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We have a smaller betting slate this week with only 46 games on Saturday. Some teams have scheduled off weeks. Army is playing with toothpaste. Liberty is maybe in legal trouble? It looks like they're playing a law firm or something.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. What I learned from looking at this is that the SEC is my friend, and the MAC is not. I'm also having problems with most Texas teams. I even whiffed on UTSA last week! Despite being 8-0 when picking FIU or James Madison, I have only made 11 points off of them.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 7 (10/15)
(10)Penn State at (5)Michigan(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping to get the benefit of the half here. It opened at -7.5 but has flatlined at -7. I liked it better at 7.5. We are going to learn a lot about the Penn State defense and about J.J. McCarthy in this one. Penn State is only allowing 3 yards per carry this season. The caveat is the only real running team they have faced is Auburn. Can McCarthy throw to win? Maybe, but I don't know if it's by a touchdown. Give me Penn State.
Auburn at (9)Mississippi(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not a big fan of that half, but if Auburn struggles to move the ball against Ole Miss as they did against Georgia, they'll get buried. Give me Mississippi.
(19)Kansas at Oklahoma(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high. Jason Bean threw four touchdowns in the second half last week, so if Kansas has to start him, it doesn't feel like much of a step down. Oklahoma's bugaboo is running quarterbacks though. If Jalon Daniels is able to play in this game, Kansas might win outright. Otherwise, it's going to be a little tougher. That said, I really don't trust our secondary. We are already allowing "for the first time since" pre-Stoops to everything else. We may as well add losing to Kansas for the first time since 1997. Give me Kansas.
Iowa State at (22)Texas(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Considering how well the Iowa State defense has played, this feels kind of high. Iowa State has only allowed more than 14 points once in six games. However, Iowa State's inability to run the ball is going to be a huge problem here. Still, I'm taking the Cyclones to keep it within 14 or so. This team plays well on defense and doesn't make a ton of mistakes.
Minnesota(-6.5) at (24)Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has climbed steadily since opening at -1. Illinois likely would have beaten Iowa with Tommy DeVito, but they had no chance with Artur Sitkowski. Even if DeVito plays, Minnesota is near the top of FBS in total defense, just like Iowa. The difference is that Minnesota can actually move the ball and Tanner Morgan is more than just a game manager. Give me the Gophers.
Central Michigan(-13.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Here's a list of all of the teams that Central Michigan has beaten by 14 points this year: Bucknell. That's it. It's also their only win of the year. Two touchdowns on the road for a team that hasn't beaten a FBS school? I don't think so. Give me Akron. I don't think the Zips win, but they should hang around.
Miami(OH)(-6.5) at Bowling Green
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Falcons are improving, but that Redhawks defense has been tough to score points on. I'll take Miami.
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
East Carolina and Liberty both covered the Monarchs by this, but CCU has only won one game by more than 12 points. They couldn't even cover that against Monroe. I'll take Old Dominion. I don't think they win, but they should stay within ten or so.
Miami(FL)(-7.5) at Virginia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is another steadily climbing line. I don't like the half, but I also don't think the Hokies have the ability to hit Miami where it hurts (the secondary). Give me the Canes.
Buffalo(-17.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. I've been bad at picking the Bulls, but I feel pretty good about this one. It's time to get some money back.
California(-14.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I like what Owen McCown is doing in Boulder, but he needs help that he just doesn't have right now. Give me Cal, but I'm lowering the bet some because of that half.
Connecticut at Ball State(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm surprised that it's this low, but UConn's win over Fresno is skewing this line. I'll take the proven defense of Ball State over the up-and-coming UConn defense. Give me the Lettermans.
Vanderbilt at (1)Georgia(-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Oh, man...I hate likes like this. Give me Vandy, but you couldn't pay me to bet this. Vanderbilt should get one or two explosive plays to keep the cover at bay.
(3)Alabama(-7.5) at (6)Tennessee
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too high. I know Bryce Young is going to be back, but Tennessee is the type of team that gives Alabama problems. They play fast, they are fast, and the explosive plays will keep this close. This is going to be a higher-scoring game than Bama wants. This is a game that Tennessee could win, so I'm taking the Vols since the spread is over one score. That gives me some wiggle room in what should be a close game. I was impressed that the Vols showed up in Death Valley. They weren't looking ahead. That's a very good sign.
