RADIO
Phil Clark dives into the 2024 fantasy football outlook for the Los Angeles Chargers' running game with Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and rookie Kimani Vidal competing for touches.
All 32 NFL teams have experienced varying degrees of change during the offseason. Player movement has been significant due to the process of free agency while other players have relocated into new environments due to trades. The addition of rookies during the NFL Draft has also led to modifications of every roster, while changes were also made to coaching staffs and front offices throughout the league.
This includes the extensive transformation that is unfolding with the Los Angeles Chargers as we progress toward Week 1. This process began in mid-December when general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Brandon Staley were removed from their positions following a 63-21 loss to AFC West rival Las Vegas. Los Angeles also ended the season with a five-game losing streak and finished fourth in the AFC West with a disappointing 5-12 record.
That fueled the arrival of Jim Harbaugh and new general manager Joe Hortiz, which has launched a new era for the franchise. The roster is also undergoing a significant reconstruction as the offense evolves toward an unremitting commitment to the run.
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Harbaugh is reshaping an offense that ranked 27th in run play percentage during 2023 (39.0%) while finishing 24th in attempts per game (25.4), 24th in rushing yards per game (96.6), and 27th in yards per attempt (3.8).
Those numbers were assembled during Kellen Moore’s only season as offensive coordinator after replacing Joe Lombardi in January 2023. Moore’s offense displayed only slight improvement in each category when contrasted with Lombardi’s 2022 offense, which had finished just 31st in run play percentage (34.9%), 30th in yards per game (88.4), 28th in attempts per game (23.7), and 30th in yards per attempt (3.7).
In PPR leagues, @AustinEkeler was the highest-scoring RB in @NFLFantasy last year.
Can he do it again in 2023? pic.twitter.com/NpEhoyOcVH
— NFL (@NFL) June 29, 2023
However, Harbaugh's penchant for reliance on the ground game will ignite a significant rise in each category. His rebuild of the Chargers’ attack also involves a reshaped depth chart that will not contain Austin Ekeler.
The seven-year veteran had operated without a legitimate threat to usurp his sizable role within the offense during 2023 while leading the Chargers in attempts (179/12.8 per game) and rushing yards (648/44.9 per game) for a fourth consecutive season. However, those results were also part of a universal decline that occurred with his numbers in 2023.
Ekeler had finished 12th among all backs in rushing yards (1,826/55.3 per game) and 13th in carries (410 /12.4 per game) during 2021-2022, while generating a league-high 25 touchdowns on the ground. However, he plunged to 36th in yardage last season while his average of 44.9 per game was the lowest since 2019. Ekeler also manufactured five touchdowns, representing another significant drop from his average in 2021-2022 (12.5).
Ekeler had also led his position in targets (394/6.7 per game), receptions (323/5.5 per game), receiving yards (2,765/46.9 per game), and receiving touchdowns (23) from 2019-2022. However, the Chargers finished 27th in targets to running backs last season (15.3%) after distributing a league-high 26% in 2022. This impacted Ekeler’s numbers as a receiving weapon, as he averaged 5.3 targets/3.6 receptions/31.3 yards per game and generated one touchdown.
Ekeler also tied for 20th in points per game (13.2) after averaging a league-best 21.9 per game in 2022.
Commanders signing RB Austin Ekeler to 2-year deal worth up to $11.43M. (via @TomPelissero) pic.twitter.com/53lZ0yfMSZ
— NFL (@NFL) March 11, 2024
Ekeler’s departure for Washington leaves Isaiah Spiller as the most noteworthy back from 2023 who remains on the Chargers roster. The former fourth-round pick (2022) played on 111 snaps while accumulating 37 carries (4.1 per game) and 96 rushing yards (10.7 per game) last season. He also collected all six of his targets, while generating 34 yards as a pass-catcher. It is unlikely that Spiller will emerge with an ongoing role after a trio of backs were added by Harbaugh and Hortiz during the offseason.
The Launch of a New Era
Harbaugh’s nine-year tenure at the University of Michigan included three consecutive Big Ten titles from 2021-2023, culminating in the Wolverines’ CFP National Championship.
Harbaugh had previously operated as the head coach of the 49ers from 2011 to 2014 while leading San Francisco to three consecutive NFC Championship Game appearances. Harbaugh’s 2012 team also faced Baltimore in the Super Bowl, which featured a matchup with Harbaugh’s brother, John.
ladies and gentlemen, we got him.
we’ve agreed to terms with Jim Harbaugh to be our head coach » https://t.co/cM4NZTOqKE pic.twitter.com/PTauQDWDVb
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) January 25, 2024
Hortiz served in multiple capacities with Baltimore from 1998-2023 and operated as the Ravens director of player personnel from 2019-2023. He has now joined with Harbaugh in creating a roster that will sustain a physical brand of football. This will include the development of a dominant offensive line, receiving weapons that can also function as proficient blockers and a run-heavy strategic approach.
