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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 11 of the 2023 season (11/11/23). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We have a monster Saturday with 54 games on tap this week. Ole Miss takes on Georgia for the first time in seven years. Oklahoma is in real danger of dropping their third straight game. The Seminole War Canoe is on the line. Most of all, Michigan finally plays a good team! That alone is enough reason to pay attention this week.
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I lost some points last week, but am still above water on the season. The sheet isn't quite updated yet and likely won't be until I get my second monitor back. It's an arduous process at times.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 11 (November 11, 2023)
(3) Michigan (-4.5) at (10) Penn State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The game isn't at night and isn't a whiteout. That's an epic fail for Fox. It also significantly favors Michigan. I'll take the Wolverines. You know they spied on Penn State.
(8) Alabama (-10.5) at Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This would be a typical trap game if that sort of thing existed at Alabama. It doesn't. Tide roll!
Texas Tech at (16) Kansas (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If this game were in Lubbock I might be nervous. It's not, so I'm not. Give me Kansas.
Tulsa at (23) Tulane (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know that Tulsa just lost to Charlotte, but this has to be too many. Tulane hasn't won by two touchdowns since September 23. Give me Tulsa.
Indiana at Illinois (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wait a minute...didn't Indiana just beat Wisconsin? Give me the Hoosiers.
Maryland (-2.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This should be an easy win for Maryland, but that defense has not played well. I'll take Maryland but lower the bet.
Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels too easy. Vandy is worse than the Jacksonville State team that South Carolina just beat. Give me the Cocks.
Virginia Tech (-1.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I was hoping to catch this line with BC favored and hammer the other side of it, but close enough. Give me the Hokies.
Georgia Tech at Clemson (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Too many. This has letdown written all over it. Clemson might not lose, but this stays close.
Temple at South Florida (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Don't mind me...I'm just here for E.J. Warner vs. Byrum Brown. Give me USF.
Old Dominion at Liberty (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high, but it probably isn't. Kaidon Salter and that Liberty offense is really good. Give me Liberty (or give me death!).
(21) Arizona (-10.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This would be the most Deion thing ever to bust this spread. Considering they did against UCLA and Oregon State, I'll stay with the same trend and say Colorado stays within single digits. I'm not really confident in it though.
Connecticut at James Madison (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is all over the place and rightfully so. JMU wins, but I have no clue by how much. Give me UConn, but I wouldn't touch this with your money.
North Carolina State (-2.5) at Wake Forest
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Too low. The Wolfpack aren't capable of rolling, but they can win by 10 and made it feel like they did.
Memphis (-9.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Too low. Charlotte beating Tulsa wasn't a fluke, but Tulsa is seriously bad. Give me Memphis.
Appalachian State at Georgia State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Better judgment tells me to leave this one alone. App State is about as far from consistent as you can get. Give me Georgia State at home, but this is a winnable game for the Mountaineers.
Troy (-21.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vegas finally caught up to Troy. This feels a touch high on the road. Give me Monroe.
Baylor at (25) Kansas State (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow! Didn't expect this one. It's warranted, but the four-point jump already makes me nervous. I'll take K-State but lower the bet.
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nah. Give me Sam Houston to not get covered!
Nevada at Utah State (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Pack got whacked by Hawaii at home last week. The win streak is over. Give me the Aggies.
Miami (FL) at (4) Florida State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FSU struggling with Pitt was not a good look, but it's no worse than Miami getting steamrolled in Raleigh. Give me the Noles.
(18) Utah at (5) Washington (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has fallen by varying degrees since opening at -10.5. It should. Washington is going to have their hands full with a team that plays defense. Give me Utah. I don't expect an outright win, but I do expect a one-score game.
(13) Tennessee (-1.5) at (14) Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Yeah...not happening. LSU going into Columbia and winning is one thing. Tennessee has struggled on the road. Give me Missouri outright.
(15) Oklahoma State (-2.5) at Central Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Knights have one of the worst run defenses in the Big 12. The Cowboys have Ollie Gordon. Don't make this hard. OSU rolls!
