X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 Cognizant Classic

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at PGA National. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Cognizant Classic outright betting card.

The three names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment (including potential in-tournament additions). Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 22 outright winners (a 21.5% hit rate) for a profit of nearly $16,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 43.1%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Cognizant Classic!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Cognizant Classic Betting Card

Russell Henley (28-1)

I'm proud to say after experiencing my second Russell Henley heartbreak in three years around Sedgefield, I've managed to go six months without throwing a cent into this particular money pit. We very nearly paid the price around another Sedgefield-comp. course at Wai'alae, as Russell came just one shot short of the three-man playoff eventually won by Grayson Murray. And as we come to another of his favorite historical haunts, I find myself compelled to give Russell another chance.

If you read through my Scouting the Routing article posted Monday morning here on RotoBaller, you'll almost certainly have had Henley pop into your head at some point between the sections in which I emphasize the importance of reliable driving, middle iron play, and bermudagrass putting, and if not, perhaps you've erased him from your conscious entirely in outright betting discussions.

I won't argue with the prudence of that particular school of thought, as Henley is deservedly maligned for his penchant for coming up just short in spots like these. However, if you do believe in the inherent randomness of the final results in professional golf, Russell certainly has a case as the most proven player in this field when it comes to arriving at the final hurdle with a chance. He's recorded an astounding nine top-twelve finishes in 11 starts since 2020 at the likes of Sedgefield, Waialae, and PGA National: all golf courses with a similar formula of positional driving, bermudagrass putting, and middle irons, and in his last start in an elevated field at Riviera, Henley gained 3.4 strokes on approach: his best iron week since last year's TOUR Championship.

Simply put, there isn't a single statistical marker that would point you away from Russell Henley this week, only his reputation for causing golf bettors an immense amount of pain. I'm willing to throw myself back into the fire at a venue where he's already found victory lane and recorded some of the best approach/putting splits of his career over his last two starts. Whether you decide to tail this outright bet at 28/1, or pick a different avenue with Henley in various derivatives, I think you'd be doing yourself a disservice to enter the week without any exposure to the 34-year-old Georgian.

 

Eric Cole (33-1)

What a difference a year makes, as last year's runner-up here at PGA National has spent the past 12 months catapulting himself from relative obscurity into the limelight as one of this week's marquee names. The 2023 PGA Rookie of the Year had his "Hello World," moment in a heartbreaking playoff loss to Chris Kirk, and looking back on his profile with the benefit of a larger sample, it comes as no surprise that Eric Cole's best chance at a Tour win to date came around these links.

When isolating for middle iron play and bermudagrass putting, there isn't anyone in the field who has proven to have the same sort of upside in the last twelve months. Cole comes in at number four in my weighted proximity modeling, he ranks in the 94th percentile (on the entire PGA Tour) in Strokes Gained per Shot from 150-200 yards, and comes into this week on a run of three straight events gaining at least 3.5 strokes putting on similar Bermuda surfaces (Sony, Kapalua, RSM).

The driver has historically been the part of Eric's game that has kept him from contending at some of the Tour's bigger venues, but at positional, club-down courses like we'll see this week, he's put together an impressive track record of OTT splits over the last 12 months:

  • +3.2 at the 2024 Sony Open
  • +1.7 at 2023 FedEx St. Jude
  • +3.6 at last year's RBC Canadian
  • +2.8 at 2023 PLAYERS
  • +2.3 last year at the Honda (now Cognizant), Classic

Eric hasn't gotten the same taste of contention that he experienced in three straight starts to end the fall swing, but top 15 finishes at each of the Tour's first three signature events (Sentry/Pebble/Genesis), indicate he's not far away from giving himself another golden chance at that breakthrough win. With unfinished business squarely on his mind this year, a triumph around PGA National would make for the storybook ending for the Delray Beach native.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

 

Corey Conners (50-1)

It's not often you can make a case for a player priced at 50-1 as the best overall ball-striker in a given field, but that's exactly what we've got this week with Corey Conners. Over the last 6, 9, and 12 months, Conners ranks inside the top three in total ball striking, and hasn't lost strokes with his driver since last year's PLAYERS Championship -- equating to 21 starts and 352 days.

This metronomic ability off of the tee has made Corey a consistent threat at similarly penal venues to PGA National (Sawgrass, Bay Hill, Harbour Town, and even TPC San Antonio -- the site of his only two career wins which features one of the highest miss penalties on the PGA Tour).