(8)Oklahoma State at (13)TCU(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I still like the Pokes straight up. TCU is getting respect for beating a sub-par Oklahoma team and a Kansas team that lost their starting quarterback in the middle of the game.
(15)North Carolina State at (18)Syracuse(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping that the Wolfpack would be favored to make this a little easier. This line means that Vegas thinks Devin Leary is going to be out even though the Wolfpack hinted that he might play. I really don't like the half, so I'm probably avoiding this one. This feels like a close game. I'm a believer in Dino Babers and what he is doing at Syracuse. Give me the Orange.
Arkansas(-1.5) at BYU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
K.J. Jefferson is back and I'm quite sure the BYU defense will be powerless to stop him. The Piggies are going to chew up the Cougars on the ground. Give me Arkansas.
Maryland(-11.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Indiana is finally getting their receivers back, so the line is dropping. That's fine with me. The Indiana defense is going to have problems with Taulia and Maryland's receivers. Give me the Terps.
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I feel like the Eagles are getting a little too much credit for trampling directional in-state rival Western Michigan last week. However, Northern Illinois is likely going to be without Rocky Lombardi again. NIU is grandstanding when it comes to his injury status. More than one report says he is out for the season. Right now, I believe that over whatever the team says. The inefficiency on offense without Lombardi is a real problem. I'll take the Eagles.
Kent State at Toledo(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Forget for a minute what Ohio State did to Toledo. They would do that to many teams this year, not just the Rockets. Kent struggled with both Ohio and NIU, who we just established is incredibly inefficient on offense. I have to go Toledo here.
Ohio(-1.5) at Western Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't really know what to make of Western. They have two good backs, but can't run because they are multiple scores behind before halftime. The line hasn't played well. The defense has left a lot to be desired. Now the high-powered Ohio offense comes to town. The Bobcats will give up their share of points (and yours too, for that matter), but I think they outscore the Broncos by more than enough to cover this.
Texas State at Troy(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm more than a little surprised by this line. Texas State beat App State last week. Granted, it was at home, but that's still a big win. Troy might be without Gunnar Watson. They don't lose much with Jarret Doege back there. This feels high, but I don't know...the Bobcats have lost three road games by a combined 79 points and one of those was to Nevada. Give me Troy.
Charlotte at UAB(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Blazers are getting healthy and they have only allowed three passing touchdowns –while picking off seven passes – in five games. No team has more than 205 passing yards on UAB this year. That includes a Middle Tennessee State squad that took the top off of the Miami defense several times. Chris Reynolds is going to go over that mark, but I think UAB controls this game. That offense is good. Give me the Blazers.
Western Kentucky(-7.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The WKU defense has had its issues, but look at what Trea Shropshire did to MTSU last week. The Hilltoppers have the receivers to blow this game open. Give me WKU.
(25)James Madison(-10.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Dukes – in their first year of FBS football – are ranked. Get rid of that stupid transition rule. They should have a shot at the Fun Belt title and get a trip to a bowl game that they have already earned. This is too low. JMU is going to pull away at some point as they did against Arkansas State last week.
Wisconsin(-7.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm not going to pretend that Wisconsin is suddenly an elite offense, but they aren't stuck in the mud like they were under Paul Chryst. This Michigan State defense has been pulverized by Washington, Minnesota, a beaten-up Maryland team, and Ohio State after they blanked Akron in Week 2. Now it's Wisconsin's turn. This is way too low! Badgers roll!
Tulane(-11.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place, and I get it. USF hung with Florida and Cincinnati. Getting blown off the field by Louisville feels like the outlier. The Bulls haven't been home since September 10. I feel like they are able to keep it close at home even though they won't win.
Louisiana Tech at North Texas(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is an interesting line, but considering La Tech lost to UTEP last week, I'm going with North Texas. This almost feels low.
Arizona at Washington(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has fallen a bit, and I get it. People have soured on Washington after losing to both UCLA and Arizona State as favorites. I want to take Arizona, but they just got blasted at home by Oregon. Give me Washington.
Rice at Florida Atlantic(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There have been a lot of people backing Rice after the Owls pushed Houston and knocked off UAB. Can they do it on the road though? I have my doubts. Give me FAU, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.