Harbaugh’s objective for the Chargers offensive line was underscored by the team’s decision to seize Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick of the recent NFL Draft.
yessirrrr pic.twitter.com/wXKcQPdmNq
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) February 2, 2024
Alt secured a grade of 90+ from PFF during his last two seasons at Notre Dame. He also surrendered 13 total pressures on 774 pass-blocking snaps during that sequence.
Alt will be an integral component within a unit that will be spearheaded by new offensive line coach Mike Devlin. The line’s continued progression will be critical toward Harbaugh’s ability to maintain his track record of success with his frequent dependence on the ground game.
The Infusion of Greg Roman's Offense
Harbaugh’s decision to entrust Greg Roman in the role of offensive coordinator has forged their reunion, as Roman held the same position throughout Harbaugh’s tenure as 49ers head coach.
Harbaugh/Roman era 49ers tape is great. They would have hilarious splits all over the place and it worked every single time. pic.twitter.com/42DYyYf5eM
— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) May 8, 2024
San Francisco finished among the top five in attempts per game during his first three years of that sequence (2011-2013) while eclipsing 31+ each season. The 49ers also ranked among the top three in run play percentage three times during that span.
Baltimore Ravens Offense
| Year | Run Play % | Rank | Att/Gm | Rank | Yards/Gm | Rank |
| 2019 | 54 | 1st | 36.7 | 1st | 204.8 | 1st |
| 2020 | 55.8 | 1st | 34.7 | 1st | 194.5 | 1st |
| 2021 | 43.6 | 12th | 30.4 | 3rd | 145.8 | 3rd |
| 2022 | 50 | 3rd | 30.9 | 7th | 160.0 | 2nd |
Roman later served as the architect of Baltimore’s offense from 2019-2022, as the Ravens exceeded 30 attempts per game during four straight seasons and led the league in that category twice. Baltimore also paced the league in run play percentage during 2019 and 2020, while finishing among the top three in rushing yards per game during four consecutive seasons.
The Chargers integrated two former Ravens into the backfield equation before the NFL Draft by reaching an agreement with Gus Edwards in March and securing J.K. Dobbins with a one-year deal in mid-April.
Gus Edwards’ Fantasy Football Outlook
all aboard the gus bus
we’ve agreed to terms with RB gus edwards → https://t.co/FF8jkS1uOd pic.twitter.com/gBReQnhUrI
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) March 13, 2024
Edwards was originally signed as an unrestricted free agent by the Ravens in 2018. Hortiz's familiarity with the five-year-veteran was instrumental in generating Edwards’ westward migration to Los Angeles. Edwards will also be reunited with Roman, and his understanding of Roman's scheme should propel him into a substantial workload as the Chargers maintain a consistent reliance on the run.
| Year | Attempts | Att/Gm | Yards | Yards/Gm | Yards/Att |
| 2018 | 137 | 12.5 | 718 | 65.3 | 5.2 |
| 2019 | 133 | 8.3 | 711 | 44.4 | 5.3 |
| 2020 | 144 | 9 | 723 | 45.2 | 5 |
| 2022 | 87 | 9.7 | 433 | 48.1 | 5 |
| 2023 | 198 | 11.6 | 810 | 47.6 | 4.1 |
| Year | YBC | YBC/Att | YAC | YAC/Att | FPPG |
| 2018 | 356 | 2.6 | 362 | 2.6 | 8.2 |
| 2019 | 335 | 2.5 | 376 | 2.8 | 5.8 |
| 2020 | 334 | 2.3 | 389 | 2.7 | 8 |
| 2022 | 248 | 2.9 | 185 | 2.1 | 6.6 |
| 2023 | 448 | 2.3 | 362 | 1.8 | 11 |
Edwards accumulated 130+ attempts and 700+ rushing yards in each of his first three seasons (2018-2020). His 2,152 yards during that sequence placed him 20th among all backs. Edwards also averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, while finishing among the top eight in yards after contact per attempt during all three seasons (2.6/2.8/2.7).
Ravens fear that RB Gus Edwards suffered a season-ending torn ACL during today's practice, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 9, 2021
Edwards sustained a torn ACL during a September practice in 2021, which sidelined him until Week 7 of the 2022 regular season. He led the Ravens in carries (87/9.7 per game) and rushing yards (433/48.1 yards per game) after he resurfaced while generating a team-high 282 yards after contact. Edwards also accumulated a career-best 198 rushing attempts (11.6 per game) and surpassed his previous career high in rushing yards (810/47.6 per game) in 2023.
Gus Edwards punches it in!
🚌🚌🚌 pic.twitter.com/828QlBd5fM
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) December 31, 2023
Edwards also rose to 12th overall in red-zone attempts (39) and soared into a tie for third in rushing touchdowns (13). That established career highs in both categories, as he had previously failed to exceed 26 carries inside the 20 while only eclipsing three touchdowns once during his first four seasons.
However, he should operate as the Chargers' primary option in the red zone during the early portion of the regular season and could commandeer that role throughout the year. The favorable combination of his downfield running style and understanding of the offense should embed him as an integral resource within the reshaped attack.
J.K. Dobbins’ Fantasy Football Outlook
adding to the backfield ⚡️
we've signed RB j.k. dobbins → https://t.co/NhnVMqz1or pic.twitter.com/1N4VfLDpvm
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) April 18, 2024
The 25-year-old Dobbins has resurfaced in Los Angeles with an opportunity to regain relevance after being limited to just nine games since his promising rookie season.
Dobbins was the fifth running back to be selected during the 2020 NFL Draft when Baltimore secured him with the 55th overall pick. He operated with a team-high 53.3% from Weeks 8-17 during his first season, while averaging 12.1 attempts/72.3 yards per game.
| Year | Games | Attempts | Att/Gm | Yards | Yards/Gm | Yards/Att |
| 2020 | 15 | 134 | 8.9 | 805 | 53.7 | 6 |
| 2022 | 8 | 92 | 11.5 | 520 | 65 | 5.7 |
| 2023 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 22 | 2.8 |
| Year | Games | YBC | YBC/Att | YAC | YAC/Att | FPPG |
| 2020 | 15 | 411 | 3.1 | 394 | 2.9 | 11.2 |
| 2022 | 8 | 319 | 3.5 | 201 | 2.2 | 10.2 |
| 2023 | 1 | 18 | 2.3 | 4 | 0.5 | 11.7 |
Dobbins also finished eighth among all backs with 651 yards, rose to 10th in yards after contact (325), and tied for sixth in touchdowns (seven). Dobbins also vaulted to RB11 in scoring during that span.
Dobbins’ ADP also soared near the top of Round 3 during the 2021 draft season. Unfortunately, recurrent injuries have dramatically impacted his availability since his encouraging rookie season.
Dobbins sustained a torn ACL during the preseason that sidelined him throughout the entire 2021 regular season. He reemerged from his protracted recovery in Week 3 of 2022 but only averaged 3.5 yards per attempt before suffering another issue with his problematic knee in Week 6.
Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins suffers torn Achilles, out for season. pic.twitter.com/YZSdkDfRVs
— NFL (@NFL) September 10, 2023
Dobbins reemerged in Week 14 and erupted for a league-best 397 yards (99.3 per game) on 57 attempts (14.3 per game) from Weeks 14-17. He also averaged a league-high 7.0 yards per attempt during that sequence, while finishing fifth in yards after contact (212).
However, he only carried eight times during the Ravens’ 2023 season opener before sustaining a torn Achilles that prematurely ended yet another season.
SoCal J.K. Dobbins pic.twitter.com/pX4DC3EcVh
— Bridget Condon (@BridgetCondon_) May 20, 2024
Dobbins has regained his health and shares Edwards’ knowledge of Roman’s offense. This should propel him into a weekly allotment of touches within the Chargers’ run-oriented attack.
Kimani Vidal’s Fantasy Football Outlook
a vital piece
welcome to LA, @kimanividal pic.twitter.com/K716tOgGII
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) April 27, 2024
Kimani Vidal became the 16th running back to be selected during the 2024 NFL Draft when Los Angeles secured him in Round 6 (181st overall). He has also emerged among the most intriguing backs from this year’s rookie class despite the lack of significant draft capital.
Vidal led Marietta High School to the Georgia 7A state title as a senior and was rated as a three-star recruit by 247Sports after completing his career with the Blue Devils. Vidal enrolled at Troy University in August 2020 and led the Trojans in attempts and rushing yards during each of his four seasons with the team.
| Year | Attempts | Att/Gm | Yards | Yards/Gm | Yards/Att | TD |
| 2020 | 101 | 11.2 | 516 | 57.3 | 5.1 | 4 |
| 2021 | 152 | 13.8 | 701 | 63.7 | 4.6 | 5 |
| 2022 | 231 | 16.5 | 1132 | 80.9 | 4.9 | 10 |
| 2023 | 297 | 21.2 | 1661 | 118.6 | 5.6 | 14 |
| Career | 781 | 16.3 | 4010 | 83.5 | 5.1 | 33 |
| 2023 | School | Attempts | Yards | TD |
| Ollie Gordon | Oklahoma State | 285 | 1732 | 21 |
| Kimani Vidal | Troy | 297 | 1661 | 14 |
| Cody Schrader | Missouri | 276 | 1627 | 14 |
| Tahj Brooks | Texas Tech | 290 | 1538 | 10 |
| Omarion Hampton | North Carolina | 253 | 1504 | 15 |
Vidal also accumulated nearly 800 rushing attempts (781) during his tenure, including the 528 that he registered during 2022-2023. He also led all backs with 297 attempts (21.2 per game) in 2023, which established a school record.
WATCH: Troy RB Kimani Vidal (@kimanividal) hit a max speed of 21.3 mph on this 69-yard touchdown. #ReelAnalytics @CFBTalkDaily @CoachCraddock
🎥: @SunBeltFB
🔗 https://t.co/orrD059ykP pic.twitter.com/BNJUAPWM96
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) October 11, 2023
The 5-foot-8, 215-pound Vidal also generated 4,010 rushing yards, while vaulting to second overall in yardage during 2023 (1,661/118.6 per game). Vidal also rose to second in yards after contact (1,056) and missed tackles forced (94), according to PFF.
Vidal later completed the 40-yard dash in 4.46, which tied him for sixth among all backs. He was also sixth with his 1.53 split in the 10-yard dash and tied for fourth in the 20-yard shuttle (4.15).
Vidal operates with an encouraging blend of agility, vision, contact balance, and elusiveness, and has displayed durability and competitiveness throughout his collegiate career.
Troy RB Kimani Vidal is probably one of, if not THE best pass blockers in this year's RB draft class.
Plays like this are going to earn him snaps in the NFL.
Oh, and he’s pretty damn good at running the ball too!
Hence why he’s currently my rookie RB7
— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) February 16, 2024
Vidal is also a capable receiver and willing blocker, which will enhance his chances of remaining involved in the team’s backfield rotation.
Fantasy Football Outlook For 2024 Chargers Backfield
'bout to run thru a brick wall pic.twitter.com/pkcRrBRs9g
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) February 2, 2024
Harbaugh and Roman will maintain their steady commitment to the Chargers’ ground game, as Los Angeles is destined to finish among the league leaders in run play percentage and attempts per game. This provides Edwards, Dobbins, and Vidal with paths toward securing ongoing roles during 2024.
comin’ thruuu pic.twitter.com/XkzuWdzUm3
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) March 13, 2024
Edwards is now primed to function as the Chargers' early-down back as the regular season launches. He is also positioned to accrue opportunities near the goal line.
Edwards's involvement as a pass-catcher will be limited, which is consistent with his modest receiving numbers since entering the NFL. He has only accumulated 37 targets (0.8 per game), 30 receptions (0.7 per game), and 374 receiving yards (10.6 per game) since his 2018 rookie season.
However, Edwards’ impending role as a rusher makes him an enticing option at his Round 10 ADP in current best-ball drafts (116/RB38). He can also accumulate fantasy points as a late-round selection near his Round 13 ADP in dynasty startups (148/RB43).
Dobbins’ injury-laden history has tempered expectations when contrasted with the enthusiasm that surged following 2020. His track record of extended absences also elevates the likelihood that Harbaugh and Roman will refrain from entrusting him with substantial workloads.
Dobbins has also averaged 1.5 targets, 1.1 receptions, and 7.4 receiving yards per game during his career, and his involvement this season should primarily consist of carries in a rotation with Edwards and Vidal.
However, this has also reduced the level of investment that is required in order to secure him for your rosters. Dobbins is currently being drafted as a low-end RB4 in Round 13 of best-ball drafts (ADP 148/RB47) and is still attainable in Round 17 of dynasty startup drafts (202/RB61).
beast in the backfield pic.twitter.com/ImdR4Rs8n1
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) April 27, 2024
Vidal will benefit from his favorable landing spot since Harbaugh’s strategic approach will present a sizable number of opportunities within the backfield.
Edwards’ average of 11.6 attempts per game last season was his highest since 2018, and Vidal should garner carries even as Edwards operates primarily on early downs. Vidal’s workload would also rise significantly if Edwards or Dobbins became unavailable for any reason, as Dobbins’ extensive history of health issues cannot be dismissed.
Vidal is also a candidate to collect targets as the receiving numbers that will be registered by Edwards and Dobbins should be minimal. He remains available until Round 14 in current best-ball drafts (165/RB53) and is a viable target during Round 3 of rookie drafts.
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