t always maximized the fantasy potential of its interior linebackers, it has produced multiple fantasy-relevant linebackers when the talent has been right. Last year, Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen both accomplished this feat, and Simpson is a stronger run defender than Queen.
Look for Simpson to fill Queen's shoes nicely. As a prospect, he was arguably a better tackler and overall athlete than Queen was coming out of LSU. Although Simpson lacks Queen's coverage skills, which could limit his passing downs work, camp reports are positive and he should be locked in as a starter.
Ji’Ayir Brown, DB, San Francisco 49ers
Brown is a repeat sleeper for us, as he made my deep sleepers rankings last summer. He was a ballhawk at Penn State and that trait has translated in the pros, where he notched three INTs and five pass deflections (PDs) in seven starts as a rookie. He also saved the best for last, collecting 11 tackles and an INT in the Super Bowl.
Reports indicate Brown has repeatedly picked off and frustrated Brock Purdy in camp. He is a no-doubt starter on an elite defense that should get a rebound year from its star pass-rusher, Nick Bosa. Brown is currently the 65th-most-rostered DB in fantasy, but he has the potential for more.
Ji'Ayir Brown is a DAWG
Watch him welcome rookie Millard Bradford to the NFL 💀 pic.twitter.com/T6oxHHUQc7
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) August 29, 2024
Yaya Diaby, DL/LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While some in deep IDP formats may say Diaby can’t be a sleeper because he notched 7.5 sacks last year, the Louisville alum is rostered in just 2% of IDP leagues and is the 72nd-most-rostered DL in fantasy. That screams undervalued.
The Louisville product started each of the Buccaneers' final seven games, plus their two playoff contests. While his advanced metrics are not elite, Diaby should have a bigger role on a good defense in his second year. There's potential for double-digit sacks as Tampa's top pass-rusher, making him a fine DL3 option.
Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Baun and Dean have been in a heated competition for Philadelphia’s starting inside linebacker spot next to Devin White this season. All reports indicate that both players have looked exceedingly good, with Baun playing ahead of Dean for the majority of camp but Dean making flashy plays in the preseason.
Baun and Dean were two of my favorite defensive sleepers to come out of the NFL Draft's second day in the past few years. Both are attacking downhill thumpers. Dean has more tackle upside, while Baun has more pass-rush potential.
Keep an eye on who wins this competition and is named the starter. Whoever it is, they will be an undervalued but talented player in a favorable fantasy position. Dean is the current front-runner in the mind of IDP managers, given he's rostered in 3% of IDP leagues. Baun is available in 99.8% of leagues.
Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers and Dynasty Stashes
Malik Mustapha, DB, San Francisco 49ers
With Talanoa Hufanga likely to miss a few games early this year, Mustapha has a real shot to begin the season in San Francisco’s starting lineup. He has a similar style and mentality to what Hufanga brought out of USC and the rookie has made several big plays in the preseason.
San Francisco’s scheme utilizes thumping safeties in a fantasy-friendly way, leading Hufanga to an All-Pro season in his sophomore year. It was Hufanga’s profile and landing spot that put him on this list as a rookie.
Mustapha has a similar opportunity and profile to Hufanga, which could help him steal the veteran’s job in 2025, if not sooner. He is a fine dynasty stash in deeper leagues and is also worth monitoring on redraft waivers.
Austin Booker, DE, Chicago Bears
Booker was a lengthy and athletic project coming out of Kansas. There were major questions about whether he could handle power or move professional blockers off the line. However, the potential was clear if Booker could add strength and size without sacrificing his quickness.
All reports out of Bears camp are that Booker is dominating in practice. It sounds like he is as athletic and long as he looked on tape. The Bears desperately needed pass-rush help across from Montez Sweat, who ascended in Chicago's scheme, and they may have found it in Booker.
While Booker will be an inconsistent prospect who must continue earning reps, his physical profile has a massive upside. He is a fine stash in deeper redraft leagues. He is also a must-add in deep dynasty formats if he's available.
Austin Booker had a little fun in his snaps Thursday. pic.twitter.com/NKzQFum5O1
— Mike Faltas (@chi_faltas) August 25, 2024
Nik Bonitto, DL/LB, Denver Broncos
This makes three straight years in which Bonitto has made my IDP sleepers list. His pass-rush upside and his low cost in drafts continue to make him a high-quality sleeper, especially in deeper leagues.
While the former Sooner has been relegated to a rotational role so far, reports out of camp are that he’s added play strength and is improving against the run. Head coach Sean Payton even spoke glowingly about Bonitto and his ability to be their star pass-rusher if he can stay on the field.