LSU at Florida(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hey, remember when this was a hot ticket? It still is, but it has lost some luster. There's almost no juice on LSU, but I still wouldn't bet them. Florida has a more proven quarterback. I like Jayden Daniels, but he has had plenty of problems with the LSU offense. Give me Florida at home.
Utah State(-11.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. Cooper Legas has led the Aggies to a couple of improbable wins in relief of Logan Bonner. He isn't going to make the mistakes that Nevada did. Aggies win BIG.
Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Monroe's claim to fame is taking massive paychecks to get throttled in Tuscaloosa and Austin back in September. They lost to the Red Wolves by this, but hanging with Coastal Carolina when they should have been buried in that game makes me think they might be able to hang around in Mobile. I have no interest in betting this, but give me Monroe.
Arkansas State at Southern Mississippi(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know what to make of Southern Miss. I'll take them, but again, I'm leaving this alone. Maybe I should take the same approach to the middle of the MAC as I do to the middle of the Fun Belt.
(4)Clemson(-3.5) at Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. Florida State hasn't beaten Clemson since 2014 and only one of those losses (2016) was within three points. FSU just lost to North Carolina State with a backup quarterback that threw one pass in to close the game. Give me Clemson.
(16)Mississippi State(-3.5) at (22)Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Will he or won't he? The Wildcats say that Will Levis is playing. This offense looks a lot different with him on the field, but can this defense stand up to a Mike Leach offense? The Bulldogs haven't won in Lexington since 2014, so I see a lot of sharps on Kentucky. I think I'm going with the Leaches. Even if Levis plays, I'm not sure he'll be 100%.
Stanford at Notre Dame(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yeah, Notre Dame is playing well right now, but this feels a little high to me. Both Washington and Oregon beat the Cardinal by 18. Notre Dame's offense isn't as potent as either of those. Give me the Cardinal. They won't win outright, but this is too many.
Nebraska at Purdue(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We're going to find out what Nebraska is made of here. Were the early season issues solely because they were playing for a lame-duck coach that quit caring? Is this defensive revolution for real? The Cornhuskers are finally playing with a purpose, so I feel this is a touch high. I'll take Nebraska to keep it within ten or so.
Memphis at East Carolina(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How is giving the game to Houston going to affect Memphis? I'm not sure it will be enough for them to lose this. Give me Memphis.
(7)USC at (20)Utah(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Why is Utah still getting this much credit? I don't feel that they have the receivers to really make the USC defense pay. The Utah defense is going to be tough, but not tough enough. Give me the Trojans.
New Mexico(-6.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Battle of I-25 is going to be an interesting one. I really can't argue with this line. New Mexico is playing well right now. They still have moments, but the talent level between these two is farther apart than usual. Give me the Lobos.
North Carolina(-6.5) at Duke
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Duke has been a little all over the place this year. North Carolina has been consistent. Their offense is as advertised. Their defense is a disaster. Jalen Calhoun needs to have a big game for the Blue Devils, but I still don't think it's enough. Give me UNC.
Washington State at Oregon State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Beavers being favored means that Chance Nolan is likely back. I've been pretty impressed with the Washington State team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. I still like the Cougars outright, but it's going to be close. The extra half makes me like this line a little more than I should. It's all I can do to rein the bet back this far.
Air Force(-9.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is slowly climbing, but it likely should be climbing faster. UNLV has fallen apart after a strong start. They probably should have lost to New Mexico and got hammered by San Jose State. Air Force is more San Jose State than New Mexico. Give me the Falcons.
San Jose State(-8.5) at Fresno State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Speaking of the Spartans...even if Jake Haener is back, this is too low. The Bulldogs can't run enough, nor can they handle the balance of San Jose State. Give me the Spartans.
Nevada(-6.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nevada getting points on the islands, huh? Why? Hawaii looked like a much better team against a much better opponent last week. I believe in what Timmy Chang is building out there a lot more than Nevada right now. Give me Hawaii outright at home. It won't be pretty, but it might be fun to watch.
I only have four one-point bets this week, so I'm wagering a little more than usual. I'm heavy in the middle again with 20 two-point bets and 19 three-pointers. I only maxed out one bet on Wisconsin, but seven on the four line will give me enough action.
There's still enough for a decent parlay today. I have Wisconsin as the one you really want with Clemson, North Carolina, and USC as my favorites to go with. I really like the Oklahoma State moneyline too.
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