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Juan Carlos Blanco highlights the top FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks for 4/16/21, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
We’re set for a more traditional night-heavy Friday schedule in Major League Baseball, with 14 of the 15 games carrying a first-pitch time of 7:05pm ET or later. There’s plenty to like about a slate that truly offers a bit of everything, including multiple aces on the hill, as well as venues such as Coors Field, Fenway Park and Great American Ballpark.
Partly as a result of some of those hitter-friendly stadiums being a part of the proceedings and some suspect arms also taking their turns in the rotation, we have appealing hitting options at each point on the salary scale. We’ll highlight one at each position, as well as a pair of pitchers I feel are in particularly advantageous spots and serve as pivots off the masterful but expensive Jacob deGrom, who’s in an interesting spot on the road in Colorado.
I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 4/16/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like DraftKings, and other sports.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Some games today have been postponed due to weather: Mets-Rockies, Blue Jays-Royals, White Sox-Red Sox
Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:
Max Scherzer – WSH vs. ARI ($10,400)
This one doesn’t exactly require a ton of supporting evidence, but there certainly isn’t a lack of it. Scherzer did give up four home runs to Atlanta his first start of the year, but by his second turn Sunday against the Dodgers, the future Hall of Famer looked like himself while limiting the defending champs to an earned run on three hits over six innings. Scherzer now gets a step down in competition in the form of a Diamondbacks team that’s averaging 1.5 runs fewer per game on the road (4.5) than at home (6.0) and that’s produced a .218 average, .297 OBP, -5.3 wRAA and .296 wOBA against righties thus far, and a .199/.267/.350 slash against that handedness on the road. Scherzer has compiled 33 and 34 FD points in his first two starts, but Friday’s matchup is the type that could certainly push into the 40s, at minimum, for the first time this season.
Potential Alternate Play
Adrian Houser – MIL vs. PIT ($7,300)
This is another selection that also speaks for itself to a certain degree. It involves another talented right-hander taking the hill in his home park, but at a significant savings over Scherzer and with about as good a matchup. Houser has faced a pair of talented lineups from each league in his first two starts of the season and held the Twins and Cardinals to just two earned runs over 10 innings on his way to a 1.80 ERA. The Pirates have garnered 165 plate appearances on the road against right-handed pitching thus far this season and produced a .184/.273/.327 slash, .271 wOBA, NL-low 25.0 percent hard-contact rate and 26.1 percent strikeout rate, underscoring how favorable the scenario is for Houser. Additionally, Pittsburgh is averaging just 2.8 runs per road game thus far, and while the Pirates’ 10.2 percent walk rate against right-handed pitching does play a bit toward the control issues that Houser can experience, he has the talent to usually work out of trouble (89.0 percent strand rate through first two starts).
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Matt Olson – 1B, OAK vs. DET ($3,100)
Olson’s current .235 average that doesn’t exactly make him pop out of a plethora of appealing first base candidates on such a large slate, but his power upside, handedness and matchup certainly does. To begin with, the slugger went deep for his second home run of the season as part of a two-hit effort against the Tigers on Thursday, and he’s already notched three barrels across his first 42 plate appearances of the campaign. Olson is also teed up for a matchup against Jose Urena, who’s been tagged by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .276/.344/.468 line, .343 wOBA, 5.49 xFIP and 1.5 HR/9 during his career. Olson has lit up right-handed pitching for 81 of his 104 career homers, a .367 wOBA, a .276 ISO and 47.5 percent hard-contact rate, while Urena, with his minuscule 12.3 percent career strikeout rate against righties, is ill-equipped to exploit some of Olson’s swing-and-miss tendencies.
DJ LeMahieu – 2B, NYY vs. TAM ($3,500)
LeMahieu should come into Friday’s matchup against Michael Wacha refreshed after getting a rest day for the Yankees’ most recent game Wednesday, and he’ll be returning to a plum matchup. Not only has LeMahieu already enjoyed success against Wacha in the past, but his .323/.371/.515 slash and 27 homers against righties since the start of the 2019 season make him an excellent bat to attack the struggling veteran with. Wacha has opened the season pitching to a 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP across nine innings over his first two appearances, and he’s given up a .350 average and .448 wOBA to the first 26 right-handed batters he’s faced along the way. Wacha’s problems with righty bats are nothing new – he’s yielded a .786 OPS and .336 wOBA to that handedness over his career – while LeMahieu is already boasting a .430 wOBA and .240 ISO across his first 30 PAs versus righties this year. What’s more, the veteran second baseman’s elite plate discipline thus far versus right-handed pitching (16.7 percent walk rate) dovetails well for fantasy purposes with Wacha’s career average of nearly three walks per nine innings surrendered to righty bats.
