5 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates or League-Winners: Late-Round Draft Targets for 2025

July 2, 2025

John Johnson's fantasy football league-winners and breakout candidates. His late-round value picks and draft targets for 2025, including T.J. Hockenson, Josh Downs, and more.

In the later rounds, which can be anything after the fifth round in redraft fantasy football leagues, it becomes much, much harder to find serious talent. Nearly all the players that most fantasy managers agree will have nice seasons are taken in the first four rounds.

In the fifth round, things start to dry up, and in the sixth round, most remaining players have serious question marks surrounding their potential scoring ability, health and injury issues, the offense they're playing in, their age, and much more.

So let's break down five players you can draft on many platforms after the fifth round who could be league-winners or at least breakout candidates for 2025.

Fantasy Football League-Winner Candidates

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, Washington Commanders

We already know what a healthy Samuel can do. We're familiar with the fact that he'll have a significant role in Washington. Though he's been highly injury-prone throughout his career, when he's healthy and playing, he's often one of fantasy football's most electric scorers, even if he is inconsistent.

His battle with pneumonia last season appears to have clearly slowed him down. That's not something we should blame him for — anyone who has dealt with pneumonia knows how brutal a sickness it is. It takes months to recover fully from.

Samuel was part of a very effective offensive system in San Francisco. It would have been a bit nicer, though, if he didn't have so much target competition. Tight end George Kittle, running back Christian McCaffrey, and wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings on their own constitute a formidable pass-catching corps.

Washington's group of pass-catchers is nowhere near as fearsome as a whole. WR Terry McLaurin, TE Zach Ertz, and the other receivers who did little last season don't stack up to much. So, Samuel should enjoy much more volume.

Deebo Samuel has led the NFL in YAC/rec for 5 STRAIGHT YEARS!

while Deebo has dealt with injuries & fallen back in some aspects, he still brings the YAC:

2024: 8.3 YAC/rec, #1 of 64
2023: 8.8 YAC/rec, #1 of 61
2022: 8.8 YAC/rec, #1 of 68
2021: 10.0 YAC/rec, #1 of 67
2020: 12.1… https://t.co/kQsWoCeXJW

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 23, 2025

Commanders' offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury leans very heavily into the screen passing game, which should be perfect for Samuel.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings

Hockenson could easily finish as the overall TE1 this season. He'll be another offseason removed from his ACL tear when Week 1 rolls around, and he'll have a highly talented, though inexperienced, quarterback taking over the reins.

The elite offensive system he works in, and having wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to stress defenses and take away coverage attention from him from cornerbacks, will give him the matchups he loves against linebackers and slot corners, who simply can't cover him.

Let’s talk TJ HOCKENSON..

- Missed 7 games due to injury in 24
- 0 TDs & < 500 yards receiving

BUT due a big bounce back!

🔸2.61 YPRR (3rd in NFL)
🔹35.6% TPRR (1st in NFL)
🔸Fully healthy & Security blanket for JJ McCarthy
🔹TE2 & TE4 in 2022 & 2023

pic.twitter.com/gupu466I2g

— The Dynasty Grill (@FFDynastyGrill) June 17, 2025

Hockenson is one of the league's best tight ends. Though he's currently being drafted as the TE5, his current ADP on FantasyPros is at spot 88 overall, which is around the seventh round. That seems pretty cheap for a TE that we already know has league-winning upside.

Great players in great offenses are always great to take bets on. Hockenson is still only 27 years old. Depending on the platform you play on, you could get him for a big steal!

Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Downs is unlikely to ever play outside of three-WR sets, unfortunately. He's not a very imposing figure -- he's just 5-foot-9 and 171 pounds. Receivers playing outside and in two-WR sets tend to need to be able to block. Downs likely will never be effective at blocking defenders weighing 200 pounds or more.

Still, when he is on the field, he's a fantastic separator on short and intermediate routes. He gets away from slot corners effectively and consistently with his agility and short-area quickness, making him an ideal target on those passes -- and a potential PPR cheat code.

Josh Downs might be the most slept-on player in the entire league 😴 pic.twitter.com/yswYFuJYgl

— Underdog Fantasy - Josh & Hayden (@UDFootballShow) June 25, 2025

I have absolutely nothing against Downs. What I do have plenty against is Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder), who was by far the worst quarterback in the league on short passes, even from clean pockets, and on horizontally-breaking routes. Those happen to be exactly what Downs excels at.

Downs was an easy must-start player when QB Joe Flacco was on the field. With Richardson, you never had any clue what you were getting.

Anthony Richardson was unrivaled for worst short accuracy from a clean pocket in the NFL in 2024 https://t.co/HK6sLFo14T pic.twitter.com/RD7cQBqbjI

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 19, 2025

While Downs' current starting QB, Daniel Jones, isn't a great quarterback, he can at least hit his receivers reasonably well on short routes. That might be all it takes for Downs to become a PPR monster.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

It's very important, when evaluating players for fantasy football, to give credit properly where it's due and to blame those who deserve to be blamed for a player's production, whether it's good or poor. Maye didn't have a statistically solid rookie season, but it's hard to blame him.

