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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! We had ourselves a decent day Sunday, again finishing 1-1. A bit frustrating to finish with these 1-1 days with plays in the article, but we just have to take it to the chin. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, April 21, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 8-7-1, -1.4 units
- Sides: 6-4, +0.38 units
- Totals: 2-3-1, -1.78 units
- Notes:
Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: OAK -134
BAL: Tyler Wells | OAK: Paul Blackburn
I'll start today's slate off out in Oakland, where it's super unfortunate to see what's going on with attendance numbers out there. Nevertheless, I'm on the future "Las Vegas Athletics" today. They'll send Paul Blackburn to the mound, who has seemingly greatly improved his stuff prior to this season. Blackburn is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 1.89 xFIP in two starts on the year, with the A's picking up the win in both.
On the other side of the matchup, we have Tyler Wells. Wells comes into this one with an 0-1 record, 6.35 ERA, and 4.89 xFIP. The xFIP to ERA regression shows that Wells has been a bit unlucky when allowing runs, but I still think he's a mediocre starter. My model's data agrees, with Tyler Wells coming into this one with a 54.51 rating while Blackburn brings in a 63.83 rating.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the A's at -134 right now, giving us implied odds of 59.68%. My model gives the A's a 65.83% chance to win the game, giving us some solid value here (+6.15%), winning by a final score of 4.78-3.74. Wells has lost his only two outings as a starter, while the Athletics are 3-1 in Blackburn's last four starts. Although the Orioles stole one last night, Oakland was 4-0 in their last four home games against a right-handed starter, and I like them to get this one.
Pick: Oakland Athletics Money Line (-134) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: WSH -136
ARI: Zach Davies | WSH: Josh Rogers
I'll be looking at an over in this one, as the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals wrap up their series. The Diamondbacks will send Zach Davies to the mound, who comes into this one 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA and a 5.07 xFIP. While the Nationals aren't an offensive powerhouse, they do grade well against Davies, particularly at the top of their lineup.
Josh Rogers takes the ball for Washington, coming into this one 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA. However, we can conclude Rogers has been a bit lucky while on the mound, considering his 5.08 xFIP actually comes in worse than Zach Davies. Arizona isn't quite the offensive powerhouse either, ranking near the bottom of the league in runs per game, but I can't see Rogers continuing to pitch at a high rate. None of the Diamondbacks have faced Rogers yet, but a solid amount of hitters (Hummel, Marte, Kelly, and Walker) grade out well against the southpaw.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the over at 8.5 here, at -132. It's a bit juiced for my liking, with implied odds of 56.9%, but my model still has it blowing past this number. With a 62.63% chance of going over and a total finishing at 10.07, I believe there's solid value here. Over 8.5 has hit in five of Davies's last six starts, as well as his last start against the Nationals (5/18/2021, while he was pitching for the Cubs). It's hit in four of Rogers's past six starts as well. While the under has been the play in this series outside of last night's game, the over is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks' last "game-fours" of a series, as well as going 5-0-1 in Washington's last six against a right-handed starter. I hope this one isn't an offensive struggle, because there's some solid value here.
Pick: Diamondbacks @ Nationals, over 8.5 (-132) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good to be back Rotoballers! Stay tuned for my plays through the rest of the week and weekend. Good luck!
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