RADIO
Tight end Rob Gronkowski a.k.a. Gronk has suddenly come back to the NFL to play with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. Mike Riggall analyzes the fantasy football implications of the star TE joining the Bucs in 2020.
Just two days before the 2020 NFL Draft was set to get underway, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stole the headlines and made a splash by trading for former Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. He insisted that he wouldn't play for any quarterback other than Tom Brady, so the move to Tampa fulfilled his wish.
When Gronkowski was in his prime and healthy, he was nearly unstoppable. Gronkowski entered the league with an injury red flag due to an issue with his back and he took abuse from opposing defenders over the years due to his aggressive style of play. It almost seemed like he limped through the entire 2018 season, as he simply didn't look like himself. His body was so beat up from the years of punishment and his early retirement seemed inevitable.
Now, in 2020, after a year of rest, Gronk is suddenly reunited with Tom Brady as a Tampa Bay Buc. What is the ripple effect created by this move in the fantasy football universe?
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Is Tampa the Right Fit?
For years, the narrative on Bruce Arians-led offenses (Byron Leftwich is the play caller) has been that the tight end simply isn't used. However, last year, with Jameis Winston at quarterback, Buccaneers' tight ends were targeted a healthy 116 times. Tom Brady had been playing with Gronkowski since the 2010 season and in 2019, without Gronk, Brady struggled. Digging a little deeper, in 2019 Brady had his second-lowest completion percentage (60.8%), lowest yards-per-game (253.6) and lowest touchdown rate (3.9%) since 2010.
Simply put, Tom Brady relies on Gronk in tough situations, such as the red-zone and third downs, and he's just better with him on his side. Even with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans competing for targets, Gronk should be fine because Brady doesn't feed the ball to one player; he throws to the open man, and he has an already existing trust with him.
Good Old Gronk
Now, let's dig into some stats over the last five years of Gronk's career before he retired to really see how he performed. Since 2014, Rob Gronkowski finished as the No. 1, No. 1, No. 26, No. 2 and No. 11 scoring tight end in PPR formats.
Evaluating Gronkowski on a points-per-game basis during that same span, he finished as the No. 1, No. 2, No. 8, No. 1 and No. 9 tight end. Gronkowski has a reputation of being injured all the time, but he played in 65 of a possible 80 (81.25%) games from 2014 through 2018 which isn't great, but it's not terrible either.
Let's focus on his 2018 season, where he looked old and beat up, while still managing to finish as the ninth-best tight end on a points-per-game basis. He's only going to be 31 years old when the 2020 season starts, so he should be rejuvenated after a year of rest. Based on his 2018 season, in light of the circumstances and Brady's trust level in him, I am in on Gronk this year. Now we have discussed the stats, quarterback, and overall trust level, the cost of getting him on your fantasy team needs to be considered.
2020 Fantasy Value
Gronkowski has always been a natural athlete and should be able to regain his form fairly quickly. The top tight ends heading into the 2020 season are starting to take shape and it's going to be tricky to see where Gronk fits in.
If he shows well in camp, his ADP will surely shoot through the roof, but if he's slow off the mark, he may slip. Now it's time to figure out where Gronk fits in according to NFFC ADP data for the top tight ends drafted during the month of April. Let's start by looking at the top-five tight ends currently being drafted.
Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Zach Ertz are locked in as top options and should be drafted before Gronk. While I have confidence that Gronk will return to form in 2020 and he will rekindle his chemistry with Brady, it's hard to draft him over Darren Waller and Mark Andrews. While Waller and Andrews have their limitations, they are both young and ascending talents.
Waller now has to compete with Jason Witten for snaps and targets and if the Raiders draft a wide receiver early, he may lose targets to the receivers as well. Andrews is a stud, and while he plays in a relatively low-volume passing offense, he was targeted 98 times in 2020 which was fifth-most in the league for tight ends. The bottom line is that I would not draft Gronk as a top-five tight end. Tight ends 6-10 is where things get interesting.
The Rams played with more 12-personnel towards the end of 2019 and as a result, Tyler Higbee emerged as a legitimate weapon and top-flight fantasy football tight end. Higbee is emerging as a star in the league and should continue to ascend, so I would take Higbee over Gronk. This tier isn't as solid as the top-six, and this is where Gronk comes into play.
Evan Engram has the talent to be a top-five fantasy tight end but he is seemingly always hurt, but I am not sure if I would go with a 31-year-old Gronk over Engram who likely has his best football ahead of him. Hunter Henry also has injury concerns, and will either be playing with a rookie quarterback or Tyrod Taylor.
This is where I would take Gronk (before Henry), and not because Henry doesn't have talent, but because he has both injury and quarterback concerns which is enough to make that call. Austin Hooper is coming off a career year in Atlanta but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Cleveland, which gives me pause, While Jared Cook finished as the No. 7 tight end in 2019, he had nine touchdowns off of just 65 targets and 43 catches, which breaks down to one touchdown for every 4.77 catches, a mark which isn't sustainable.
Gronk should be drafted ahead of most of the guys ranked 11 through 15. Dallas Goedert isn't the starter in Philadelphia, but if Zach Ertz goes down, Goedert's ADP will rightfully shoot through the roof. Mike Gesicki is interesting because he started to break out in 2019 and if he continues on that trajectory, he may be drafted as a top-five tight end in 2021 drafts.
O.J. Howard is likely on his way out of Tampa Bay now, Noah Fant is unproven playing with an unseasoned quarterback, and while Hayden Hurst is taking over for Austin Hooper in Atlanta and should see a large target-volume, he has injury concerns of his own. Out of this group, the only player I would consider drafting over Gronk is Mike Gesicki, and that's because he is a stud that's on the cusp of a full-on breakout.
Conclusion
In summary, Rob Gronkowski is a red-zone threat and has tremendous chemistry with Tom Brady, both of which are factors that cannot be ignored. Gronk battled injuries his entire career, but you could argue that 2018 was rock-bottom for him, as he appeared to battle just to get through the season.
After having a year off to rest and recover, he should, at a minimum, assume his 2018 form, which would place him as a top-10 fantasy tight end. At this time, knowing what we know, I think it's safe to draft Rob Gronkowski as the No. 8 tight end off the board in 2020 fantasy drafts.
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