Josh Donaldson – 3B, MIN at LAA ($3,000)
Donaldson made a successful return from the injured list Wednesday against the Red Sox before getting the day off Thursday, and he should be right back in the starting nine Friday to begin his season in earnest. Donaldson draws a matchup to start the game against southpaw Andrew Heaney, who did bounce back nicely from a disastrous first start of the season his last time out, but who’s also surrendered a .331 wOBA and 77 of 86 career homers allowed to right-handed hitters, along with a 1.8 HR/9 and 41.6 percent hard-contact rate to that handedness at home specifically. Donaldson has underperformed against lefties the last couple of seasons, but he still boasts a massive .946 OPS, .401 wOBA and .287 ISO versus southpaws, with those three figures checking in at an even more impressive 1.026, .432 and .324, respectively, when facing lefties in road parks.
Bo Bichette – SS, TOR at KC ($3,900)
(UPDATE @5:00 PM ET: Blue Jays-Royals has been postponed)
Bichette’s outstanding start to the season includes a .302/.345/.604 slash with four doubles, four home runs and 10 RBI across his first 58 plate appearances, along with a .428 wOBA, .327 ISO and 40.5 percent hard-contact rate. While Bichette has just six plate appearances against lefties this season, he’s tagged southpaws for a .348 average, .977 OPS,.404 wOBA, .239 ISO and 30.3 percent line-drive rate over 100 career plate appearances. Royals left-hander Mike Minor is a savvy veteran, but he’s allowed a 1.3 HR/9 to right-handed hitters during his career and has a thorny matchup against Bichette, who owns career .400 and .363 wOBAs against the four-seam fastball and changeup, respectively -- the two pitches Minor has thrown most often over his 11-plus seasons.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Dominic Smith – OF, NYM at COL ($3,700)
(UPDATE @ 4:00 PM ET: With Mets-Rockies postponed, suggesting Randy Arozarena as an alternative at same salary)
It’s naturally always a good idea to get some Coors exposure when the Rockies’ home park is on the slate, and Smith represents one of the best paths to doing just that. The left-handed-swinging 25-year-old owns a .286 average and .536 slugging percentage over his first 29 plate appearances, following a breakout 2020 in which he slashed .316/.377/.616 with 32 extra-base hits and 42 RBI over 50 games. Smith is an excellent bat to target Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzales with, as the Mets slugger owns a .354 wOBA, .250 ISO and .845 OPS versus right-handed pitching on the road in his career. Meanwhile, Gonzales has already yielded a .318/.400/.409 line and .363 wOBA to the first 25 left-handed batters he’s faced in 2021, along with a 6.73 xFIP and 30.0 percent line-drive rate. Then, when Gonzales exits, consider Smith will get his crack at a Colorado bullpen that’s allowed an MLB-high 1.094 OPS and .459 wOBA to the first 126 left-handed bats its relievers have faced this season.
Mauricio Dubon - OF, SF at MIA ($2,100)
(UPDATE @ 4:00 PM ET: With Dubon out of lineup, suggesting David Dahl at $2,700 or Joey Gallo $3,100 as other value outfield alternatives)
Dubon is our “leap of faith” large-field tournament value play of the bunch Friday, as the 26-year-old has admittedly gotten off to a forgettable start at the plate in the new season. However, there’s a case to be made for a flyer on Dubon, particularly at his salary. For starters, his current .143/.217/.143 line over his first 23 plate appearances is a clear anomaly – Dubon came into 2021 with a .274/..325/.407 line over the 84 games covering his first two MLB campaigns. Additionally, he put together an extensive track record of success at the plate over his long minor-league career, forging a .302/.350/.429 slash over 590 games from 2014-19. Then, Dubon has been on the wrong side of Lady Luck early this season, as he sports an impressive 25.0 percent line-drive rate and 37.5 percent hard-contact rate, yet has been saddled with an atypically low .188 BABIP that’s going to inevitably rise a good bit. Finally, consider Marlins left-handed starter Daniel Castano could make for a good target, as Dubon owns a career .295/.367/.455 slash, modest 18.4 percent strikeout rate and a .349 wOBA in 49 career plate appearances versus southpaws on the road.
Adam Eaton – OF, CWS at BOS ($3,600)
(UPDATE @ 4:00 PM ET: With White Sox-Red Sox postponed, suggesting Nick Castellanos as an alternative at same salary)
Eaton seems rejuvenated in his return to the South Side of Chicago after four seasons away, taking advantage of his inclusion in a highly potent lineup to post an .827 OPS with three doubles, three homers and 10 RBI across his first 54 plate appearances. Eaton is already doing his usual damage against right-handed pitching – he’s sporting a .289/.400/.526 line against that handedness while hitting all three of his blasts and driving in nine of his runs versus that handedness. Those numbers mesh well with Eaton’s career-long metrics in opposite-handed matchups, as he’s slugged 58 of his 63 career homers against righties while generating a .350 wOBA and .803 OPS. Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has been tough versus lefty hitters in this season’s small sample, but he yielded a .333/.400/.667 line and .442 wOBA to them in 2020 and an .865 OPS and .357 wOBA over a 201-batter sample in 2019. It’s also worth noting Eaton has been an excellent four-seam fastball hitter throughout his long career, posting a .383 wOBA versus the pitch that ranks as Pivetta’s most-often utilized offering each season by far.
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