That's because he was working with the worst offensive line in the NFL and the worst receiving room in the NFL. It's remarkably difficult to succeed in spite of those odds, so it's no surprise that Maye struggled in Year 1. The film and some of his advanced statistics are promising, though.

Some big-boy quarterbacking from Drake Maye pic.twitter.com/KqeRBFdO1Z

— Bradley Locker (@Bradley_Locker) June 26, 2025

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams had numerous excuses made for him, citing the poor coaching staff and his "worst in the league" offensive line. However, both film and advanced analytics showed that Williams was a terribly inaccurate quarterback who often ran himself into sacks.

The same excuses aren't being made for Maye, even though it's incredibly obvious that his supporting cast was worse. All it would take are some moderate upgrades to the OL and WR units for Maye to break out. Drafting a few offensive linemen, as well as adding some receivers, are steps in the right direction.

Drake Maye's rushing ability remains under-appreciated

+ 2nd in scramble rate (10.79%)
+ 6th in YPG (32.4)
+ 1st in YPC (7.80)
+ 1st in explosive rush (16.7%)
(@FantasyPtsData)

With vast roster improvements in NE, Maye's fantasy ceiling is a top 5-7 QB imo. He's currently QB15.

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) June 24, 2025

Maye's good accuracy, excellent deep passing, and especially his rushing ability give him plenty of upside. According to my analysis, the most significant boost to his value will come from the drafting of wide receiver Kyle Williams. Williams has the speed to stretch the field and highly underrated separation abilities.

The rookie will bring his excellent yards-after-catch skills to the Patriots, who are desperately in need of such a playmaker. The fake breakout of WR Kayshon Boutte, that "happened" because the Pats didn't have any other options, isn't much of a thing you should be excited for.

Patriots rookie Kyle Williams is so good at transitioning to a runner after the catch. pic.twitter.com/awgUTPsRqE

— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) May 27, 2025

Williams will also help Maye rack up "free yardage" on plays where he's fed screens and short passes and gains an impressive amount of extra yards. Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes feast on screen plays to boost their passing production.

All these factors, along with the addition of new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and, hopefully, running back TreVeyon Henderson, if he can prove effective as a pass-catcher, will help Maye achieve a QB1 season.

Kyle Williams, WR, New England Patriots

It naturally follows that the highly talented Williams will have a breakout rookie season if Maye is as good as my analysis predicts. Williams is a confusing prospect for me -- not because it was hard for me to evaluate his game, but because he simply hasn't been getting enough hype in fantasy leagues.

A 31-year-old WR, Stefon Diggs (knee), who tore his ACL around midseason last year, is expected to step in, miraculously recover from his injury much quicker than normal, and return to his prior effectiveness. Teams don't often have a 31-year-old WR1 with a bad knee.

Kyle Williams

Final Season Washington State
- Back-To-Back 3 TD Games
- Five 100+ Yard Games
- 1,198 Yards, 14 TDs

Drafted to Patriots
- Immediate Opportunity
- Drake Maye Promising
- Wide Open WR Room

Player Comps
- Ladd McConkey
- Jayden Reed

NE WR1?pic.twitter.com/yvOCZUYKZF

— Joe Orrico (@JoeOrricoFF) June 25, 2025

Williams' release package is highly effective. He bounds off the line with quick, long strides, often easily creating separation against matched-up cornerbacks. He's very effective against man coverage and has the athletic tools to stand up to most of the league's corners, albeit with his quickness rather than his strength.

He's a bit undersized, but smaller receivers have been finding increasing success in today's NFL. Players like the aforementioned Downs have established productive roles despite poor quarterback situations. Williams is also quite a bit bigger than he is, so he could reasonably play the "X" and "Z" WR positions.

Cam Ward tossing bombs to Kyle Williams at Wash State in 2023. First clip is him roasting Travis Hunter 1-on-1 at the LOS.

Once again, Kyle Williams is flying here. pic.twitter.com/HSooBqXnJb

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) April 4, 2025

He'll likely be used all over the field. He has excellent speed running after the catch, so slant routes and screen passes could be his bread and butter. But in addition to his acceleration and long speed, he's a great ball tracker and does a good job using his body to box out defenders, making catches down the field.

My analysis has led me to believe that Williams will likely become New England's WR1 relatively soon. Diggs might not even play in the first few games, giving the rookie plenty of time to build chemistry with his new QB. I firmly believe that, at this point, the first-year pro is simply a better receiver than his injured veteran counterpart.

So I'm inclined to think we have an upcoming breakout on our hands.

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