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John Johnson breaks down fantasy football rookie sleepers and risers for Week 5 of 2024. Which NFL rookies from 2024 could be fantasy football league winners?
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So when last week's Rookie Report column told you to buy Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. with urgency, the author hoped you would follow his recommendation. If you did, congratulations, you now have a sure-fire starter at the wide receiver position. It didn't hurt that Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy was recommended as well.
Thomas had a huge day, catching six passes on nine targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. Thomas was again a focal point of the offense and now has settled into a great tandem role with fellow wideout Christian Kirk. The former LSU Tiger showed that he's a stud. Buckle in; this is a long one. Let's dive in to find more league-winners.
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How Can I Find Rookie League Winners?
Read this article and take the actionable advice. Usually, rookies who are drafted highly have a better chance of succeeding, but as Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua showed us last year, draft capital isn't everything. Situation matters, talent matters, volume matters.
The rookies are the most difficult players to predict, and thus, seeing an uptick in their volume, whether it be snaps, targets, routes run, or total opportunities, can give you insight into what teams think about their players. The paid staff evaluating their roster talent tend to get a pretty good idea of what they're working with.
Let's dive into this week's rookies, to which you should be paying attention. There are numerous that can be had for cheaply or nearly free that you should be paying attention to. Buying them or picking them up to stash on your bench could prove to be a league-winning move.
Buy Window Closing: Brian Thomas Jr.
Last week's edition of this column urged you to do whatever you could to buy Thomas. If you didn't, you're missing out. Thomas is solidly a big part of the Jags offense now, and QB Trevor Lawrence has targeted him nine times each in the past two games. That's fantastic usage for a wide receiver.
Thomas is also getting high-quality targets. He's a speedster, and his ability to stack corners and beat them immediately off the line with consistency is huge for the offense. It also allows him to run comebacks because DBs are afraid of his speed and slants or crossers to just outrun poor defensive backs.
Brian Thomas Jr. truly might already be one of the most terrifying coverage assignments in the NFL pic.twitter.com/cUeffQSCt5
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 30, 2024
Missed opportunities like this complete pass are to be expected as "TLaw" adjusts to "BTJr's" speed. But he could have had multiple huge games had a few missed plays gone his way or if elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey of the Miami Dolphins hadn't committed pass interference on Thomas in Week 1.
Brian Thomas Jr wins against Jalen Ramsey because he immediately stacks when coming out of his release. His speed off the line is scary good. pic.twitter.com/7kSpQdFG1A
— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) September 10, 2024
Stats are not everything. These plays are a screaming, flashing, warning signal with massive flags flying everywhere reading BUY THIS GUY. It's a bit late, and his price has likely significantly increased in your leagues. They may be demanding more than he's worth. And his next matchup is with the Indianapolis Colts.
Perimeter WRs have CRUSHED the Colts:
• George Pickens: 7/113/0
• Rome Odunze: 6/112/1
• Nico Collins: 6/117/0Welcome to Brian Thomas Jr. week 🚀 pic.twitter.com/6t13sEYxjI
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) October 3, 2024
If he has another big game against them, and he has a great chance of doing so, the buy cheap window could slam shut.
Buy Window Closing: Xavier Worthy
The injury to Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy's crucial second big game of the season has made it much harder to acquire him. Fantasy managers now likely have him locked into their lineups, knowing more opportunities should be coming his way and seeing him catch another long touchdown.
Explosive plays are so valuable, and one of the fastest receivers in the league is now paired with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Sound familiar? Managers now probably think they have the next Tyreek Hill (or at least Reek Lite) on their team, and it will be much harder to pry him from their hands.
What is Xavier Worthy’s fantasy value if Rashee misses the season?
pic.twitter.com/e4w3IQ6Mu9— PredictionStrike (@PredictStrike) September 29, 2024
Your last chance was probably Week 3. His price will be way higher now. Hope you got him.
Buy Window Extended: Jonathon Brooks
There isn't a whole lot to say here, but Carolina Panthers rookie running back Jonathon Brooks will not have his practice window opened this week and, thus, will not be eligible to return to play in Week 5. With current lead back Chuba Hubbard doing a great job, it's likely that the Panthers don't want to rush along his recovery.
#Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard touches on what he’s seen out of rookie Jonathon Brooks (@2brookss) as he continues to work his way back from injury.
“He’s stayed in it. Learning the playbook, asking the questions & working hard. Once he hits the field, the sky is the limit.”
Full… pic.twitter.com/8Mi1wLFlQN
— Gabe McDonald (@GabeMcDonald_) October 3, 2024
He could be even cheaper to buy now. If fantasy managers in your leagues are disappointed that their draft pick will be out for at least one more week than they expected, you should capitalize on that. Brooks has a ton of talent as a three-down back and obviously the correct mindset to succeed.
Buy Window Extended: Bucky Irving
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers played on Thursday, so this column now has two games to process. Irving had a solid game in Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles, scoring 12.50 PPR fantasy points as his role in the offense continued to grow. He rushed for 49 yards on ten carries and a touchdown, catching one pass for six yards.
He was less than stellar in Week 5 in a Thursday night matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. He rushed nine times for 44 yards and caught two passes for twelve yards but fumbled the ball away once. He actually beat his yardage total from Week 4, but the fumble is a significant setback.
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on what he said to Bucky Irving after the game:
“Nothing. It happens. He fumbled. I mean, we gotta play defense. It’s gonna be a part of the ballgame. He’s one of our better players — you give the ball to him every time, you hope he comes through. In this… pic.twitter.com/tKZ02R5Mnv
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 4, 2024
He was also tackled short of the goal line twice on red zone carries. His size is a liability on plays like this, and he's not pushing forward on or breaking tackles of 250+ pound defenders. Irving will need to work on his ball security issues and the offensive line will need to run block better or the offensive staff draw up better play calls in the red zone for him.
It's good to see head coach Todd Bowles express faith in the "Buckster." This also could be one of his worst games of the season. It was a negative game script with tons of passing volume. There were 610 total passing yards. Better days should be ahead, and you can buy him for extremely cheap now or possibly pick him up off waivers.
His upside will be higher when he gets more worked into the offense. It just takes time. You have to be patient. He's absolutely worth a bench stash and the low price you'd have to pay for him (or nothing if he gets dropped to waivers, which is a real possibility).
Sleeper: Adonai Mitchell
After a few gaffes and unfortunate inabilities to connect with quarterback Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell was essentially relegated to a bench role, though that may have had more to do with the return of second-year wideout Josh Downs.
That being said, Mitchell is putting some ridiculous moves on tape that have caught the attention of deep-diving fantasy analysts. Adonai has been roasting whichever poor defensive backs have been matched up with him. His athleticism is absolutely ridiculous. He looks like Gumby when you pause the video at right around 0:02.
Adonai Mitchell shake stem slice pic.twitter.com/v6Uj2faBi5
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) October 1, 2024
The coaches have noticed this, and it's just a matter of time before he gets more worked into the offense. It's likely that he'll slowly start to take over fellow WR Alec Pierce's role, who's very fast but doesn't possess the route-running skills Mitchell has.
#Colts OC Jim Bob Cooter on the lack of production from AD Mitchell:
“You just look at his body of work, individually, and he’s doing such a great job of winning those one-on-ones and getting open and separating, and it just hasn’t quite happened as often as any of us would have… pic.twitter.com/8CxRwBKemN
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 1, 2024
He's just available for free on a lot of waivers. He runs a 4.35 and is in an offense with elite offensive minds Shane Steichen and Jim Bob Cooter, who have expressed intentions to get him more involved. And if lead QB Richardson gets hurt and Joe Flacco starts, every Colts WR has huge upside.
AD himself has rare upside for his price (only rostered in 24% of leagues). He deserves a bench spot in every league. It may take a while for him to break out though, but he could have some outlandishly big games at some point.
So What Should I Do If I Want To Win My League?
Continue monitoring these rookies. Buy the ones that have bad games. Hope you already picked up Thomas or Worthy while you had the chance, because typically once a player has two good games fantasy managers start taking them much more seriously. Acquire the cheap ones and dump bad players from your benches.
Rookies are tough to figure out, which means there are more chances for the upside to be hidden. That's why it's so important to chase them. It only takes one to break out to change your season, and it's a hell of a lot better to go after them than cycle through mediocre veterans all season, hoping a fourth or fifth-year JAG breaks out.
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