Conners also rates out as an elite option from our key approach ranges of 150-200 yards, ranking in the top 20% on Tour in all four of my key iron metrics:

  • 80th percentile in Strokes Gained/Shot
  • 91st percentile in Proximity to the Hole
  • 92nd percentile in Green in Regulation Percentage
  • 87th percentile in Poor Shot Avoidance

At a golf course where so much ground can be gained by simply keeping the ball in play, Conners' reliability makes him the perfect candidate to plot his way around PGA National's many landmines. Corey ranked seventh in Riviera's star-studded field in SG: Approach and fourth in Total Ball Striking. If he continues to swing the club that well this week, there's no reason he can't carry over his stellar Bay Hill/Sawgrass resume to Florida's southeast coast.

Sepp Straka (50-1)

Continuing down the road of stellar course fits who seem to raise their baselines as we head into the Tour's southeastern stretch, Sepp Straka will be looking for his third consecutive deep run here at the Cognizant Classic. The 30-year-old Austrian earned his first-ever PGA Tour victory right here at PGA National two years ago, and defended that title admirably in 2023 -- recording a fifth-place finish whilst gaining a season-best 7.6 shots on approach.

When you take a deep dive into Straka's underlying splits, it comes as no surprise why he's continually found success around Palm Beach's treacherous confines. From our key approach range of 150-200 yards, Straka ranks fifth in the field in Proximity, second in Green in Regulation rate, and fourth in Strokes Gained per Shot. He's also found his most consistent putting success on bermudagrass greens -- a fact that shouldn't be surprising given Sepp's Georgia roots, and has gained an average of 3.45 strokes off of the tee over his last four Honda starts.

The putter was the main limiting factor in Straka's underwhelming stretch on the West Coast, but around more familiar confines here in Palm Beach Gardens, I the ceiling we all anticipated from Sepp following his breakout 2023 campaign to be put into full view. There isn't a better course fit on the Tour schedule for the Vienna native, and at 50-1, books are still pricing him well below his current status as a top 25 player on the planet.

 

Adam Svensson (60-1)

For many of us who tend to take a mathematical viewpoint to golf betting, Adam Svensson has consistently popped up as a name to monitor through 2024's opening stretch. He rates out as a top-five ball striker in this field over his last 36 rounds, and his evergreen reliability off of the tee makes him a perfect candidate for a breakthrough as we shift into four weeks around a state that stresses your positional driving acumen more than anywhere in the world.

Like many of the names we've already mentioned, though, Svensson doesn't just come with a captivating ball-striking profile for PGA National, he also possesses an intriguing bit of upside with this week's agronomic shift to bermudagrass. Svensson has recorded eight of the 12 best putting weeks of his career on Bermuda courses and logged the second-best tee-to-green performance of his entire career (+11.8) right here two years ago.

His prowess around the Sunshine State should come as no surprise for the Barry University alumni (and current PBG resident). As he rides into this week on the back of a 10th-place finish at Riviera (ranking fifth from T2G in the process), Svensson's game seems to be in the best place it's ever been for a successful homecoming.

 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (80-1)

If you read my Course Preview piece early Monday morning that touted him at any price >50-1, Christiaan Bezuidenhout would have stood out as one of the best values on the board as lines opened in the 80-90 range. We don't have a "Most-Improved" award in the game of golf, but if the PGA Tour wanted to hand out an accolade for the fastest-rising iron player, Bezuidenhout would certainly be among the academy frontrunners. Over the last 12 months, Christiaan has gained 2.1 strokes per tournament on approach -- over 2x his career baseline, and at PGA National in particular, he seems perfectly set up to continue that run.

Bezuidenhout ranks sixth in this field in my weighted proximity modeling, but perhaps more importantly this week, he rates out in the top 20% on the PGA Tour in both Green in Regulation rate and Poor Shot Avoidance from 150-200 yards. This proven reliability for avoiding trouble will serve him well around this treacherous layout, especially when coupled with the driving prowess he's recently shown around more positional venues. Bezuidenhout's recorded the 1st and 4th best off-the-tee weeks of his career at PGA National over the last two seasons, and many of his recent spikes OTT (which are admittedly few and far between), have come at the likes of Colonial, Harbour Town, TPC Deer Run, and TPC Summerlin -- all courses that allow you the opportunity to club down for position and feature above average missed fairway penalties.

If these ball-striking trends continue, the 29-year-old South African sets up perfectly for a potential breakout in the Sunshine State. He's recorded some of his best finishes to date around the penal links of Bay Hill and Sawgrass already, and his historic short-game proficiency on bermudagrass makes him an everpresent threat when scoring conditions get difficult. If you can secure any price near where his line opened Monday morning, I'd consider it one of the best values on the odds board.

 

Best of luck guys, and happy hunting!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP