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John Johnson breaks down fantasy football rookie sleepers and risers for Week 4 of 2024. Which NFL rookies from 2024 could be fantasy football league winners?
As stated in last week's column, rookies provide massive value for fantasy managers because they can often be acquired cheaply and have a much higher chance of outperforming their ADPs. There's no previous NFL tape or statistics to lean on, so rookies can be difficult for fantasy managers to evaluate.
There are many fantasy-relevant rookies every year, and fantasy managers mostly ignore a good chunk of them until they have their first big breakout game and it's too late to attempt to trade for them for a great deal. This year is no exception. We've already seen promising results from some rookies.
Make sure you read further if you want to win your league. The search for the next Puka Nacua is a never-ending journey, but the rewards are well worth the effort. Which rookies should you target who could become league winners? Let's dive in.
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How Can I Find Rookie League Winners?
There are a few methods, and each week, things change. This is the point of the season where there are still rookies who have yet to break out, and the buy windows for them keep being extended as long as they have mediocre production. Sometimes it isn't all the player's fault.
Some are stuck in bad situations and may never break out, but some rookies are affected by small miscues, lack of chemistry with the quarterbacks and teams, or having been selected lower in the draft.
The saying usually goes "Players drafted early have to prove they can't play, and players drafted late have to prove they can play." One rookie seems to be embodying this perfectly so far in 2024. Read to the end to find out who he is. You don't want to miss the other stuff that comes before it, either. Let's dive in.
Buy With Urgency: Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were obliterated by the Buffalo Bills 47-10 on Monday night. Thomas's managers shouldn't have expected him to have a breakout, but the results of the game were very encouraging for him. The Bills have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, so it's not a surprise they handled Thomas.
Lowest opponent passer rating allowed by team this season:
66.2 — Bears
67.0 — Seahawks
67.8 — Saints
69.1 — BillsBears defense on TOP! pic.twitter.com/HNMmlsneca
— BearsMuse (@ChiBearsMuse) September 24, 2024
The Bills have allowed just a 69.1 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks, the fourth lowest in the league. They allow just 12 PPR fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, the fourth-lowest total in the league as well. They also allow just 4.4 yards per pass attempt by opposing teams. They are an elite defense.
It's no surprise Thomas had a somewhat quiet night, but after earning just four targets in each of his first two games, Thomas was targeted nine times in Week 3. The uptick in usage is a fantastic sign. The Jaguars won't face a defense as tough for receivers as the Bills for the rest of the season.
Grabbed the Top 25 WRs sorted by YPRR using @FTNFantasy StatsHub 👀
-Rashee Rice is running a masterclass on getting open
-Nico Collins 3.2 YPRR despite only a 25% open separation rate is incredible
-Chris Olave is heating up 🔥
-Brian Thomas = 47.1% OSep%; Lawrence will get… pic.twitter.com/kd3yBRmum1— Mike Randle (@RandleRant) September 26, 2024
Thomas has a 47.1% "Open Separation Rate," meaning he's open on nearly 50% of his routes. As time goes on, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence will connect with Thomas more. Thomas faces a much softer Houston Texans secondary in Week 4, and the chance for a boom game is much higher. He's primed for a breakout.
Damar Hamlin gets his first career INT and it happens on Monday Night Football.
AWESOME. pic.twitter.com/lwzMOkRk5S
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 24, 2024
Though Lawrence missed Thomas on this play, the fact he's getting this wide-open against an elite defense is remarkable in his rookie year. He can be acquired for cheap from disillusioned fantasy managers, and you should make it a priority to get him.
Buy Window Extended: Xavier Worthy
Worthy has shown signs he could have a great season, but the Chiefs offense as a whole is in a funk. QB Patrick Mahomes inexplicably isn't playing well. This is a good thing, because the more mediocre games Worthy has, the further his buy window gets extended.
Missed shot to Xavier Worthy on first drive
The deep post vs. 2-high typically hits skinny, but X actually gets on top of both safeties, so he has the whole field to run away from the CB
He runs the route by the book, giving the CB an angle to cut him off when Mahomes leads him… pic.twitter.com/VRcVzXSS7B
— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) September 24, 2024
Plays like these aren't uncommon for rookie receivers. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid runs a complex offensive scheme, and Worthy's speed could've converted this into a long touchdown. Worthy hasn't scored much over his first three games, but he's a threat to score on any play.
When he's given more targets, he can produce explosive plays with regularity. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce hasn't been very involved in the passing offense, so there's a lot of room for more work for Worthy. When he starts hitting his stride, he should boost the entire Chiefs offense.
Worthy hasn't scored over 5.0 PPR fantasy points in his last two games, but he hasn't had much volume, either. When that goes up, so should his production.
Surprise Star In The Making? Bucky Irving
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving has been a welcome surprise to fantasy managers looking to pick up a contributor off waivers (unless he was drafted in their leagues). Fellow RB Rachaad White was inefficient in 2023, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on the season.
He got worse in 2024. Much worse. It's atrociously bad. White is averaging an unacceptable 2.1 yards per carry. No NFL team wants to continue feeding rushes to a running back who has that dreadful of efficiency, but it takes time for situations like this to shake out each season.
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on why Rachaad White out-snapped Bucky Irving 42-18:
“We were behind. We threw it a little bit more, Rachaad’s probably a better pass protector at this point, but Bucky has definitely earned more reps.”
Bowles has an 80% reliability rating on usage/workload… pic.twitter.com/VmhGOs7aUE
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 23, 2024
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, ever trusty about player usage, has indicated The Buckster has earned more reps. He's averaged 6.2 yards per carry to White's 2.1. The pass protection is an issue, and Irving likely won't become a workhorse back, but he could thrive off ~15 touches per game if his efficiency keeps up.
Irving could end up being a solid RB2 or RB3/flex player, and a crucial depth piece to many teams. He's already dazzled with his elusiveness and can be acquired for very cheap. For what you pay for him, he could grant big returns.
Two HUGE runs by Bucky Irving and suddenly the Bucs offense is alive. This kid is going to be so good. pic.twitter.com/5a7MEZs69g
— Josh Hill (@jdavhill) September 22, 2024
Irving should be bought in all leagues if you can. Even a 50% share of the backfield touches with receiving work would be huge. 6+ yards per carry is ridiculous efficiency, and Irving could have had an even bigger day in Week 3 if he hadn't been tackled one yard short of the goal line. Get him.
So What Should I Do If I Want To Win My League?
Do what you can to get the above players. There's a ridiculous amount of upside for each one, and trading established players on the tail end of their careers who have produced nicely but have lower upside can get you way ahead in your leagues.
It's also true that many rookies aren't asked to do much in their college careers, and aren't viewed as elite prospects because of it. For example, Jags WR Brian Thomas Jr., discussed earlier, wasn't asked to run much more than "go" and "comeback" routes at LSU, but has shown fantastic route running ability in the NFL.
There are a million reasons why it's good to invest in rookies, and for those who haven't broken out, the opportunity cost is minimal. If you want to win your leagues, make sure you pick up these guys. It's just a matter of time before one of them gets a "Too Late" section in this article.
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