RADIO
Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at PGA National. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Cognizant Classic outright betting card.
The three names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment (including potential in-tournament additions). Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 22 outright winners (a 21.5% hit rate) for a profit of nearly $16,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 43.1%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Cognizant Classic!
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Cognizant Classic Betting Card
Russell Henley (28-1)
Here comes Russell Henley 👀
The 2013 @SonyOpenHawaii champion grabs a share of the lead with an eagle on No. 9. pic.twitter.com/BiQBANBVCm
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 14, 2024
I'm proud to say after experiencing my second Russell Henley heartbreak in three years around Sedgefield, I've managed to go six months without throwing a cent into this particular money pit. We very nearly paid the price around another Sedgefield-comp. course at Wai'alae, as Russell came just one shot short of the three-man playoff eventually won by Grayson Murray. And as we come to another of his favorite historical haunts, I find myself compelled to give Russell another chance.
If you read through my Scouting the Routing article posted Monday morning here on RotoBaller, you'll almost certainly have had Henley pop into your head at some point between the sections in which I emphasize the importance of reliable driving, middle iron play, and bermudagrass putting, and if not, perhaps you've erased him from your conscious entirely in outright betting discussions.
I won't argue with the prudence of that particular school of thought, as Henley is deservedly maligned for his penchant for coming up just short in spots like these. However, if you do believe in the inherent randomness of the final results in professional golf, Russell certainly has a case as the most proven player in this field when it comes to arriving at the final hurdle with a chance. He's recorded an astounding nine top-twelve finishes in 11 starts since 2020 at the likes of Sedgefield, Waialae, and PGA National: all golf courses with a similar formula of positional driving, bermudagrass putting, and middle irons, and in his last start in an elevated field at Riviera, Henley gained 3.4 strokes on approach: his best iron week since last year's TOUR Championship.
Simply put, there isn't a single statistical marker that would point you away from Russell Henley this week, only his reputation for causing golf bettors an immense amount of pain. I'm willing to throw myself back into the fire at a venue where he's already found victory lane and recorded some of the best approach/putting splits of his career over his last two starts. Whether you decide to tail this outright bet at 28/1, or pick a different avenue with Henley in various derivatives, I think you'd be doing yourself a disservice to enter the week without any exposure to the 34-year-old Georgian.
Eric Cole (33-1)
Eric Cole TIES THE LEAD with an outstanding birdie make from just under 70 feet out! 🔥
📺: Golf Channel and @peacock pic.twitter.com/0WMHhlgQKF
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) February 26, 2023
What a difference a year makes, as last year's runner-up here at PGA National has spent the past 12 months catapulting himself from relative obscurity into the limelight as one of this week's marquee names. The 2023 PGA Rookie of the Year had his "Hello World," moment in a heartbreaking playoff loss to Chris Kirk, and looking back on his profile with the benefit of a larger sample, it comes as no surprise that Eric Cole's best chance at a Tour win to date came around these links.
When isolating for middle iron play and bermudagrass putting, there isn't anyone in the field who has proven to have the same sort of upside in the last twelve months. Cole comes in at number four in my weighted proximity modeling, he ranks in the 94th percentile (on the entire PGA Tour) in Strokes Gained per Shot from 150-200 yards, and comes into this week on a run of three straight events gaining at least 3.5 strokes putting on similar Bermuda surfaces (Sony, Kapalua, RSM).
The driver has historically been the part of Eric's game that has kept him from contending at some of the Tour's bigger venues, but at positional, club-down courses like we'll see this week, he's put together an impressive track record of OTT splits over the last 12 months:
- +3.2 at the 2024 Sony Open
- +1.7 at 2023 FedEx St. Jude
- +3.6 at last year's RBC Canadian
- +2.8 at 2023 PLAYERS
- +2.3 last year at the Honda (now Cognizant), Classic
Eric hasn't gotten the same taste of contention that he experienced in three straight starts to end the fall swing, but top 15 finishes at each of the Tour's first three signature events (Sentry/Pebble/Genesis), indicate he's not far away from giving himself another golden chance at that breakthrough win. With unfinished business squarely on his mind this year, a triumph around PGA National would make for the storybook ending for the Delray Beach native.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Corey Conners (50-1)
Corey Conners nearly dunked it from 197 yards out at the par-3 4th. The Canadian has started fast in R1 with with three birdies on his first four holes.
P.S., the hole was repaired right after. pic.twitter.com/OfunPvYibf
— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) August 10, 2023
It's not often you can make a case for a player priced at 50-1 as the best overall ball-striker in a given field, but that's exactly what we've got this week with Corey Conners. Over the last 6, 9, and 12 months, Conners ranks inside the top three in total ball striking, and hasn't lost strokes with his driver since last year's PLAYERS Championship -- equating to 21 starts and 352 days.
This metronomic ability off of the tee has made Corey a consistent threat at similarly penal venues to PGA National (Sawgrass, Bay Hill, Harbour Town, and even TPC San Antonio -- the site of his only two career wins which features one of the highest miss penalties on the PGA Tour).