With Denver's two starting outside linebackers headed for free agency in 2025 and the team clamoring for Bonitto to seize one of those spots, the Oklahoma product is a fantastic long-term stash with a double-digit sack upside. He’s currently rostered in fewer leagues than Aaron Donald … who is retired.
Daiyan Henley, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
Henley was one of my favorite LB prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft, largely due to his superb coverage skills. He’s shown those plus-coverage skills all summer long, which is why he’s still in contention for a starting linebacker position despite the depth Los Angeles has there.
While the odds remain stacked against Henley starting over Junior Colson or Denzel Perryman in Week 1, the Washington State product is better in coverage than both. In a division with Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers, the Chargers would be wise to utilize Henley often.
Fantasy Football IDP Busts
DaRon Bland, DB, Dallas Cowboys
Bland is currently the 30th-most-rostered DB in fantasy, despite the fact he is projected to miss the first four to six games of the season. Before that injury, Bland was DB17 on most sites. Unfortunately, last year’s INT leader carries a lot of fantasy risk, even if healthy.
The problem for Bland, aside from injury, is he relies heavily on volatile stats for fantasy production. Namely, he needed to lead the league in INTs and he had to return five of them for touchdowns to finish as DB3 last season. Those stats are extremely volatile.
Four players tied for the NFL lead in interceptions in 2022, but none of them finished in the top 25 the following year. The same thing happened in 2021, with the previous year’s top two interception leaders failing to finish top 25 that season. Only one defender in the past decade has finished top five in INTs in consecutive seasons.
Worse for Bland, his 15 pass deflections (PDs) in 2023 were the lowest of any NFL interception leader over the past decade, save three of the four players who tied for the lead in 2022. This is another concerning sign, as PDs are a key fantasy stat for DBs when their INTs dip.
Jalen Cropper Vs Daron Bland 🍿
pic.twitter.com/BM9XcRx4dh— Sidelines - FresnoState (@SSN_FresnoState) July 31, 2024
Matthew Judon, DL/LB, Atlanta Falcons
Judon is 32 years old and coming off a season-ending bicep tear. He's also changing teams, coming to an Atlanta Falcons defense with no prominent pass-rushers who will take opponents’ focus off him.
Before joining New England, Judon's career high in sacks was nine. At no time under Bill Belichick did Judon drop below a 12.5 sack per season pace. In short, Judon has only been an elite fantasy defender when he has played for Belichick.
While the Raheem Morris system could prove friendly to Judon, exercise caution with an aging pass-rusher who changed teams and is coming off a major injury. Especially when that pass-rusher is heavily dependent on sacks for his fantasy production and is currently the 19th-most-rostered DL in fantasy.
Khalil Mack, DL, Los Angeles Chargers
The former Defensive Player of the Year is coming off his best statistical season. In 2023, he set a career-high in sacks and PDs, tied his career-high in forced fumbles, and was just five tackles short of a career-high in total tackles. Unfortunately, his six seasons before the last were significantly worse.
While Mack set a career-high in sacks last year, he had failed to crack double digits in the category for six straight years before that. While he collected an impressive 10 PDs in 2023, his previous career high was four. While he came close to a career-high in tackles, his high in the previous six years was just 50.
All of this is to say that Mack's age (33) and previous production both suggest he may struggle to repeat his 2023 rebirth. Although he remains a fine DL2 option with DL1 upside, he is currently being drafted as DL5 in IDP redrafts. Nick Bosa is rostered in nearly half as many leagues.
Ernest Jones IV, LB, Tennessee Titans
Labeling Jones a bust is hard, considering his tackling ability should make it easy for him to produce in any system or locale. That tackle ability is what had him as a top-6 LB in my rankings and has many ranking him as a top-2 fantasy LB in their own. There are reasons for concern, though.
The first reason to doubt Jones at his cost is a reported knee problem. Some buzz suggests a nagging knee injury is part of why the Rams traded him. The player refutes this, but it’s worth monitoring.
Another reason to fade Jones at his cost is his trade to Tennessee. Odds are this move won't hurt Jones, but we cannot be sure of that. It's unclear if he could start the year sharing time as he learns the scheme or if the scheme will hamper him just a bit.
The final reason to worry is the fact Jones is the second-most-rostered LB in fantasy, yet he doesn't produce many big plays. He has just four forced turnovers in 47 career games, with just one forced fumble. His career high in sacks is just 4.5, which fits his limited pass-rush profile as a prospect.
Labeling Jones as a potential “bust” does not mean he won’t have value or that he shouldn’t be drafted as an LB1. It simply means he is unlikely to return value at his current cost, especially in Big Play Premium Scoring.
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