Rutgers at (22) Iowa (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line broke Vegas. Everyone was slamming the under 28.5 and this has been yanked in many places. It's now too low after opening at -5.5. Iowa wins 13-6 on a defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter. I'd smash the under on this too unless it gets around 20 or so.
Florida International at Middle Tennessee State (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really don't like that half. Give me MTSU, but I'm not touching this.
Minnesota at Purdue (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I firmly believe that neither team really wants to win this game and they will spend 60 minutes trying to make the other team take the game. Give me Minnesota.
Northwestern at Wisconsin (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Once again, this is too many whether Braelon Allen plays or not. Wisconsin's issues run so much deeper than running back depth.
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The more I think about it, the more I think WKU might lose this outright. The Aggies are rolling and WKU can't run the ball. Give me the Aggies.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line opened at -3.5 the other way and should have stayed there. Give me the Orange outright.
UAB (-2.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'll bite. UAB by a lot more than that!
Texas State (-2.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't buy the Bobcats as road warriors yet. Give me CCU.
Auburn at Arkansas (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'll take the Piggies at home. Auburn is getting better, but they aren't winning in Fayetteville good yet.
Washington State at California (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I get it. The Cougars have fallen apart at the seams lately and Cal has a quarterback in Fernando Mendoza. Give me Cal.
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like this more if it drops below seven, but ECU hasn't played well on the road. I'll take FAU.
Arkansas State at South Alabama (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a bit high, but USA has been money at home. Give me the Jags.
Stanford at (12) Oregon State (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't really like this line. Yes, the Beavers are good enough to cover this. Stanford has played better lately, but I don't think it's enough. I'll take the Beavers and lower the bet.
(9) Mississippi at (2) Georgia (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I want to say that Ole Miss can keep it this close, but I doubt it. Alabama covered them by this line in Tuscaloosa. Georgia should be able to do so in Athens.
West Virginia at (17) Oklahoma (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high, especially when I wouldn't be shocked if Oklahoma lost outright. Give me West Virginia.
Cincinnati at Houston (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Houston isn't getting a lot of respect. Sure, Cincinnati's defense is good, but the good things stop there. Give me Houston by a lot more than this!
Georgia Southern (-1.5) at Marshall
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a tough one. I usually like the Herd at home, but I don't know that Rasheen Ali is completely healthy. He hasn't been running as well as he did at the start of the season. Give me GSU.
San Diego State at Colorado State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not surprised. The Aztecs keep dropping games that they should win. I'll say that trend continues. Give me Colorado State.
Michigan State at (1) Ohio State (-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Buckeyes are notorious for not covering lines like this. I'll take Sparty, but I'm not touching this.
(7) Texas (-12.5) at TCU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Even TCU's fans don't think they can pull this off. I know that TCU has been a thorn in the foot of Texas since the inception of the Big 12(14). However, this is the best Texas team since 2005. I think the Longhorns take care of business, but I'm lowering the bet a little just in case the conspiracy theorists are right.
Florida at (19) LSU (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That hook doesn't even bother me. That's how much better LSU is than Florida.
Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
With or without Will Rogers, this seems high. A&M can't get out of their own way lately. Give me the Bulldogs.
Rice at UTSA (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high. Give me Rice.
Duke at (24) North Carolina (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Something tells me that the Tarheels are going to come out swinging. Even if they do, Duke withstands the blows. Their defense is good and Carolina's is a polar opposite. Give me Duke.
Arizona State at UCLA (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Too many. Give me the Fun Devils.
New Mexico at Boise State (-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ouch. Yuck. All of the above. Give me Boise, I guess...
Iowa State (-8.5) at BYU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. The Cougars have never been hit by a Cyclone before.
USC at (6) Oregon (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like the hook, but I do like Oregon. Give me the Ducks.
Fresno State at San Jose State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I wasn't expecting this. I was still expecting the Bulldogs to be favorites. Give me Fresno.
Air Force (-19.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This looks high. I'll take the Warriors at home.
I have 23 bets each of two and three points. I only took the chicken way out on four of these, so I'll be laying some action tomorrow. I ended up with nine four-point bets and five five-point bets again this week. I need to hit more than one of those...
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