Conners also rates out as an elite option from our key approach ranges of 150-200 yards, ranking in the top 20% on Tour in all four of my key iron metrics:
- 80th percentile in Strokes Gained/Shot
- 91st percentile in Proximity to the Hole
- 92nd percentile in Green in Regulation Percentage
- 87th percentile in Poor Shot Avoidance
At a golf course where so much ground can be gained by simply keeping the ball in play, Conners' reliability makes him the perfect candidate to plot his way around PGA National's many landmines. Corey ranked seventh in Riviera's star-studded field in SG: Approach and fourth in Total Ball Striking. If he continues to swing the club that well this week, there's no reason he can't carry over his stellar Bay Hill/Sawgrass resume to Florida's southeast coast.
Sepp Straka (50-1)
Sepp Straka to solo 2nd and 17-under with a nice birdie putt from distance on the 17th. 🐤
📺: NBC & @peacock | #HeroWorldChallenge pic.twitter.com/mJYu3gw4M3
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) December 3, 2023
Continuing down the road of stellar course fits who seem to raise their baselines as we head into the Tour's southeastern stretch, Sepp Straka will be looking for his third consecutive deep run here at the Cognizant Classic. The 30-year-old Austrian earned his first-ever PGA Tour victory right here at PGA National two years ago, and defended that title admirably in 2023 -- recording a fifth-place finish whilst gaining a season-best 7.6 shots on approach.
When you take a deep dive into Straka's underlying splits, it comes as no surprise why he's continually found success around Palm Beach's treacherous confines. From our key approach range of 150-200 yards, Straka ranks fifth in the field in Proximity, second in Green in Regulation rate, and fourth in Strokes Gained per Shot. He's also found his most consistent putting success on bermudagrass greens -- a fact that shouldn't be surprising given Sepp's Georgia roots, and has gained an average of 3.45 strokes off of the tee over his last four Honda starts.
The putter was the main limiting factor in Straka's underwhelming stretch on the West Coast, but around more familiar confines here in Palm Beach Gardens, I the ceiling we all anticipated from Sepp following his breakout 2023 campaign to be put into full view. There isn't a better course fit on the Tour schedule for the Vienna native, and at 50-1, books are still pricing him well below his current status as a top 25 player on the planet.
Adam Svensson (60-1)
Adam Svensson rolls it in from 21 feet on 17 for his third straight birdie. 🐤
📺: #THEPLAYERS | Golf Channel and @peacock pic.twitter.com/zMY8bAoKGC
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 9, 2023
For many of us who tend to take a mathematical viewpoint to golf betting, Adam Svensson has consistently popped up as a name to monitor through 2024's opening stretch. He rates out as a top-five ball striker in this field over his last 36 rounds, and his evergreen reliability off of the tee makes him a perfect candidate for a breakthrough as we shift into four weeks around a state that stresses your positional driving acumen more than anywhere in the world.
Like many of the names we've already mentioned, though, Svensson doesn't just come with a captivating ball-striking profile for PGA National, he also possesses an intriguing bit of upside with this week's agronomic shift to bermudagrass. Svensson has recorded eight of the 12 best putting weeks of his career on Bermuda courses and logged the second-best tee-to-green performance of his entire career (+11.8) right here two years ago.
His prowess around the Sunshine State should come as no surprise for the Barry University alumni (and current PBG resident). As he rides into this week on the back of a 10th-place finish at Riviera (ranking fifth from T2G in the process), Svensson's game seems to be in the best place it's ever been for a successful homecoming.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (80-1)
Bezuidenhout with a clutch birdie at the 18th to force Nick Dunlap to make a par to win. #TheAmExGolfpic.twitter.com/NhAPVqGDCz
— Golf On Tap (@OnTapGolf) January 21, 2024
If you read my Course Preview piece early Monday morning that touted him at any price >50-1, Christiaan Bezuidenhout would have stood out as one of the best values on the board as lines opened in the 80-90 range. We don't have a "Most-Improved" award in the game of golf, but if the PGA Tour wanted to hand out an accolade for the fastest-rising iron player, Bezuidenhout would certainly be among the academy frontrunners. Over the last 12 months, Christiaan has gained 2.1 strokes per tournament on approach -- over 2x his career baseline, and at PGA National in particular, he seems perfectly set up to continue that run.
Bezuidenhout ranks sixth in this field in my weighted proximity modeling, but perhaps more importantly this week, he rates out in the top 20% on the PGA Tour in both Green in Regulation rate and Poor Shot Avoidance from 150-200 yards. This proven reliability for avoiding trouble will serve him well around this treacherous layout, especially when coupled with the driving prowess he's recently shown around more positional venues. Bezuidenhout's recorded the 1st and 4th best off-the-tee weeks of his career at PGA National over the last two seasons, and many of his recent spikes OTT (which are admittedly few and far between), have come at the likes of Colonial, Harbour Town, TPC Deer Run, and TPC Summerlin -- all courses that allow you the opportunity to club down for position and feature above average missed fairway penalties.
If these ball-striking trends continue, the 29-year-old South African sets up perfectly for a potential breakout in the Sunshine State. He's recorded some of his best finishes to date around the penal links of Bay Hill and Sawgrass already, and his historic short-game proficiency on bermudagrass makes him an everpresent threat when scoring conditions get difficult. If you can secure any price near where his line opened Monday morning, I'd consider it one of the best values on the odds board.
Best of luck guys, and happy hunting!
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