ESPN H2H Points League Primer - Strategy, Bargains and Busts for Fantasy Baseball

April 1, 2022

Nicklaus Gaut looks at fantasy baseball draft strategy, sleepers, and busts for ESPN H2H point leagues in 2022.

Please, everyone just calm down. Don't worry! I'm not gonna do...what everyone thinks I'm gonna do...and FLIP OUT, man!!! I know that this is usually the space where I go on a big rant about ESPN point league coverage and how much they're failing the people by producing content that fails to match the realities of their fantasy game. But now I say, not today!

To my delight, ESPN now has point rankings that more accurately reflect how players perform under their standard point scoring system. And not just rankings but dollar values too...Huzzah! Because it truly is, to my delight. I'm not a points crusader looking to pick fights and tear asunder; I just want platforms to give point players content that is accurate in regards to their particular system. That's it.

Because the more accurate the points content, the more fun people will actually have playing fantasy baseball...The more fun people have playing, the more they will play and the more people that will play. The more people that play fantasy, the more they will love baseball. And the more people that love baseball, the more likely it is that someone in the grocery line won't think I'm a total weirdo for spitting out a five-minute monologue on the mysteries of seam-shifted wake. Step three: Profit. This isn't that hard people.

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ESPN H2H Points Standard League Overview

League Size: Anywhere from 4-20 teams for custom leagues but 10-12 team leagues make up a majority of the public leagues.

Hitting Roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT

Pitching Roster: Nine Pitchers, open designation

Standard Scoring:

Hitter Scoring Notes

• There is a full (-1) point penalty per strikeout. This is the biggest penalty found on the standard settings for the major platforms, as CBS has a (-0.5) penalty, while Fantrax and Yahoo have no penalty. This has a massive effect on hitters' value, obviously dragging down the value of high-K players. But don't discount the passive value that low-K hitters will accumulate over the course of a season.  For example, take Kris Bryant (95 ADP) and Alex Bregman (85 ADP). According to ATC, Bregman projects for 87 strikeouts compared to 135 strikeouts for Bryant, and that 48-point gap is just a massive handicap. In ESPN terms, that is the equivalent of 12 (solo) HR, 48 bases, 48 walks, or any other combination of points that Bryant has to make up just to level the strikeout field.
• ESPN awards just one (1) point per stolen bases, wherein CBS and Yahoo give two (2) points, and Yahoo awards 4.2 points. This is an important thing to account for when adjusting a player's general roto value to their ESPN points value. IE. If a large part of a player's fantasy value is wrapped up in their speed, they will be comparatively much less valuable on ESPN.

It can't be said enough; a hitter's point-scoring profile is just as, if not more so, important than a player's talent. If a skill set doesn't translate well to a scoring system (even if it's valuable in another system or in roto), it's hard for a player to change their value without a major change to their profile.

In ESPN, for example, I don't care how many home runs Teoscar  Hernandez hits, he won't be much better than a top-50 hitter as long as his strikeout rate stays near 30%. Starling Marte will never be worth 50 picks after his roto ADP. Neither will Whit Merrifield. Sometimes even the best version of a player in real life won't translate to a quality player in a particular points system. Don't fight it.

Pitcher Scoring Notes

• Win and Save bonuses are only five (5) points, which are the lowest of any platform.
• Losses are (-5) each. This is the same as Fantrax and CBS, while Yahoo doesn't have a Loss penalty. However, it is worth noting that ESPN has equal points for Wins and Losses (+5 vs -5) while Fantrax (+10 vs -5) and CBS (+7 vs -5) reward goodness more than they punish the bad.
• Each ER is (-2), which is double Fantrax (who also doesn't punish hits or walks) and CBS.

Hitting Strategy for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

It's all about hunting bargains by taking advantage of your competition improperly valuing players due to the strikeout penalty and relatively lower stolen base scoring. These per-PA advantages can be found in any scoring system but the weight the aforementioned qualities place on overall value can take these swings to an extreme, compared to what a player's value is generally thought to be.

However, while there are a lot of bargains to be found (and I'm likely going SP-heavy upfront), I'm not going full-on penny-pincher with hitters. I just want to be extra selective, drafting the hitters who are right before a large positional dropoff.

