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Blake's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 4 (2023), and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leary of their hot streaks?
With another week of baseball in the books and boy was it a doozy. As I sit here watching my Seattle Kraken in their first-ever playoff game, I can't help but reflect on some of the most interesting (to me) performances of the weekend. Guys like Bryson Stott are proving they're more than just a powerless, hitting savant. Juan Soto starting to reaffirm the fact that this might just be the version of him we get from now on. And Jarred Kelenic proving he really does got that dawg in him.
As interesting as it is to key in on guys who can add some sneaky fantasy baseball relevance to your life, it's also important to understand who won't. No matter how enticing some guys might be, the long-term value they'll offer is far less than what they're showing you currently. That's the beauty of the early season. It's on you to decide who's for real and who's pulling a fast one on ya, and it's on me to make sure I'm doing my best to have you as informed as possible.
With my last two iterations of this article, I broke down the hottest free agents and why each of them should have you hesitant moving forward. This time around we have some larger sample sizes to make more informed analysis with. Again, I want to reiterate the point of this article. It's not to tell you to avoid a player, it's to inform you of why said player may not be as excellent as a pickup as you're hoping. A "buyer beware", if you will.
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Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
If Josh Lowe wasn't essentially a full-time platoon player I'd probably be a lot more excited about him. He's shown some good improvement from last season, including cutting his strikeout rate from 33.3% in 2022 to just 17.4% this season. He's also seen himself already double his home run total from the year prior. He's hit four already compared to two last season, and his six doubles aren't that far off the 12 he hit in 52 games a year prior.
The reality of the situation is that Lowe hasn't really made strides in the power department. His home runs are a nice touch, but his 85.6 MPH average exit velocity is almost three MPH less than in 2022. His sweet spot rate has also dipped 13% to 34.3%. He has just nine batted ball events over 100 MPH and only another three above 95 MPH. He has raised his launch angle, pull and fly ball rates, but he doesn't have the power to make full use of the new swing.
He may be able to end the year as a guy hitting closer to.275, but he's already been sat five times in 18 games due to lefty starters. That trend doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
Logan O'Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels
Coming into this season, I was fairly high on O'Hoppe. He showed a ton of intangibles in the minors that I thought would transfer well to the major leagues. He flashed a good hit tool with above-average power. Now that he's at the major league level, it seems the only tool that's followed him is power...and even that's struggled as of late.
Currently hitting .244 with a .847 OPS, he seems to have turned into a one-trick pony. The 92.4 MPH average exit velocity and 16.1% barrel rate are what you want. Same with the four home runs he's put up already. But his 30% strikeout rate has him in just the 14th percentile and his 37.9% whiff rate just the seventh percentile. When he makes contact, it's excellent. He just...needs to make contact.
In fact, he's had over one hit in a game only one time this season, back on April 2 against Oakland. Combine that with the fact that he's hit no higher than eighth in the lineup all year and I'm hesitant to roster him. In two catcher leagues, he holds value. In deep leagues, he holds value. Outside of that, there are better, more consistent options available. At least right now.
Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays
My intention with this list was not to rain on the Tampa Bay Rays parade but...here we are. The team as a whole is having a ton of fun playing baseball, they're scoring a ton of runs and winning, but it's tending to inflate some players' stats. I understand this is fantasy baseball and good statistical output is what you look for. When you see someone with inflated numbers shooting up the roster percentage boards on the waiver wire, though, it's something someone needs to point out.
The simplest way I can put this is...Isaac Paredes is not a good fantasy baseball player. He never has been, and he hasn't done a single thing to change that in 2023. The only thing he does that is exciting in some way is his 95th-percentile whiff rate. He's currently hitting .236 with three home runs and 10 RBI in 16 games. Just because the team is riding high doesn't mean his roster percentage should be as well.
He currently has an 86.9 MPH average exit velocity, .196 xBA, .308 xSLG, and 23.7% hard-hit rate. He's also striking out at a career-worst 23.3% and walking a career-low 5.4%. As much as I love dual or even triple position eligibility, there are some guys just better left on waivers.
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Sticking with my theme of trying really hard to point out at least one thing I like about the player, the cutter that Keller added to his repertoire is excellent. The 24.5% usage rate is his highest of any pitch and it sports a .236 xBA and 29.8% whiff rate. The problem is, Keller is becoming less of a swing-and-miss pitcher with each start.
Over his last three starts, his whiff rate has been 18%, 20%, and 19%. His upcoming matchups don’t offer much in the way of excitement either. He’s currently in line to face Cincinnati next at home. Not actually a bad matchup. He then faces the Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Orioles, and Diamondbacks. All matchups in which I’m not overly excited to start a Pirates pitcher.
If you want to start him against the Reds his next go around, be my guest. Beyond that though, I’m worried his declining whiff rate is going to come back to haunt him.
Shea Langeliers, Oakland Athletics
2023 has had some fairly surprising catchers thus far. Guys like Travis D’Arnaud early on, Elias Diaz, and Jonah Heim have had excellent starts to the year. Langeliers is someone whose name could be listed amongst the early surprises, but shouldn’t be. Currently hitting .250 with two doubles and three home runs seems nice, but it doesn’t look to be sustainable.
This season, Langeliers has changed from a light-hitting, ground ball heavy, pull hitter into an even lighter-hitting, flyball-heavy pull hitter. His launch angle has jumped from 16.9 degrees to 26.5 degrees. His flyball rate has jumped to 59%. All the while his average exit velocity is all the way down at 86.9 MPH.
What worries me the most is his inability to hit fastballs this year. Seeing them 47% of the time, he’s hitting just .200 off of them with a .200 SLG. Couple that with his .164 xBA and .212 xSLG and you have an issue. Fastballs, above all else, are something a productive baseball player needs to be even just average against. With not much else in that lineup in terms of talent, he’ll get plenty of playing time but look elsewhere for your fantasy baseball production.
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