To illustrate this point we can look at an example using our RotoBaller exclusive custom point rankings, loaded with the latest ATC projections and setup for a 12-team standard league on ESPN:

Since I'll be attacking pitching early, Ramirez, Devers, and Machado are obviously out for me. Maybe even Arenado and Bregman, whose ADP might be relatively higher on ESPN. But given what's coming down the road, I don't want to wait too long and like betting on a bounceback from Anthony Rendon, who has a very point-friendly profile and is right before a big value cliff.

If you wait and have to settle for someone like Matt Chapman or Yoan Moncado (which doesn't seem awful, on paper) it's going to hurt a lot more than you might think.

Hitter Bargains and Busts for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

Bargains

Alex Bregman, HOU, 3B

Given his points-friendly profile and depressed name value, the aforementioned Alex Bregman should be an easy source of profit in 2022. And mind you, that profile is friendly enough that you don't need a full return to the elite numbers that Bregman put up in 2018-2019. ATC projects him to slash .268/.367/.476 over 609 PA, with 25 HR, 84 R, 84 RBI, and 2 SB. That doesn't exactly jump off the page but when combined with a 12.6% BB% and just a 13.0% K%, Bregman turns into ESPN points gold.

Those relatively mundane numbers project him as a top-25 hitter overall and running a top-15 per-PA scoring rate. The power of a minuscule strikeout rate cannot be understated.

Josh Bell, WSH, 1B

Bell is another player with a golden scoring profile for ESPN points, regularly posting sub-20% strikeout rates and walk rates over 10%. Like Bregman but with more pop and a higher strikeout rate, ATC projects Bell to score 0.64 pts per-PA in 2022, virtually the same rate as in 2021, and coming in just ahead of Pete Alonso and Jose Abreu - both of whom will come with far heftier price tags.

Max Kepler, MIN, OF

Ich Liebe Dich and ATC loves it some Herr Kepler, projecting him as a top-30 OF in 2022 and in the same company as Eloy Jimenez and Giancarlo Stanton. And I have to agree as Kepler is another hitter in the Goldilocks zone, running strikeout rates under 20% and walk rates over 10%. Add that to a stable job in the middle of a strong Minnesota offense and you have a recipe for some of the best fantasy schnitzel that an ESPN points player could ask for.

Busts

Adalberto Mondesi, KC, 3B

Mondesi isn't just a bust; he's undraftable. He's not just undraftable, his profile is nearly the perfect antithesis of what it takes to be a good scorer in ESPN points. Mondesi has a 30% K%, 5% BB%, and most of his non-points fantasy value is wrapped up in his stolen base ceiling. Seriously, it's like he was created in a lab to be the world's worst ESPN points asset.

Tommy Edman, STL, 2B

Edman doesn't have the strikeout problems of Mondesi (13.7% K% in 2021) but also doesn't walk very much (5.5% BB% in 2021) and gets most of his roto value sucked away by ESPN only giving one point per SB.

Compare Edman to Jean Segura, who has similar walk and strikeout rates but trades stolen bases for home runs and a higher average. ATC projects Edman and Segura for a similar value in 2022 but Segura is going about 100 picks later. Your call.

Javier Baez, DET/Jazz Chisholm, MIA

These two are basically better versions of Adalberto Mondesi. Lots of steals and strikeouts, few walks. AKA ESPN points poison. Don't draft them.

Luis Robert, OF, CHW

Different player, same tune as above. Robert doesn't walk (4.7% BB% in 2021) and while he did slash his strikeout rate from a 32.2% K% over 227 PA in 2020 to a 20.6% K% over 296 PA in 2021, a 16.1% SwStr% doesn't speak a lot of truth to the power of that decrease.

There are a lot of paths where the developing Robert improves enough to not be a bust but players like this - with scoring profiles that dictate them needing to get near their ceiling in order to justify their draft price - are ones I try to avoid.

Tyler O'Neill, OF, STL

If I don't like Robert, I'm certainly not recommending O'Neill, who, even in a breakout 2021 season, didn't finish as a top-100 player under ESPN standard scoring. O'Neill has a 7.1% BB% for his career and a 32.5% K% (with a 17.5% SwStr%)...This is not the points profile that you are looking for.

Pitching Strategy for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

The first question is; does your league allow the loophole, or not? Public leagues allow a team to make 12 starts per week but will still count the stats if you go over the limit, as long as you started the day below the threshold. So, if you enter Sunday (or any other day) with 11/12 starts, all starts from that day will count as opposed to the stats freezing after the 12th start. IE. Big giant loophole.

Allowing the loophole not only reflects poorly on ESPN as a gamemaker but it makes playing their public leagues a mostly worthless endeavor. They fixed their point ranks; this should be next.

Hopefully, your league doesn't allow the loophole but even without it, I find the best strategy to be one that overwhelms with elite pitching. And I do mean overwhelm. The number of early picks that I'll use on starters in this format will vary depending on my opponents but roughly speaking, I'm drafting top-20ish guys until there aren't any more left on the board. This strategy isn't just about pitcher scoring and/or scarcity, though, it's also about it being easier to find valuable hitting under ESPN's scoring due to your opponents underestimating what we discussed earlier in the hitter notes.

Relievers are kind of a different story, as their overall value is going to be depressed by ESPN's lack of dedicated "RP" slots. With open "P" slots it will usually be better to start an SP than an RP, on an apple-to-apple basis...But!

This is also about deployment and using multiple elite RPs can definitely be a viable strategy. But you need to be aware that RP scoring isn't very high and reliever values tend to shake out very "stars and scrubs". That is, things get quite bleak once you get past the top 10-15 guys. Personally, I'd really only be willing to pay retail for Liam Hendricks and Josh Hader, perhaps mixing in another if a top-8ish guy happens to fall.

Pitcher Bargains and Busts for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

Bargains

Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, DET

I think Rodriguez is a bargain under any format, as his peripherals spoke much better of his 2021  did the results did. The 4.74 ERA over 157.2 IP was incredibly ugly but a 3.32 FIP said a lot more about the quality of those innings and a 3.43 xFIP and 3.65 SIERA say the future could be a lot brighter. Add that to his move to a much more favorable home park and division, and Rodriguez seems an even better bet to solidify your rotation. Looking at ATC projections for ESPN standard leagues, it seems they agree; Rodriguez comes in as the SP 26, sandwiched between Luis Castillo and Jack Flaherty, both of whom will come with significantly higher price tags.

Chris Bassitt, SP, NYM

Listen, if you haven't noticed yet, Bassitt has been sneaky good for a few years now. In fact, more than just good; Bassitt has a 3.23 ERA over 412 IP since 2018, with an 8.7 K/9 that has been trending up more recently. Not too shabby.

Bassist also ran a career-high 25.0% K% in 2021, though, that may be a little inflated considering that it was backed by just a 10.1% SwStr%. But Bassitt is a paradigm of consistency with a deep arsenal of pitches that all get whiffs, plus he may see his team situation improve after Oakland continues its seemingly inevitable summer sell-off...Oh, wait! Summer, schmummer - Oakland didn't bother waiting until later, trading Bassitt to the New York Mets to join Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. This is about as good as you can ask for, with Bassitt still getting a pitching park but going to a team with a significantly better bullpen and offense, and one that continues to signal they are all-in for 2022.

Going back to my general pitching strategy from above, after getting elite starters early, I'll be looking to fill out the rest of my staff with guys like Bassitt and Rodriguez. Their profiles aren't as flashy but their point totals at the end will be, with some very friendly prices.

Busts

Shane Baz, SP, TB

This isn't anything about the talent level of Baz, it's all about the innings. According to ATC projections, his per-innings scoring rates are similar to Lucas Giolito and Julio Urias but that rate will likely come over only 120-130 IP. And that's if he joins the rotation right away, which certainly isn't a guarantee. Do you trust the Rays and their pitching usage? Because I don't. There are simply far more "boring" pitchers to take later than Baz that you'll be able to count on for reliable usage.

See also; pretty much any other young starter that might not make the Opening Day rotation and/or is unlikely to have a full innings load. Logan Gilbert, Aaron Ashby - I'm looking at you. Again, this isn't necessarily about talent and their per-inning scoring rates might be excellent. But under ESPN scoring, which awards three points per IP, racking up innings is imperative for consistently high point totals. And in a week-to-week H2H game, I want as much consistency as I can get to give myself the highest floor possible every week.

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